Viral marketing & probability

I’ve spoke before about the truth about viral marketing, and our probability of viral marketing success. So here’s some number to help us all quantify it with the viral marketing haven that is Youtube.

  • The average youtube video gets watched for 6 seconds.
  • 2 hours of video are uploaded every minute.
  • Almost half the videos on youtube get viewed less than 10 times. (1 in 2.4)
  • Only 0.25% of videos get more than 10,000 views
  • A random sample of 10,000 videos uploaded received the following: 2,226 videos with no views in their first month, 237 with 1 view, 158 with 10 views, and just 23 with 100.
  • Only 1 in 3.1 million videos will get more than 1 million views

Sure we can increase our chances by creating great content, and frequency of posts. But getting a viral hit is like winning the lotto. Which for startups means it’s fine to play, but not to back our future on it.

Kraft needs lesson in ‘Crowd Sourcing’

The bungled Kraft Vegemite iSnack 2.0 comes down to a really simple problem. Something they (Kraft) do all the time, and I should know, I used to work there.

They can never seem to fully embrace new ideas in their entirety. They want to innovate, but leave the final decisions to senior management. They tend ignore research, or take snippets from consumers. They only ever go half way.

Vegemite iSnack 2.0

Latest news is that they are changing the name – your jar might be a collectors item in 10 years!

What Kraft should’ve done:

Not ask for ideas to chose from, but let the crowd choose and vote – like Digg! It’s crowd sourcing 101. If you want an opinion from the crowd, then you’ve got to let them decide too. That way you have them ‘on your side’.  To choose a brand name for 48,000 is as pointless as letting a very uncool CEO decide. Which is ultimately what they did.

Startup blog says: Embrace the crowd entirely, or don’t bother engaging them.

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The deception of history

Reading about Craigs list the other day I started thinking about business history and strategy. As entrepreneurs we often get fooled by the deception of history. And it’s easy to see why. All the business books and articles we read on success are based on what someone or some company we respect did. The problem with this is that the world lives in a state of flux, and what worked then, most certainly wont work now. This is where the Craig’s list example comes to the fore.

Craigslist Head office

Would a 3 color page of hyperlinks which looks like the internet did in 1994 work today? Highly unlikely. Craigslist works now, because it worked well then. It had things working in it’s favour like the ‘in crowd’ in the Bay area spreading the word. That it was first to market with an on-line classified. Now these legacy issues become a strategic proposition which is worth maintaining. What it doesn’t mean is that it’s a strategic template worth copying for Startup X. It’s also less likely we’ll get the support needed from the web community or the investors needed.

The same can be said for pretty much any startup with an interesting history.

A social networking site which is set up for alumni of an Ivy League University probably wouldn’t work.

A trading website where auctions are used to develop the perfect market place probably wouldn’t work.

An on-line retailer which aims to sell every book available in the world probably wouldn’t work.

As entrepreneurs, what we are better off understanding is the insights into why things worked, and try and leverage human behavior in developing a strategic direction to launch our business.

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David Elsewhere – 20 years in the making

You may have heard the name David Elsewhere, he’s an incredible dancer who has a style all his own. I wanted to feature him here on start up blog for a few reasons.

  1. There is nothing more niche than what he does (a dance style called liquiding)
  2. He’s been doing it for 20 years
  3. He didn’t stop when rap dancing went out of fashion
  4. He does it because he loves it. No other reason.
  5. He has now made a career out of it, and is an internet superstar. (Just youtube his name)

His major collaboration video has been viewed more than 200 million times. But the internet and youtube didn’t make him famous. His dancing did, it just so happens that the vehicles to promote his amazing stuff came along some 15 years after his preparation began. So here’s an interview to pay homage to staying the course, passion activities and the uber niche. Big ups from startup blog.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6V4H9RbbalA]

Patience pays.

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Spoof advertising – Campbells

If you’re from Australia and older than 30 you’ll remember these old school macho advertisements from Solo ‘The thirst crusher’. They we’re the equivalent of ‘extreme sports’ in the 80’s which is pretty hilarious as is the solo man idea. If your not over 20 and from Australia; watch them and keep reading:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aHNKziN-fE&feature=related]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mJSOaO7cAU&feature=related]

And Campbells the soup company have recently aired a spoof version of the solo ads, which I’ll admit I’m a sucker for – in pure entertainment terms, I love it. A great version which has a reasonable link to their product – a retro can of chunky food.

Only problem, is that advertising isn’t film making, and I’m not rushing out to buy crappy canned food any time soon. Sorry Campbells, nice try, but no increase in sales is coming your way, even if some kind of advertising award does.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLIIKrJ6nnI]

Startups out there – when advertising be original, it’s about selling, not comedy.

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Threadless – quotes from Ross Zietz

On Monday night I went to the Threadless in Conversation shindig in Melbourne.

Picture 23

In truth I expected a bit more on the business side, and little less on the design fan boy love.

In the spirit of creating value I have written below some quotes I took from Ross which are in blue, and my thoughts are underneath which are in black.

‘We’d rather just have a conversation’

– Still largely one way. We listen, but to those who deserve to be heard.

‘Started in 2000’

– Another example of overnight success taking nearly 10 years.

‘We saw the idea for threadless and said what if we just did it?’

– Again ideas are free, ideas are everywhere, doing creates winning.

‘I saw a tiny little ad for it in a magazine & just submitted a design & got hooked’

– Action….

‘My interview was in an Irish pub on St Patrick’s day drinking green beer’

– Pretty cool, why do people sit in stupid rooms to conduct interviews, maybe alcohol should be at all job interviews?

‘My title (Art Director) doesn’t really represent what I do. I do all kinds of different stuff’

– Job titles are an outdated idea from the Industrial Era.

‘ Our prints are not selling well…’

– Even successful businesses have flops.

‘Interacting with the community is the first part of my job’

– They all say that. But I wouldn’t know as I prefer Neighborhoodies.

‘My eduction didn’t prepare me for it. It was on the job I learned.’

– Education is just a ticket to the ball game.

‘People want to win, so they tell their friends’

– Viral stuff is about them, it’s never about us.

‘We’re going back to American Apparel. Custom is too hard’

– They create the Illusion of customisation.

‘We’re good friends with the guys at Twitter’

– Collaboration and relationships win in business. Who you know matters.

‘They opened a store because it was a cool idea and people asked’

– Sounds like a diworsification to me.

‘Whenever we have a sale volume goes up like a 100%’

– Even cool brands have price sensitive customers.

‘We email voters to remind them when a shirt they voted on is printed’

– Sounds like a little like spam, er sorry, bacn, but it must work.

‘The oldest person in our company is like 35’

– Is culture age dependent? I’m really curious. Comment if you have the answer.

‘We had a CFO who was like 50 or something and he just didn’t fit in’

– hmm, Did you let him?

‘Our team at threadless has 32 people’

– Sounds like a reasonably tight organisation. We don’t need huge numbers of people to get stuff done.

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