Headlines from the Future

For your reading pleasure, I’ve included 10 headlines from the Future. While they seem unrealistic, they are all based on current and historical exponential improvements in these technologies. Every single one is a predicted reality – by scientists who work in these fields. Under each I’ve put a link or a little description for context as to why these headlines aren’t mere science fiction. Enjoy.

‘Robot performs first cancer surgery unaided by Doctors’ – 2027

Minimally assisted surgery is already here. It’s a relatively small step from here, not a leap, this timeline is possibly too long.

‘First synthetic human born’ – 2028

Artificial sperm and eggs have already been created to give birth to rats. Doctors say that synthetic babies are just a few years away, without the need for cloning. In addition 3D printed male sperm cells were recently created.

‘NanoTech foglets make food out of thin air! ‘ – 2045

I’ll start by saying foglets are tiny robots which can reorganise molecules. If robotics get small enough, and materials smart enough, we’ll be able to create everything from nothing. This is a great summary of how far we’ve come and why it seems inevitable to reorganise atoms eventually.

‘First human connects to internet via neural lace’ – 2037

Connecting a human to the internet, with information transactions occurring by thought has already been done. Now it’s simply a game of improving connectivity, computation, inference and resolution.

‘Brad Pitt’s new movie – 100% AI version of him’ – 2032

This is also probably an understatement – a good chance this will happen sooner. I don’t even have to provide a link of how good deep fakes have gotten. The way Tom Cruise is looking at 59, I’m not even sure that’s him! But we can be sure of this, they’ll be very few new movie stars, maybe we’ve minted our final batch, because big movie studios love nothing more than saving money by extending franchises, I’m sure they’d recycle actors too if they could!

*Bonus: Get 2 people to join my email list (this link) and get a 15 minute one on one mentoring session with me. Just reply email to this to tell me who joined thanks to you. I’ll change your life. Promise.

’60 year old gets 18 year old lung back with lab grown lung transplant’ – 2029

Just this week an ear which was 3D printed with bio ink was transplanted onto a human using their own cells to form it. The path from here is actually quite proximal and linear.

‘First ever full human brain simulated in cloud’ – 2028

Side note: we are by stealth, right now storing our lives, memories, plans, ideas, relationships, knowledge and work in the cloud…. But at a deeper level work is being done to upload entire humans minds.

‘World eats more meat grown in labs than farms’ – 2040

For starters, this process is already possible. The world’s first lab burger cost a cool $330,000. Since that time the cost of production of ‘lab meat’ has declined significantly. Today it costs around $6000 for a quarter-pound of beef and by 2024, it is estimated that the cost of a meat patty could be as low as $5 – not far off an acceptable cost for a gourmet patty these days. It’s important to note, that lab meat is the exact same molecular structure. You will not be able to know, see or taste the difference. While this might sound crazy, 50 years from now killing an animal to eat it, will be regarded as worse than slavery.

‘Renewable energy greater than 50% of global usage’ – 2029

It’s already above this is many countries. Australia, a renewable laggard already has 29% of all electricity and 24% of all energy usage from renewable sources. Pure economic forces will drive this. Free energy is a very enticing price.

The net out take should be this: It is easy to forget how many technological advances we take for granted today: a light switch, a car, air travel, air conditioning, TV, satellites. This is before we get radical and consider things like AI, 3D printing and crispr. Even the internet and a smart phone were literal science fiction when I grew up, and yet, here we are.

If you want to navigate the future, it pays to remember, that something is impossible, right until the moment it happens. Believing in ‘fantasy‘, isn’t just fun, it gives us a chance to participate in its creation.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve.

Graduate to Greatness

To make it to the upper echelon in any field, we need to be able to do one thing:

Graduate from competence to confidence.

The foundation of any career is technical capability. You need to prove you are a competent accountant, lawyer, marketer, electrician, whatever. This is your time in the field and getting some metaphorical dirt under your fingernails. It’s when you convert study and training into action. It’s also when you find out that nothing is more valuable than real world experience. At this point in your career, you ARE the factor of production. It’s a vital stage to becoming a leader in any field – people want to know you’ve had your time on the tools. But you can’t stay there. You have to graduate.

The next phase in your career is all about confidence. In fact, you don’t even have to be the greatest ‘technocrat’ to rise above. It’s all about the belief you have in yourself to be more than someone who manages tasks and projects.

This time, there is no graduation ceremony.

You need to decide when you deserve and want to be more – and it is all about attitude. The ironic thing is the people who give you the chance to lead in your field are looking for the signs that you’ve made this internal decision. They are not looking for technical ability. They are looking for vision and leadership. When it comes to decision makers around you and your career, one simple thing is true: they believe what you believe. If you don’t believe in yourself, they’ll be able smell it.

The reason this matters is that you’ll never be able to know everything in your field.  No one does, no one ever will. There’ll always be someone who knows more, and the next generation coming up will have new technical skills and abilities you won’t. Yes, it’s important to be across what’s new and its impact, but going back to study its implementation is a fool’s errand. Leave that to the newbies. If you go there, you simply drag yourself back into the competence pool. You become an undergraduate again.

Don’t think for a second that Steve Jobs was writing code for the new iPhone, Elon Musk is sketching out blueprints for new car batteries or Jeff Bezos is designing his new in-home drones. They have competent people to do that for them. How many times have you seen people who are great technocrats, the best at getting stuff done, who know more than anyone in their field, but never seem to get to the top? It’s because they didn’t graduate. I used to write code, build new technologies and be very hands on – but now, I get other people to do that for me instead. My job is to think, write and speak about technology and economics. I graduated and it was the best thing I ever did in my career. I didn’t ask for permission. I just did it.

Sometimes you might even need to change places to graduate to confidence. For example, you may be overlooked for promotional opportunities in your current organisation. As soon as you are overlooked – move on. If management doesn’t have confidence in you – leave and leave quick. Go somewhere where you can refresh your self confidence and your personal brand. I’ve seen people who were out of favour in one company, change places and go on to become CEO elsewhere or start a successful business. The world’s a big place.

Next week, I’ll lay out the three competencies that great careers are built on, once you graduate from the operational level.

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Keep thinking,

Steve. 

Dealing With Uncertainty – COVID-19 series

The toughest decisions to make are when we don’t have all of the information. The COVID crisis we face today is a classic example. Every decision, even policy choices, from our most revered experts need to be made on the fly. Decisions will have to be made in the knowledge that by tomorrow or next week, we’ll learn something new.

This is a great allegory for life.

What we should never do is to judge ourselves, or those trying to help us, for making a mistake on something we could not have possibly known yesterday. The world without a pandemic is filled with ambiguity. What we have now is a magnifier.

What we mustn’t do is wait. We must use what little knowledge we do have and move forward. We can’t wait until we know it all, because in all probability, we never will. New information will always present itself after we needed it. If we are facing a career crisis or business challenges right now, we must still act. Work with what we know and navigate changes, as new information comes to hand.

It’s like walking in a fog.

On a foggy night where you can only see 50 feet in front, it’s only after we walk that 50 feet, that the next 50 feet of the journey is revealed. If we need to change direction, we can. But we’ll be further ahead than if we had waited, and we’ll be able to see and know more. Wanting too much knowledge creates inertia and leaves us behind the courageous few who actually did something.

Yes, it’s scary, but sometimes we have to forge ahead through a fog, regardless.

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Keep thinking,

Steve. 

 

Mega Trends – COVID-19 series

This week you can watch my blog for 5 mins instead of reading it! In the first episode of #SteveFeed – Protein for the mind, I explore the #5 Mega Trends emerging from a Post Covid Economy. The five things every business, brand and individual needs to be aware of as we attempt to navigate our way out of this crisis.

In summary the trends are:

  1. Digital Sovereignty 
  2. Automation At Distance
  3. De-globalisation
  4. Essentialism
  5. Market Recalibration

Some ideas I’ve touched on in recent posts. I’d love for you to make a comment on Youtube and even subscribe to my YT channel here. Join another 10,000 peeps on the Sammatron wagon – safety in numbers I say. Get on it!

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Keep thinking,

Steve. 

What the Fork? Strategy for 2020 – COVID-19 series

Never has business been so open-minded to change. While humans are the most innovative species on earth, we’re inconsistent. If things are cruising along nicely in life – then don’t expect much change. We’re creatures of habit and naturally risk averse. Currently it is riskier to not change, hence the embrace of change.

I’ve never had as many large corporations and government bodies contact me as they have over the past two months. What’s refreshing is the desire not just to understand possibilities, but their willingness to implement – immediately. A timely reminder of how quickly we can mobilise when needed.

While I have been doing many post-COVID economic briefings, the strategic template I’ve offered is not just for large institutions, but also for startups and individual careers. Most COVID-related shifts are falling into 2 specific patterns: Acceleration and Forks.

Acceleration: These are the trends that were already happening, but slowly. They are long-term trajectories. However with COVID, they got on the fast track – accelerated. Things that might normally take years are transformed in mere months. This list under this shift is long, but here are some examples:

  • Work From Anywhere (WFA)
  • Biometric Surveillance of Citizens
  • Tele-Labour and Telemedicine
  • Transition to Ecommerce
  • Dominance of Technology in our social and work lives
  • Nationalism – re-localisation of core supply chain

Forks: These are changes in direction that would not have occurred without COVID. Sometimes they are additional requirements that need to be added to a process and sometimes they entirely replace how we used to do things. In this list we could include the following:

  • COVID-safe supply chains
  • Social Distancing in retail / entertainment environs
  • Travel restrictions – reduced human mobility
  • Exo-labour
  • Off-campus education

A key task today is to make a list of the relevant accelerants and forks in your business and personal life.  Some will be the same for everyone and some are industry specific. Categorise the changes that have impacted you into either Accelerant and Fork buckets, you’ve got a strategic template of how to go forward and build tactics for implementation.

Though fortunately not all of us have been affected physically by the virus, it’s likely we all have been affected in other ways. Personally, I’ve had to pivot. I practice what I preach and I’m happy to share my forks and accelerations.

A big chunk of my non-passive income came from keynote speaking and consulting. This involves being in front of large audiences, in closed rooms or prolonged face-to-face contact with clients, as well as interstate and overseas travel. That all went to zero. I’d also been working on some longer lead projects – the Future House, a new TV show and a new book – these have been my accelerants. Lately I’ve focused on writing (doing around 2,000 words a day) – scripts and segments for the new TV show, articles and more media interviews, as well as some post-COVID strategy briefings. Luckily, this can be done online.

I haven’t tried to replace lost income through doing cheaper online versions, simply because the value of my advice is not determined by how it is delivered. So, rather than offer discounts, I’ve decided to design a cathedral. When the sky clears, I’ll come out and share it. This is a core principal for freelancers. We have to be very careful not to cheapen our brands and discount them, because it can be very difficult later on to reclaim the true value.

The truth is the change has been really refreshing for my mind – I’ve never felt so prolific and stimulated exploring new possibilities and new ideas.

We should all remember this: the openness to innovation will only survive as long as the instability does. Stability usually results in stasis for the large majority. So take your chances now while the world is open to it, when everyone’s plans are kiboshed and their budgets are blown. We might just have a chance to invent something new.

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Keep Thinking.

Steve. 

Choose your own Adventure – COVID-19 series

I did lots of post this week – but rather than bombard you with them every day, here they are for you to choose your own adventure:

Option 1: Our next Global Pandemics – yes, they could be worse.

Option 2: 3 Business Strategies for anyone during COVID-19 – which one is right for you?

Option 3: How saving Pennies in January, cost us Trillions in March – The real cost of hesitating.

Option 4: How the Richest Man in the World Behaves – Putting profit before people.

Option 5: Changes to the world post CoronaVirus – radio interview I did this week.

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Stay alert & stay safe,

Steve.

 

Disruption and The Shampoo Strategy

Business success is built on what I like to call a Shampoo Strategy. We find a formula, a business model that works, and then we rinse and repeat. It’s the way all wealth is created in the modern economy. We discover a process, service or product which has perpetual demand and we continue to deliver this to the same people again and again and again. The only problem is when to change the formula?

Shampoo Strategies are the type of business outcome any profit centric capitalist should be aiming for. We turn something from an idea into a system which makes money with very few changes to inputs. It’s essentially when we’ve cracked it. Ironically, the Shampoo Strategy is exactly where disruption comes from.

We develop a system which becomes its own thing. It operates on a kind of auto pilot and is highly profitable. Costs continue to go down while margins go up, and we end up serving the system, and losing track of why it worked in the first place. The reason it worked is usually because the formula, the customer and the business model all overlapped in a way that suited the market. But as markets evolve, yesterday’s formula may become less effective, sometimes seemingly overnight. But when we look hard, the signs of deceptive disruption are always there long before that ‘overnight‘ moment.

So what should we do to understand if our formula is about to stop working? Well, it’s rarely one thing on its own, but the way a few things interact. I break them into 3 parts.

The Technology: Questions to ask here include: How the problem gets solved and how can tech change that, reduce costs, or change the method of delivery?

The Business Model: Are people still prepared to pay for what we deliver? Can they serve that need more economically elsewhere? Can we increase our margin or reduce our price with a new emerging technology?

Demand: Is demand for what we do solid, shifting or waning. How can we shift with it? Is the solution just shifting? e.g. digitization of news. Or is the market in perpetual decline? e.g. coal fired power plants.

Finally, how do these three things interact to create a new formula for tomorrow’s rinse and repeat?

The one thing to remember with the Shampoo Strategy is that they never work forever, but new formulas can always be invented. And new formulas only ever get invented by those paying attention to the market, more than they pay attention to what they make or sell.