The technology shifts you need to focus on in 2018

I’ve always believed the technology shifts we ought focus on shouldn’t be the abrupt, but changes in the tide of consumer behaviour and the economy. The reasons shifts are more important than definitive events is that we have time to react to them, build around the movement and benefit from the change. Disruptive events are all too often the story of yesterday. With that in mind, here’s some thought starters on where we might focus our businesses in the coming year.

Typing to talking: After investing 20 years in being found on the screen, a list, the list will start to evaporate and be replaced with a singular verbal response. There won’t be a first page, just a recommendation. With Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and others investing heavily in voice activated devices the battle for the home, the fridge and entertainment devices will shift from typing to talking. This is a basic requirement before any serious IoT can be deployed, and will also forge a core component of the autonomous transport revolution. If any business relies on the SEO now, then it’s time to start working on Voice Engine strategy for a very fast approaching tomorrow.

Drone Logistics: While the big players have been the core promotors of drone possibilities, expect to see a pivot where a ‘Jo Nobody’ local business starts the process of real deliveries via drone. While regulations are moving fast, the risk for a small local outfit to deliver something just a few km’s away, while illegal, is often palatable to entrepreneurs. I expect V1 drone logistics to be built underneath the radar (surely you liked that pun). The first regular outside of line of sight deliveries will occur while no one is watching this year. Small efforts by micro businesses where both the deliverer and deliveree benefit. The real innovations are less about press releases of possible future innovation and more about two parties solving each others problems using the technology, mostly without permission.

Pop up bots: While bots pervade our every internet moment and make most of the technology we touch, we can expect bots to pop up where humans once stood this year. It won’t be a swarm, but we can expect to see a few humanoid style robots stand where people recently have, doing the repetitive task they did. At first it will be a curiosity, a marketing bit, some retail theatre, but it will be real. When robots can do backflips, it wont be long before they pull long macchiatos. Maybe your business can get the lead and win the early PR race – which is what it will be in 2018 at a commercial level for those not actually manufacturing the bots.

Crytpo Bubble Expands: Bitcoin had a year of growth to rival any financial bubble in history, at one point the rise was 20 fold in 12 months. I’ve been a believer in crypto currency for a long time. And I still am, but the underlying value of any product, service, asset class, or investment does not preclude it from getting overpriced (read bubble). The problem isn’t the price itself though, bitcoin could end up worth a million each for all i know, but that rapid adoption creates a rush at the door, and inevitably not everyone can get in or out – it creates a natural bottle neck of supply – the asset ends up with rapid confidence gains and losses, and sometimes it falls rapidly and doesn’t recover. Remember currencies are based on trust. My view is that bitcoin has shifted from a currency to a store of value – for now. So here’s the prediction bit. The crypto mania will continue into this year, and given those pushing up the price are generally people afraid of missing out, the rush will shift from being about bitcoin to about whichever currency ‘seems cheap’. It’s impossible to price an asset which has no yield and is based only on confidence and demand. Expect to see Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero and others experience similar gains this year to bitcoin last year in a dotcom style boom. And just like that boom, a crash will happen, though I’m not sure when. The FOMO investors will exit, and crypto currency will re-emerge some years later and create the revolution it promised. Probably with some new coins, and some of the stalwarts. Side note: it took Amazon until 2007 before got back to  it’s year 2000 dotcom boom share price and now it’s on its way to be a trillion dollar company. The core skill we need in times like this is understanding if we are investing or speculating – both of which can be valid, so long as we know which game we’re playing. In the interim, we can expect to a serious shift of focus into the importance of the underpinning technology of the blockchain.

BlockChain technology pivot: Businesses will start to understand that blockchain technology can do much more than cryptographically track currency. It’s the equivalent of a 1989 internet era for blockchain, and the time is now to experiment with the technology and build something using it. The Google search you need to make is here: “How Blockchain technology can be used in [insert your industry]” – The more you dig into it, watch videos and understand the technology, you’ll see it has the potential to reframe the internet in many ways – and we need that to challenge the current internet oligopoly, and their quasi-unauthorised privacy trading market. A blockchain knowledge upgrade is a journey worth taking. I agree with Nic Hodges that we’ll see innovation on it this year outside of currency.

Regulation not a dirty word: People will start to realise that regulation is not the enemy, but an absolute requirement for a civilised and opportunity based capitalist economy. Here I’d like to make the delineation that there is good and bad regulation:

Bad regulations: Ones which protect industries and companies.

Good regulations: Ones which protect people.

It’s easy to forget that regulation can create entire industries and new revenue streams, open closed industries and allow for increased competition. Think work place health and safety – it not only made life better and safer for working people, but forced innovation in many realms. Opportunities to protect consumers against the big 4 are starting now – via regulation and via those prepared to innovate against their failings.

Virtual reality & Augmented Reality B2B pivot:  While the leaps being made in virtual and augmented reality are astounding and create incredible possibility, the big companies investing in the technologies (Microsoft / Facebook) will realise it will be many years before we have any serious adoption of these at the consumer level. Google’s move to warehouses and factories with Google Glass will be the start of these technologies infiltrating work as we know it. The beauty of this shift is it gives humans an upper hand against independent AI. We will become the technology and work with it. Expect to see people working in all areas from retail to manufacturing to distribution wearing various forms of facial augmented technology. We’ll also see the start of augmentation centres pop up – places we go to to get work done, or be entertained using high end AR & VR rigs – even Haptic Conferencing. Don’t expect to see it any time soon in anyones kitchen or lounge room. I believe this is the realm of ambient computing, and we should never forget a new technology needs a substitute, and I can’t see us substituting our current in home behaviour to don tech rigs at home. It will first need to infiltrate our worlds of work first – just like most technologies do. (Yes, we’ll still see VR / AR in basements with gamers!)

– – –

If you want to get your year off motivated and creating an independent future – check out my latest book, The Lessons School Forgot – I promise you’ll dig it. 

Have a great 2018, and go make something rad,


Why focusing on the latest trends in Silicon Valley probably wont end up in you becoming one

There’s an interesting link between startups, technology and fashion. Any industry which is defined by rapid change and innovation has a fashion element to it. The latest hot stuff which is getting attention, the stuff the market gets excited by, the stuff that gets media attention, the stuff that gets the fanboys and fangirls writing blog posts about it. The startup and technology media is very trend related. So much so that we all know what the hot spaces to be involved in are:

Wearables, 3D printing, Web of things, Drones, Crypto currency, Crowdfunding, and those other ones I’ve left out….

Get a Kickstarter project going with one of these topics in the header and it seems like the funding job is already half done. But if we want to go deeper on this issue as entrepreneurs, then we need to pay some close attention to what happens in the fashion industry itself. Those consuming the fashion and paying attention to it or rarely those who are actually creating it. There isn’t a correlation between being up with the latest trend and ever creating one. In fact, there’s a real danger in being obsessed with what others are doing. It means we’re following, not leading. Fans by definition are always a little bit behind the game – literally. Their focus is on appreciating what has already happened. It means that there might be an inordinate amount of time spent on keeping up.

It’s easy to understand why we might feel compelled to keep up. There’s a lot of social pressure in a sharing economy – the kudos that goes with knowing about the latest thing, using it, or owning the hardware. The ‘have you seen this’ side of the technology revolution.

Will knowing who raised x amount of capital help you raise capital?

Will having the latest apps on your smartphone help you build your app?

Probably not. Probably more of a distraction from the real work we need to do. Sure, be across the market place, but obsessions with the latest trends probably means we’ll never create one ourselves.


Soundbites from the Future – 2013

Recently I’ve been lucky enough to attend a few events which have been centered around what’s next socially and commercially. So I thought I might pull all these thoughts together in a new edition of Soundbites from the Future – The 2013 edition. You’ll find it is full of contradictions and juxtapositions. A bit like our emerging and likely to be permanent business environment. Enjoy!

The Co-Commerce Revolution – Well it isn’t really a revolution, more of a devolution. But it’s here to stay and is about to replace the 200 year anomaly of the industrial era. An era defined and dominated by the few who could afford the factories, the media and the distribution systems. The top down era of one size fits all. And now it is over. It doesn’t fit anyone anymore and anyone trying to sell it will end up with their friends Kodak, Blockbuster and Yellow pages. The co-commerce era is here and defined by the 3 C’s – Collaboration, Conversations and Creativity. Now that we all have access, everything is up for grabs. Just look at the new dominant platforms; they’re all egalitarian: Anymore can build an app for Play or iTunes, anyone can use Alibaba to get world class products made at the best prices globally in any category, anyone can advertise on Google adwords (highly relevant where 17% of searches have never been searched before) and anyone can build their own brand channel on Youtube. The revolution is about access and the democratization of the factors of production.

Counterintuition – When you are living through a revolution, it’s easy to forget that everything is above for grabs. That a certain industry method for success can be replaced in an instant. As we move from the industrial era to the digital one, we are even starting to see our new digital world be redefined. In fact, we can expect constant re-definitions of what we thought was right as a new maxim in the coming years. Let’s take on line retailing as an example. Why would a successful on line retailer open a bricks and mortar store? Or why would you open a store inside the store of a competitor? While this is exactly what on line clothing retailers Asos and Threadless have done. While Topshop have opened in Nordstrom. We need to have a close look at the worlds two biggest social media networks of Twitter and Facebook – they run open API’s for each other to assist their customers and suppliers switch and share between each other. In an old world industrial sense it’s a bit like Coke and Pepsi selling 6 packs with 3 cans of each brand. To survive in a world full of contradictions we need to think counter intuitively on purpose, not by accident or after we see it. We now live in an anarconomy where entrepreneurs are making counter moves to disrupt the status quo so they can redefine commercial landscapes. Startups are lucky that they can’t afford research, so they test in market and land upon on ideas that would never fly based on what we think or what focus groups would respond with. Which is the same reason why large incumbents would never happen up such radical formats – their system wont allow it.

The Maker Revolution – The factory isn’t dead, it has just shrunk a thousand fold and moved into our spare rooms and home office. It’s the next phase of D.I.Y: Do it yourself, Design it yourself, Distribute it yourself, 3D it yourself – in fact we can nearly make anything in home or certainly procure it via global production hubs like We can make anything because all the tools of production have been democratized for ever. We can now even access things that produce things with 3D printing. What this means for brands is simple but hard to grasp. brands need to be more virtual and conceptual because anyone with a $500 computer and wifi connection can make ‘it’ or, get the people to make ‘it’. This may be why the only consumer sector which is experiencing exponential growth is the luxury sector. Luxury is about the relationship people have with the thing, rather than what is being sold itself. It means luxury brands will have to ask important questions about what they sell in the future – will it be private jets, private hotels or access to something which cannot be made by anyone like experiences.

Technology Poverty – Every revolution has its downsides – those who miss out. Technology is bringing about a new form of poverty to those who don’t have equal access to it. Given technology is becoming the major form of market access – it should now be viewed in the same realm as access to medicine and education. It should be viewed this way because it has, and will increasingly have a direct impact on living standards. In developed markets Wifi and broadband are now seen as a right, rather than an option, to the point where many consumers claim that not having it is a modern form of social abuse. The technology minimums are changing quickly. Kids under the age of 15 barely know what a desktop computer is. While developing markets are jumping computers all together and taking themselves out of technology poverty and riding on the coat tails of the smart phone. The key risk for developed markets (countries) is that they don’t take the concept of technology poverty seriously enough. Sir Martin Sorrel, the founder of WPP (the worlds largest media organization), recently said he went to Tech Punta in Montevideo instead of the CES in Las Vegas. Here he found out that every kid in Uruguay is given a free laptop by the government – (for me it’s a bit like western countries giving all kids a free public education some 200 years ago and that’s why they currently lead the developed world). The entire country of Uruguay is connected to the web. Web access is seen by the government as an ‘economic development investment’, not a political football. They are using Singapore as their model of economic development.  He said the entrepreneurial attitude there is as strong as anywhere. A bit like Silicon Valley. The government is using the shift to technology economies as their chance to reinvent. He said that Western Europe is the most behind in the world at realizing this. They (Uruguay) want to ensure they are not a victim of technology poverty. It’s a pity Australian leaders don’t share the same view. The mind is empty when the belly is full.

The Big Data Brother –  The privacy issue around data is going to get much much bigger. Our personal data is being, bought, bartered and sold with every log in. What most people don’t know is that every click is traceable. And while we feel a bit uncomfortable, we still engage because the cost of non participation is currently higher than the price of privacy. This might just change. Most of the world hasn’t realized the depth of the issue yet. It’s much more than cookies and re-targetting. But so far it seems like an ‘opt-out’ approach is unrealistic as digital infrastructure is too important to our mode of living. The big issues in privacy will be geo-tracking, private preference, biometric scanning and medical history & prediction. If there is a resolution to this issue it will need to be simplified and philosophical with a pan global, United Nations style approach. Like most politically important information, consumers will eventually get to be in control of their own aggregated data. Some now predict there will eventually be startups that produce some kind of a digital vault and we’ll get to choose whom to release data to. The final question is what happens to our data when we die? Our social and digital footprint will be our record and our personal biography, so will our children get the rights to it? Who gets to own the digital products we have purchased in good faith? Actor Bruce Willis asked the same question late last year.

Retro Coping – Technology is being married up with memories as a kind of coping mechanism. The pace of change is so quick it is creating an anxiety to keep up. It’s not surprising that services like instagram and the i-cade gaming console are so popular – they re-imagine the new world with a sense of comfort from yesteryear. Footwear brands Nike, Adidas, Converse and Tiger have all done very well bringing back designs from the 1980’s to leverage the trend. While collectors now use on-line forums and new technology to re-live their youth. My favourite example is collectors weekly. We can only expect an increase in retro stylings as things move faster and we protest with our dollar votes.

Symboitic Branding – Co-branding used to be a parasitic relationship, the elephant and the flee, but now we are seeing true symbiosis due to the beta mindsets and startup culture. Instead of powerful conglomerates rubbing each others backs we are seeing small brands building their own ecosystem. Symbiosos being a situation were the interaction of two organisms (businesses in this case) are better off post interaction than if they did not interact. A big area for this is the redefinition of resource allocation. A more efficient allocation of resources made possible by the digital connection economy. The re-allocation of money, the re-allocation of time, and the re-allocation of space are three key areas for this.

Crowd Funding – Is another great exemplar of the big end in town being disrupted. While non bank business financing is currently miniscule by comparison, the numbers from tell us something is brewing. Since it launched in 2009 it has funded 86,000 startups and raised well over $400,000,000. It’s now clear who is in control when we can create the products (world?) we want by voting with as little as $1. With changes afoot in the USA with the JumpStart legislation the legal barriers to non traditional funding and banking are being reduced further. Add micro payments services like Square to the equation and very soon we will begin to hear investment bankers start to cry foul like journalists and recording industry executives have been doing since Napster.

Space Squatting – Newer brands are understand that space and time are assets which can be leveraged via digital location and time specific connection. In today’s world people know that access is greater than ownership. People chase experience and utility more than they do accumulation. The art of activating idle assets to bring in new revenue is occurring for both the service provider and the service creator. If we consider the heroes of the collaborative consumption movement like Airbnb, Zipcar and Uber then it’s easy to see what they have in common: activating down time for assets and long tail efficiency. The future will be more about leased living as the friction in doing so is reduced by mobile computing, instant knowledge of availability, and social / digital ratification of participants. Other forms of space squatting have included strange combinations like mobile food truck of Johnny Cupcakes & Junk Food Clothing. Or in London the Menzies Pie shop (which doesn’t open in the evening) converts into a night time restaurant called the Seagrass Restuarant. Same place, run by different people, at different times, with a different offer.

Brand Jacking – the process of brands hijacking each other for fun and on purpose can make for interesting viewing in a sea of boring. Especially when the brand normally operate in an invisible category like washing powder. Here’s a great example from the worlds oldest brand marketers, Proctor & Gamble: Old Spice brand jacks a Bounce commercial. More proof that innovation is an attitude and not dependent on which era you’re from.

Brandalism – When a brand continues to do the wrong thing by their consumers, the world, or the environment, then we can expect brandalism to emerge. The firm Arctic Ready did such a thing with their fake “Let’s Go” campaign which Brandalises Shell oil. This execution was actually presented in the board room by executives who thought it was a genuine advertisement by them. Another recent act of brandalism is the 14 year old McDonalds burger which doesn’t look more than 14 minutes old.

Popup-e-nomics – As retail continues to struggle as a permanent fixture, smart and nimble operators are leveraging events, seasonality and instant geo-located retail parties as we move into the popup-e-nomics era. Pop up retail is nothing more than a reinvention of the moving spice market mentality that was the birth place of modern retail. A few thousand years into the future and traders are moving back to the mobility retail model. Itinerant brands invent scarcity in the same way that live performances do. A local example was the Greenhouse pop up restaurant in Melbourne by Joost Baker – Which included vertical gardens and large amounts of material re-purposing. When things are mobile in their nature, it enforces sustainable design principals to be built into the outfit. Curiosity Retail will is also starting to emerge as a way remove price as a factor and create interest. Restaurants increasingly growing herbs and vegetables on site and doing something unique and curious in nature. Things worth a quick look at.

City Reclaiming – Residents in many cities are starting to react to poor representation by government for decades. They are now reclaiming their cities and circumventing the planning doctrine. Residents are collaborating to start, finance and manage public works projects and proving they can bootstrap a better job themselves. Some of the amazing examples include: I Make Rotterdam project, where local residents made a bridge the government wouldn’t fund, The big + swimming pool in New York’s Hudson river, and the New York high line reinvention. And one startup – Brickstarter – has decided to take it to the another level and design a system that allows communities to build their own sustainable and improvement projects.

A Move back to vertical living – Years ago we used to live above the store, or behind the craftsman’s workshop. Then the car and factory pushed us all apart. The highways linked us to our place of work with our home, and our media (Television) linked us to our perceived world. We lived in isolated silos of production, entertainment and consumption. Suburban living improved living standards, but standardised everything and everyone. It was anti-social in nature. Recent growth in digital social networks has served as a reminder on what differentiates our species. Our desire to collaborate and connect. Our cities became wide and lonely spaces with big boxes to buy stuff in. Cities are now becoming vertical again. Work and social life are being re-integrated. It’s ironic that the cost of transport (both time & financial) has brought us closer together again. And just like the past, many companies and startups are starting to do all the parts of their business themselves. Etsy as a classic example of a vertical business, where their entire community are all consumers, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers.

Faction Marketing – After 50 years of invented pop culture and mass media force feeding, authenticity from brands was a boon for both parties. We rallied in the freshness of truth and justice in the marketing way. But the excitement of a simple authentic brand is waning somewhat. It was what marketing should have been in the first place. Being real was only radical, because the world before it was so opaque and fake. The net effect of all this, is that being authentic is now becoming a cost of entry, rather than a point of difference. The 3 T’s of Truth, Transparency and Trust are now expected. Brands get it now that real matters, but it wont be enough to hang their hat on going forward – our product must be authentic and fantastical.

Authenticity as a foundation – But some took authenticity a little too far. There is a difference between being deceptive (hiding or denying the facts) with simply showing too much. Reality is not always beautiful, and so long as what is underneath is valid then it is OK to put a bit of fantasy on top. Marketing both Fact and Fiction or – Faction Marketing. In this realm we can bundle authenticity into the convenience bucket and take it as a given. We can’t charge a premium for it today, it’s a simple part of brand economics. What people want goes deeper and has layers of interest added to the realness. People want to suspend disbelief, be part of trans media tales, co-create stories, be assisted in their personal mythology and self actualize. The silver screen has met the tiny screen. Our mobile is our new cinema and the content needs to match the context today. We are all creating our own story live. So do brands and so do the video forums we live on – like Youtube – whose annual review is really our annual review. It’s what we did, looked at and lived through.

Fantasy is back – We are suffering from austerity fatigue. In a post GFC environment it’s now ok to get into the fantasy space – so long as we obey two simple things. (1) Stay true at the base level and (2) increase the happiness of our community in the process. If a brand is a personality then we want it to be the kind of person we’d want to hang out with on a weekend. Just like our coffee, it’s ok to have a cappuccino because we know that there is espresso underneath the froth. We are starting to endear ourselves to the idea of Cappucino Brands. Some brands are starting to say what if we could transport ourselves and our community into a vastly different, if temporary world. Let’s take the faux startup Voosa as an example, it shows how bored we are of pure authenticity. Other examples include the Selfridges Yayoi Kusama Louis Vuitton display which was something that you just had to visit – it was live fantasy. We are even seeing fantasy dominate the box office with Life of Pi and even the living room screen with Game of Thrones. While one of my favorite portrayals of the fantasy worlds was the Prometheus movie trailer which featured a TED Talk from the year 2023 with the CEO from Weyland Industries… “We are the God’s now”.

What Department Stores Forgot – Fantasy and journey was the original promise of the department store when they first arrived in the early 1900’s. The department store was designed to bring the distant world to us. At that time and even until much more recently we could not afford to visit the world physically, and we certainly could not have it brought to us through virtual means. Ironically, this is ‘still’ the job of the department store now, it’s just they they forgot about fantasy and vicarious living – they got all caught up in price and foot traffic. Which happens to be the two platforms they can’t possibly compete with the web on now. Their stores need to be enclaves of the nether world, the place we’d really rather be on a Saturday, whether it’s an Arabian silk market or the feeling of New York’s 5th avenue. They need to start re-creating a new world in store and make what they sell fit into that temporary fantasy.

Surrealism Rising – Real and digital realms are converging in physical spaces. The ‘web invisible’ will be the new normal as our entire environment transforms separate spaces to an integrated word of seamless technology. We no longer go to technology devices but live on top of them and within them. Commodities are being replaced by art – and art is the only thing we can charge a premium for these days. Being capital and technology intensive it is not enough of a foundation to charge a premium. More brands are now playing in the ‘what if’ space. They have to as the new digital dominators are forcing all industry stalwarts to wonder how they will be disrupted. The startup ethic is catching on to even the oldest and slowest corporate monoliths. So we must now ask where will the story change… and ask the ‘What if’ questions seriously… maybe retailers should be asking these types of questions

  • What if our store banned all brands?
  • What if a retailer had no stock in the store?
  • What if phones were banned in store?
  • What if you had to share a photo to be allowed to buy something?
  • What if you had to book an appointment to visit the store?

Examples of Surrealism rising are many and varied. The Man on the Boon store is a curated store where the founder only stocks stuff he would buy or own. It’s “his” store. That’s the strategic alignment, not what is sold inside it, but rather stuff that he happens to like. In this case engagement doesn’t have to be our reality, it can even be the distorted one of the inventor. We might also consider the famous Japanese rock star Hatsuen Miku. Her concerts sell out, she has adoring fans, but she’s not real, she is a hologram…. ‘Anime’. Hard to believe until you see this. While Clouds over Cuba represents something more apocalyptic, it is still part of the ‘what if’ narrative. This movie revisits October 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis and what might have been. While Nuclear was avoided, this story is what the world would be like if the result was war. All these examples remind us as that we are the story telling species.

Instant Nostalgia – While the speed of changes continues to accelerate, nostalgia is being used as a coping mechanism. With instagram being the obvious example, others are bringing back bespoke craftsmanship and even ‘instant history’. Let’s take Facebook timeline – it’s smarter than most of us give it credit for. Brands are almost obliged to tell their story and give an historical account of how they got there. It’s something old consumer brands have more of than the new digital darlings – a long drawn out story. This forum gives them a license to tell it. A favourite example is old sporting club’s and Universities making their FB timeline a page feature and promotional item. Brands with long histories can tell stories with old creative executions in context and provide an evolutionary angle, rather than just ‘here’s an advert from 1983‘. The back story tells so much about the today story. On top of this we are hungry for certainty, and good memories, even if we weren’t there. We are more appreciative of the imperfections in life as we move into a more human era of marketing. Maybe it is the soft crackle of an LP record that has enabled vinyl LP sales to increase year on year for the past 19.

Inventing Language – A connected world is creating rapid fire change to the language we use as humans. It’s now evolving at the fastest pace in the history of the spoken word. While local dialects are at risk of extinction, new forms of mashed up global language are emerging. There is nothing stopping smart people and organisations from inventing their own parlance to fit within the over riding trend. Lady Gaga used this to terrific effect when she launched her fragrance ‘Fame’. The commercial people wanted to watch even though it runs for longer than 5 minutes. They invested their time in it. Lady Gaga tweeted the bottle pre release to tell her fans what it smells like;

…tears of belladonna, heart of crushed of tiger orchid, with a veil of black incense, pulverized apricot, and the combination of essence of saffron and honey drops…

Mars is the new Moon – it seems every second billionaire is launching a space exploration startup these days. This has rekindled the exploration nerve in the everyday earthling. While we now believe civilian space travel just might be possible we want a taste of it today – and I’m not just taking about moon boots or moon patrol. The worlds biggest sporting brand is even taking it on with their NIKE craft launch – pun clearly intended. By teaming up with designer Tom Sachs Nike have enabled a galactic design ethic with the Mars Yard Shoe and matching ensemble. The only rational desire is to want it.

Existence is optional – In a factional world something doesn’t even have to exist to be absolutely brilliant. The web 2.0 era has taught us to create on marginal platforms and ownership. We’ve stopped asking for permission. Consumers are now starting to create their own factional brand stories about themselves – from their social feeds, to their Youtube channels – their reality is what they say it is. People first made mashups, now they are becoming mashups. They are evolving into combinations of who they are and who they aspire to be – blurring digital and physical worlds make this both possible and simple. So the human pattern is now one of a story which is shared, told and changes as the journey is taken – live on line.

Blurring of worlds – My favorite blurring comes from the world of on line gaming. [which By the year 2017 on-line gaming (non gambling) is expected to be a $70 billion dollar industry] A particular game called Journey by That Gaming Company, has a hidden part of a game which only reveals itself once you’ve already played it…. As you play the game you learn about the characters and that you can get them to fly… But the only way to fly in this game is by holding hands with another character…. what you don’t know until after you’ve learned to fly in this game, is that the other character is another player doing the same thing ‘live’ – which means the only way you learn to fly in this game is simultaneously with another player. Both players are unaware the other player is not part of the game, but another person until after. The only way to get to the next level via flying is together. This game also requires players to sing at various times during it.

The New Sublimity – Consumers people are fed up with materialism. They are let down by consumption, and totally discombobulated with their digital lives. Conversation has overtaken contemplation. We can see this in the sublime spaces promoted on Airbnb. Or the Enrico Resguardo Silvestre Hotel in Baja California. At this hotel they espouse the somewhat revolutionary idea of sitting by the view instead of sitting by the screen. And brands too need to understand the power of being quiet or silent, instead of big and brash. Selfriges have done this nicely with their No Noise spaces. or it may be that you end up embracing Hobosim just like the entrepreneurs who founded the NYC Bivouac hotel – a space where people camp on the top of city buildings.

Digital Dieting – We are now moving into a post business meets leisure environment. Five years ago holiday location hotels promoted free wifi. Now it is Zenn disconnectedness. We now want to be uncontactable on holiday. Closed loop isloation is now becoming a form of luxury. The digital diet and going dark (2) will become a cultural imperative to save us from our devices. It wont be a counter trend, but more a realisation that there is a switch, and we can turn it off.

The Slow Web – Now that we are cleaning our minds with digital diets, sublimity tourism and quiet spaces, we fill the void with the emergence of the slow web. People will replace the junk food web – instantly gratifying bursts of data –  by investing larger amounts of time into human based insight – information with some serious nutritional value. Smart audiences are realising there’s very little value in knowing the latest meme and are responding with services like Long Reads. Which may just be where you’re reading this post.


Business trends in 2011

A great piece from the Cannes Advertising Festival which is a great summary of key trends in business, more than advertising or marketing. Enjoy!

[slideshare id=8393334&doc=12trendsfromcannes2011-110622171131-phpapp01]


Pop culture knowledge

Pop culture knowledge used to be about knowing who was atop of the leader board:

  1. the top of the billboard chart
  2. the number 1 movie
  3. the best selling pair of jeans
  4. the best selling athletic shoe
  5. the best picture at the Academy awards
  6. the most popular celebrity endorser
  7. … popularity contest X

This knowledge was a quick reference asset. It was worth keeping tabs on.

Pop culture has changed.

Now it’s about knowing what’s coming next. Knowing who’s already here is of little value. Anyone can find that out in a moments notice, it’s public and omnipresent on the web. Knowing who or what will be hot 6 months from now is where the currency is.  And that takes constant assessment and curation of the content. That is an art in itself.


60 seconds on the web

The world moves fast. When we we’re unconnected the speed of change went unnoticed. Now that we all have digital footprints, we can track all that happens. This amazing and statistically rich infographic is solid reminder of the world we live in. It’s also very cool that most of these business are startups that aren’t even teenagers yet. I’ve pulled out the numbers and got the pic below.

60 seconds on the web:

  • 12,000+ new ads posted on Craigslist
  • 370,000+ minutes of voice calls on Skype
  • 98,000+ tweets
  • 320+ new twitter accounts
  • 100+ new Linkedin accounts
  • 6,600+ photos uploaded to Flickr
  • 50+ wordpress CMS downloads & 125+ plugins
  • 695,000 facebook status updates, 80,000 wall posts and 510,040 comments
  • 1,700 firefox downloads
  • 694,445 google searches
  • 168 million emails sent (of which 92% is spam)
  • 60+ new blogs & 1500+ new blog posts
  • 70+ new domains are registered
  • 600+ new Youtube videos are uploaded. 25+ hours in duration
  • 150+ questions are asked in Question forums
  • 13,000+ iPhone apps are downloaded
  • 20,000 new posts on Tumblr.
  • I new definition added to Urban Dictionary 
  • 1,600+ reads on Scribd.

And here is what it looks like:


Soundbites from the future

A few soundbites from the future:

Leadership: It’s no longer about being king of the mountain, it’s about being center of the circle. Prof Joseph Nye author of Soft Power.

Woman will lead the 21st century, or at least a feminine social and business ethic. The 20th century was very male centric. This has flipped with the rise of social facilitation.

The 3rd world is benefiting from the mistakes of the 1st world over the past 100 years. BRIC nations especially are innovating and creating new technology platforms, while the west holds onto fossil fuel era. BRICS are investing in recycling, eco, solar and fusion and the west is resisting.

Conviviality Culture: All we really long for is socialisation. Consumption was the substitute for social recognition in a n industrialised, systematic world. Geolocating is being used as tool for us as a collective to “assemble” so we can collaborate and take back control of our destiny and conversations. Mobiles tell us where we are, and why we are there. Not being listed or ‘located’ via mobile is like not being listed in the white pages.

But, research shows that only 5% of people are “happy” when socialising on line… which tells us that it used as a substitute or preamble to actually connect physically and meet. Socialising on-line is a facilitator to actual ‘real’ connection that we want to make as humans. The proof of this is in the growth of us geo-locating each other. We need to be together.

Although we are connecting on-line, we want to tune out, log off and turn off. We aspire to not having to check our emails or update our ‘status’. It’s onerous and heavy. People in their 20’s are telling us this – not just Boomers.

The magic of the ‘live’ event is being re-born. Live is better than free on line. The free on line is the digital sampling of the event with the real connection…. It’s about being there. We’ve seen this with live footage and concerts on youtube and the growth of live streaming.

Un-Social Networking: Martin Lindstrom of Brand Sense says we are suffering a little from digital emptiness.

Meaning & Value > Volume

The above equation is something that marketers, brands and businesses need to take note of. We are no longer living in a volumetric era. Production and efficiency is being replaced very quickly by value and meaning.

We now have 2 windows to do business with:

The Retailer window and the Digital window. And people are starting to buy back time. The digital window helps us do that. Time is the asset – not ‘stuff’.

People are re-thinking why they buy. Unlike previous generations young Australians are participating in community activity, many of which do not involve any economic incentives.

Beta Attitudes (the every-preneur)

People are doing small scale, networked and highly responsive activities. They are prepared to get involved and just see what happens. The engagement and involvement is a larger part of the project than the actual outcome.

Live gatherings are occurring as an antidote to digital culture…. Or is it a manifestation of digital culture?

We are seeing micro festivals. The stadium era is over. We are more interested in a niche fringe community than a mass event. Mass media, top 40, stadium ethic and the horrible idea of the Grand Prix is out dated. The micro cohort is where it is at. Customised local and organised by ‘us’. Grand Prix is over bearing and crass – it has no fit with our emerging culture. We’ve already seen this sentiment in Melbourne.

Micro, Niche, Fringe, Bespoke, Local and Artisan are all words that we are appearing before the word ‘festival’.

Google this: Bodega party in a box

SMS Slingshot: converging the digital world with a physical interaction A great way to brand events around a city which is cool, a digital crossover and temporary.

Micro Salons are starting to appear first on-line, and then in person. The art of conversation is not being lost…. It is being reborn now that media is interactive and not passive. Sure language has iterated, been redefined, shortened, coded… but the conversations are real and the more meaning and ideas are being exchanged. We are more ‘conversational’ than ever!

A punk ethic is entering business. Businesses are not asking what’s allowed – they’re just doing it. Implementing first and answering questions later…. This is a big advantage for being small. Take the example of Zingara Cucina

The beta attitude is to forget focus groups and give it a try….. and be honest about it…. Be honest about the experimental nature of what we are doing. It’s not about saying ‘this is goal of the project’ but saying that ‘doing the project is the goal’ and maybe something great will come from it…. And we’ll iterate it as we go…. We’ll invest in doing and iterating…. The digital soft economy and low barriers to entry make it possible.

There are 5 senses, and we still can’t experience 3 of them on the internet – so we must complete the connection / transaction off line…. We have to if we want to get real… and we do want to get real because we are human. But have no doubt the other 3 senses will arrive on the web.

The internet is trying to mimic the real world. GEO-locating is the juncture that makes technology connections “real”.

APP Appeal

Retailers don’t know who their customers are, or where they are or what they bought…. E-commerce retailers know all this and they have a massive advantage because of it – their advantage isn’t just in cost infrastructure it’s in rich data and information.

Australia has the highest usage and penetration of social media at an average of 7 hours a month. This is ahead of the USA, the UK and Japan. Australian retailers say their customers are not ready, but the truth is that they are not ready, or even scared.

Smart phone penetration is now 45% of handsets in Australia. The internet is in every second pocket.

Retail Future

–       We need a sense that we are experiencing something.

–       The tactile store is the future.

–       Transaction must be replaced with entertainment.

–       Event based stores.

–       Artisan values.

–       Streaming production into the store on the screen.

–       Stores must become Maisons – like some luxury brands have done.

Here’s an example – A high end fashion brand with a craftsmans store in London that live streams the craftsman in action onto a big screen in the high street store in Hong Kong.

It’s about the smell and the emotion of the store.

Can you smell the leather from the haute couture hand bags?

Does the store have an emotional footprint or large ‘sale’ signs?

The tactile store has returned and needs to be part of any seriously long term retail strategy.

Crumpler have the in store production bay behind glass where their craftsman can be viewed in action and custom made bags can be ordered, and watched being made. And Haul plan to do something even better with their upcoming ‘Town Haul’ combining food beverage and fashion.

Burberry have fashion events streamed live onto iPads they have instore so that people can purchase the ‘new’ catwalk styles before they are available.

An Acronym for the retail future is: LIVE

Live, Intimate, Visceral, Exclusive (or Event)

Pop up shops – people thought they were a fad. A cute idea in a world of heavy innovation and entrepreneurial-ism. But it turns out they are not going away. Pop up shops make sense in a world of rapid change, and BETA culture.

Component Retail – brands will start shipping product components and raw materials to stores for to be assembled on site… as part of the retail experience. The customers will become the theatre at store level and the creators by virtue of this concoction. What we’ve seen in digital…’A mashup co-creation, mass customised society’… we will inevitably see in retail…. The retailers that survive anyway. We’ll see this a lot more on shop windows:

“Build it yourself in store”

Logistics will become a hot business as we move into component and on-line retail. It’s the business we’ll all need to facilitate the commercial world we are living in. Buy shares in Fedex…. Shipping will be the biggest beneficiary of changes in the business landscape.

3D Printing & Rapid Prototyping: The ability to fabricate everything from chairs, to furniture, to surfboards, to garden tools. It’s hard to believe but new printers are being developed that can take images off the screen and replicate them into an actual size unit. They currently use a layering technique and can ‘prototype’ objects using a range of materials (plastics, carbon composites et al).

To give us just a little bit of belief the ‘fantastical statement’ above this about: Only a decade or so ago a printer was a guy name Tony in who had a little factory Ringwood. Now it’s a thing that sits on your desk that creates stuff pretty much as good as anything we can buy which is printed. Manufacturing will go the same way – into the micro solution segment.

The manufacturing industry will be evolve and provide the resources so we can create our own version of the ‘thing’.

Brand stories are best when we can choose our own adventure… Exclusive balanced with accessible.


We are entering a world of trial and error. Where it is actually OK to fail. Betapreneurs would rather fail in action than fail by not trying. Betapreneurs transfer virtual world skills into the real world and business.

New low costs of business and access to production and information are facilitating a ‘try it and see’ culture.

A result is the new Anarconomy:

Anarconomy: An alternative economy where there are no geographic boundaries and often no tax claims. We circumvent the system. We make our own rules.

Alternative currencies are starting to appear. Facilitated by digital arbitrage… where we know the cross rates of goods and services after currency conversion and shipping. So the alternative of a global currency will emerge. Probably as a function of the gold standard (global price of gold as the trading valuation mechanism) with some form of digital instant and unseen conversion from our home currency into some quantum derived from gold. Maybe Paypal will do it for us? Or will it be Facebook credits?

Where Youth once rebelled against commerce, today’s youth embrace it. They like brands so much, that they want to build their own. They are unapologetically ‘into’ business. It’s a conspiracy between brand love and low barriers that has given birth to a new entrepreneurial spirit. Web enabled – of course. But it’s commerce on their terms.

Now days starting a new business is as simple as a mouse click and a few phone calls – Instapreneurs.

Betapreneurs are analysing insights from their jobs and converting these gaps into new businesses.  These founders are imbuing their new businesses with the values of our time. They have a willingness to ‘open source’.

It’s also worth noting that 75% of the fortune 500 companies were started during a recession. (the Kauffman Foundation) So it’s fair to imagine the GFC is going to be the foundation of tomorrows business leaders. 

Betapreneurs are steering old industries into new directions because they have no legacy infrastructure.

Artists are by passing the ‘store buyer barrier’ and going direct. The gatekeeper is evaporating, this is a good thing.

Why didn’t (don’t) retailers have personal shopping assistants? It took Betapreneurs to invent the category. Yet it could be a big point of difference for department stores and easy to generate a solid return on the employees wages. Dear Myer, pay attention.

The Sticky Institute represents zine culture in a way that culture jams the old industry due to a lack of legacy infrastructure.

We should ask ourselves this question:

Do we have Fans or Customers?

The reason brands don’t have the former, should form the initial thinking for their new strategy.

John Morefield is The 5c Architect. It’s a crazy story of just doing and then discovering where it goes. And the kicker is that he isn’t actually an Architect.

New pricing models are being invented by Betapreneurs. Like the following examples:

Lentil as anything – a vegetarian restaurant where the user decides what to pay after their meal.

Restaurants where people bid for the best tables and seats.

Prufrock coffee who created the worlds first ‘disloyalty card’. The card to encourages his clients to sample the wares of quality coffee shops around London. If a disloyalty member tries all 8, he will make you a free drink at his Prufrock Coffee. It might just help them keep Starbucks out.  It’s the community that matters more than the trader. This is the new collaborative world we are in transition towards. A community who vest their interests in each other.

The 80’s and 90’s were the great periods of so called ‘think tanks’. They are now changing into ‘Do Tanks’.  Weekend workshops were products and services are conceived, prototyped and shipped by Monday morning.  Often known as Startup Camps.

Ogilvy UK has started their new idea shop. With a social bent. From their web page it reads: Idea Shop is Ogilvy Group UK’s pop-up ad agency. We give free ideas to small and medium businesses, community projects, arts groups, charities and individuals. We’re nice like that.

Ideas are becoming big business and now they’re often outsourced to fresh minds. Possibly overnight – check out ideas while you sleep.

Brands can’t be a-political, they need to stand for something. Make a call and have a view. Eg Twitter wants to ‘To become “the pulse of the planet.”’ They’re happy to facilitate revolution in Moldova, Iran, Egypt and Libya.

We are starting to understand the bridge between the screen and the real. The two must service each other, not compete or be viewed as separate worlds.


People born after 1995 have never know life without the internet. They’re turning 16 and are soon about to drive cars, enter University, Vote in elections, drink alcohol and enter the worksforce.

We’ve been brought up in a world that was:

–       Pre internet

–       Pre mobile phone

–       Pre Google

–       Pre Social media

–       Pre Wikipedia

They haven’t. Such services and the benefits they provide are expected, benchmark, the way life “is”.

Generation D don’t care if the product is physical or digital. They will pay for stuff that is digital, if its worth the price. Contrary to what we believe the don’t expect all digital things to be free….

If our brands can’t get the latest stuff to them now, then they know who else can. We can’t define how they should shop, or they will teach us the hard way, especially in retail. For example, it’s no longer acceptable for fashion from Europe or anywhere to be a season late. Just not good enough in a connected world.

Gen D’s parents are also excited by new technology. They’re not Luddites and facilitate their kids obsession with the internet and technology.

Generation D don’t ‘network’. Rather, they play and collaborate. Their view isn’t hierarchical, it’s cooperative.

There are 4 million teenagers in Australia. Collectively they have $200 million a month to spend.

–       These teenagers spend 50 hours a week immersed in digital media.

–       65% use the internet to game once per week (boys & girls)

–       They want to be the controller (in life & games Wii / Kinect)

There are 400 million social gamers on Facebook. They want to game and be entertained.  It’s a multi-minded proposition. They can cope with it. They grew up multitasking, multi-channelling and absorbing multiple and disparate messages from every angle.

Ikea’s ‘Easy to Assemble’ sitcom is a great example of brands crossing entertainment boundaries. It’s proof that Youtube channels need to entertain and not just provide information.  It’s really funny, not surprising given it was written by actual, bone-fide comedians. Foxtel & all forms of pay TV should be scared, very scared.

My Damn Channel is great example of the ‘brand ownership shift’ – the middle man is being cut out in almost every industry.

Forget the net – launch with mobile. New parlance to keep in the top of your mind is “Share of pocket”. Our phone is an extension of our brains, our ego and our person.

Often the destination is determined for us. Who is already there, and where can we go on this budget – just like Adioso are doing.

A few words about print… well it wont disappear – just change. Particular niches will continue to pop up and be valuable because the content took time to digest and curate – like And now it’s in print. Because print culture is much different to book culture, they’ll head in different paths. It’s already started: e-books, niche prints.

People might not pay for information, but they will pay for insight. Insight is deeper and more considered. There’s not many substitutes out there for real deep insight. The problem is most people want customer to pay for their information, the problem is that much of this ‘information’ is available in millions of other places free.

People got confused about how to make money out of the internet. They thought we should be able to demand payment. They forgot about demand and supply. Supply doesn’t automatically equal demand – especially financial demand. First value must be created, then it is extracted. It’s the opposite to the previous industrial world of buying and selling. Now it’s proving, then earning.

The future is about the marriage of content and commerce – and content comes first. A nice example is net-a-porter

We’ve created a ‘check in’ culture. Already 1.5 million retailers are using foursquare for profit.

Social media will create a virtual advertising stock market of the future. A live stock exchange of media buying. By knowing where people are, knowing who they are, who they are with, what they buy and do and what they are interacting with – people will sell their attention. It will be flipped where the people opt in to certain information they are interested in. The interactions we have with specific people will be traded on-line in real time.

Some ‘C’s worth thinking about:

–       Create Content

–       Connect through issues and passion

–       Curate the world for the target audience

–       Communities must be facilitated socially

–       Competition – does your brand play games?

–       Context – think time, tone and place.

The final ingredient of the future is passion. It’s the one thing that can’t be outsourced, offshored or automated.