Changing Shape & Big Tech

In 2019 I wrote a manifesto on what we need to do to fix ‘Big Tech’ because I was concerned with how powerful the top six tech firms were becoming. At the time Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet and Tesla had a collective Market Capitalisation of US $3.9 trillion dollars. It is now US $8.9 trillion (28/5/21).

Since then we’ve had a global pandemic stretching 18 months. Peoples lives, health and economic circumstances have been torn apart. Businesses the world over have pulled down the shingle, people have lost their jobs and yet these same six companies forge ahead. While the world went backwards, their size more than doubled. We need to talk.

It’s hard to conceptualise how big a number is – especially a trillion. So let me provide a couple of comparisons to show how big $8.9 trillion dollars is:

  • Bigger than all but two countries GDP (USA & China)
  • 40.5% of the USA’s GDP
  • 6.5 times the size of the GPD of Australia (where I live)

Visually – 1 million dollar stacked in $100 bills, would be 3 feet high. While a trillion dollars would stack 1015km high or 2.5 times higher than the international space station.

In Time – If a person spent 1 million dollars per day, since the birth of christ, they’d still be under the trillion mark, coming in at a cool $737 billion dollars spent.

At some point we need the wisdom to know when something has fundamentally changed. Often things change long before we realise it. The lag between reality and social sentiment can be dangerously long. But once we do realise something has undergone a metamorphosis – it’s vital we treat it differently. In my view, some of the the large scale technology firms (on this list I’d place Alphabet, Facebook and Apple, maybe Amazon in USA) – are now so important to our daily lives they’ve become utilities – critical Infrastructure. Elon is even building a private global satellite network. They’ve changed. They are no longer the quirky little tech darlings we once loved.

We simply cannot participate in the modern economy without their services. While I think we can all agree the digital revolution has been a net good for society, and we all love the products, try to live a week without your smart phone, search or tools of social connection – it would be extremely difficult. In the past when firms have become indispensable we’ve tightly regulated, nationalised, or broken them up into smaller parts. We need that to happen again to avoid our world morphing into a techno-feudal state where corporations literally, usurp nations.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve.

What the Fork? Strategy for 2020 – COVID-19 series

Never has business been so open-minded to change. While humans are the most innovative species on earth, we’re inconsistent. If things are cruising along nicely in life – then don’t expect much change. We’re creatures of habit and naturally risk averse. Currently it is riskier to not change, hence the embrace of change.

I’ve never had as many large corporations and government bodies contact me as they have over the past two months. What’s refreshing is the desire not just to understand possibilities, but their willingness to implement – immediately. A timely reminder of how quickly we can mobilise when needed.

While I have been doing many post-COVID economic briefings, the strategic template I’ve offered is not just for large institutions, but also for startups and individual careers. Most COVID-related shifts are falling into 2 specific patterns: Acceleration and Forks.

Acceleration: These are the trends that were already happening, but slowly. They are long-term trajectories. However with COVID, they got on the fast track – accelerated. Things that might normally take years are transformed in mere months. This list under this shift is long, but here are some examples:

  • Work From Anywhere (WFA)
  • Biometric Surveillance of Citizens
  • Tele-Labour and Telemedicine
  • Transition to Ecommerce
  • Dominance of Technology in our social and work lives
  • Nationalism – re-localisation of core supply chain

Forks: These are changes in direction that would not have occurred without COVID. Sometimes they are additional requirements that need to be added to a process and sometimes they entirely replace how we used to do things. In this list we could include the following:

  • COVID-safe supply chains
  • Social Distancing in retail / entertainment environs
  • Travel restrictions – reduced human mobility
  • Exo-labour
  • Off-campus education

A key task today is to make a list of the relevant accelerants and forks in your business and personal life.  Some will be the same for everyone and some are industry specific. Categorise the changes that have impacted you into either Accelerant and Fork buckets, you’ve got a strategic template of how to go forward and build tactics for implementation.

Though fortunately not all of us have been affected physically by the virus, it’s likely we all have been affected in other ways. Personally, I’ve had to pivot. I practice what I preach and I’m happy to share my forks and accelerations.

A big chunk of my non-passive income came from keynote speaking and consulting. This involves being in front of large audiences, in closed rooms or prolonged face-to-face contact with clients, as well as interstate and overseas travel. That all went to zero. I’d also been working on some longer lead projects – the Future House, a new TV show and a new book – these have been my accelerants. Lately I’ve focused on writing (doing around 2,000 words a day) – scripts and segments for the new TV show, articles and more media interviews, as well as some post-COVID strategy briefings. Luckily, this can be done online.

I haven’t tried to replace lost income through doing cheaper online versions, simply because the value of my advice is not determined by how it is delivered. So, rather than offer discounts, I’ve decided to design a cathedral. When the sky clears, I’ll come out and share it. This is a core principal for freelancers. We have to be very careful not to cheapen our brands and discount them, because it can be very difficult later on to reclaim the true value.

The truth is the change has been really refreshing for my mind – I’ve never felt so prolific and stimulated exploring new possibilities and new ideas.

We should all remember this: the openness to innovation will only survive as long as the instability does. Stability usually results in stasis for the large majority. So take your chances now while the world is open to it, when everyone’s plans are kiboshed and their budgets are blown. We might just have a chance to invent something new.

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Keep Thinking.

Steve. 

Post Covid Possibilities – COVID-19 series

At time like these no one has all the answers as to what’s next. What is useful however, is asking a lot of questions. The art of scenario planning and being ready for a number of plausible trajectories and future realities. So I’ve bunched them into the of categories Data, The Economy, Work and Society.

So here it is – Post Covid Possibilities from the Sammatron. Consider, discuss and debate.

The Data & Surveillance:

Digital Sovereignty – Governments around the world (excluding China & USA) will realise that they don’t have digital sovereignty They’ve essentially been colonised by ‘Big tech’ – in that they don’t own or control the most powerful tools in the modern economy – Digital Infrastructure. Hardware / data / social / search – they’ve had to rely Big Tech (Alphabet / Apple / Facebook / Amazon / Microsoft) to gain access to data to control the virus. It will (should) facilitate nationalisation of digital infrastructure and or create a desire to build out and create their own versions.

Permanent Surveillance – A new era of digital surveillance will enter the economy and become very sticky. All our personal connections & locations and data will now be a permanent fixture in Gov. databases. Providing existential risk for overreach. Algorithms matched with other existing data sets will provide near perfect summaries of most citizens.

Biometric Scanning – Will be a new norm like scanning for weapons except this time they won’t be checking for weapons outside of our bodies, but the weapons inside our bodies – potential viruses and infections. Biometric testing will be present on public transport, stadiums, schools, universities and workplaces. We’ll walk through temperature sensors, breathe into analysers, look into iris scanners and be monitored by any other device you can imagine.

Big Tech Anti-Trust – Governments around the world will realise that they had to go cap in hand to big tech to use their resources to implement tracking and report on the covid situation. They are the only sector to have gained financial ground and market capitalisation during the crisis. This will further ensconce policy calling for their break up and or nationalisation.

The Economy:

Securing the Supply chain – There will be a push to have a stronger domestic supply chain and local production in most countries. Countries have realised how exposed they are if they don’t produce essential goods – such as food, medicine, health care materials, transport, energy etc. Local Manufacturing will make a comeback and be facilitated by new levels of A.I and automation.

De-globalisation – Married with borders being restricted and closed in many cases for an elongated period of time, we can expect a decade of de-globalisation. This shift already aligns with current US and UK political trajectories (Notably Brexit) and will accelerate the trend. Expect manufacturing and production to strengthen in home markets as a respond to supply chain risk and geopolitical and racial undertones.

Post-Efficiency Economics – Our obsession with efficiency of everything, and leaving no margin for error or ‘fat’ will be exposed as flawed. In the new economy we can expect a balance of safety to be built into systems which are inefficient on purpose so we can cope with Black Swan events such as COVID-19.

End of the Consistent Taxation Decline: The Ragan inspired era of reduced tax and trickle-down economics will be exposed as a lie that favours the rich and drives inequality. Due to necessity taxes will be raised globally regardless of what Liberal and Republican governments currently claim. We’ll realise that tax actually provides a base for economic stability and severely needed structural investment.

Nationalisation of Infrastructure – A new form of civic federalism will emerge. We’ll start to revalue to importance of infrastructure not run with a profit incentive, but the service incentive of the populace. Starting with Healthcare & Education, people will realise natural monopolies like Energy, Roads, Public Transport, Telecoms, may be better held in public hands. We’ll start to value access and control of critical infrastructure as the fabric of a civil society. A renewed respect for our trusted Institutions will also emerge.

A New Frugality – In both business and consumer spending. Financial fear associated with more frequent shocks will reduce the incentives to take on debt and aim for capital growth. This will impact corporate investment, consumer spending and house prices. The end of mass consumer culture could eventuate. A post-depression era style conservatism could emerge. The economy will be driven more by yield, than growth.

Bailout Pushback – Citizens will rally against the Gov. bailing out publicly traded stocks, and call it out for what it is Cronyism – or shall we call it – Corporate Socialism. This time the crisis has really hit street level and any bailout of a failed firm that isn’t an essential service will be heavily derided. This crisis jump start traditional two way capitalism, The take your wins, and swallow your losses – the antithesis of the GFC – where private profits and end up public losses via bail outs.

The Philanthropic Charade Exposed – billionaires who use philanthropy as a PR strategy will be exposed as the fraud they are. The tiny percentages of the wealth they offer up, pale in comparison to what they ought be paying in taxes, and the fact that philanthropy falsely allows rich people to decide where we need the money, (Choosing to give where it suits their business & political interests) instead of letting Gov. allocated their resources. All the while generating political favour for them.

Work:

Shrinking Offices – Companies will realise they don’t need as much office space. They’ll loosen the reigns on where office staff work, and take the financial advantage of having smaller offices people can come to for interactions and meetings X times per week. They’ll have collaboration spaces, not cubicles. This will negatively impact city real estate prices. The work from home revolution will accelerate.

Front Line Workers – Increased respect for healthcare workers has emerged, but sadly those in low skilled front-line work (grocery clerks, warehouse workers, drivers et al) continue to be put at risk with little safety considerations and zero financial recourse. We can expect logistical front end workers – the unsung heroes of COVD-19 – to push back hard and maybe even ask for danger money. Could unions re-emerge to protect gig workers?

Teachers, Nurses, Paramedics, childcare worker Revaluation – Social carers of the informed, young and sick might finally get the pay and respect they deserve, at a minimum they’ll have a stronger argument to their cases forward. We can live without many services, and these aren’t on the list.

Telemedicine Gets Real – Covid-10 will been seen as the long overdue birth of telemedicine. Our current necessity has provided proof that many of our healthcare needs can be performed remotely – firstly with GP consults going online– and eventually with robotic surgery becoming normalised.

Scientific Community – Expertise will start to get the respect it deserves. Even though some politicians have been working against their advice in many cases. Because this case is real, and has an immediate and direct impact (bodies piling up) – the truth will emerge that scientific advice must be adhered to in a modern society. We can hope that science will usurp the idolatry of celebrity and billionaire philanthropy. Throw us a bone why don’t ya Bezos!

Social Impact:

Personal Space – The handshake and kiss hello, and even the Bro Hug might evaporate from society. It’s already being espoused as a good time to stop it forever by healthcare experts. We can expect post corona social interactions to only be quasi-physical.

Increased Authoritarianism – Given the fear and solution authoritarian rule game to the virus, it opens a space for the acceptance of authoritarian rule. We’ll shift away from hyper individualism and the corporatization of society. We’ll revalue structure, control and certainty of risk avoidance.

Strengthened Family Units – Extended family lock downs will strengthen the value we put on the family unit and provide a war like and permanent bonding experience which will be generational and strengthen the value we put on the nuclear family. Historical evidence suggest that authoritarian regimes have stronger family units as a counter balance.

Digital Divide Exposed – COVID has exposed a digital divide amongst demographics. The most financially disadvantaged workers are also those who can’t work from home, and tend to be customer facing. Home schooling has also created a dearth for less well-off families whose kids lack access to basic technology to assist in home learning. This will become a focus of Gov. to ensure internet access and access to portable hardware such as laptops becomes part of the standard educational resources provided by Gov.

Re-Birth of Essentialism – Covid-19 have proven everything outside of food, housing, energy and healthcare are largely optional. By learning what we can live without a new era of essentialism will both be a cause and result of the new post covid frugality.

Decline in Celebrity Culture – The moved towards essentialism, will be a start reminder of the little value celebrity adds to our daily live. With a lack of production qualities in their covid-19 media output we’ve realised few celebrities have special talents – the celebrity herd will thin and influencers will see they are the most expendable as marketing budgets get cut.

Revival of Public Spaces – The increased usage of public parks and spaces will provide a new interest in protecting these resources and upgrading their facilities.

Cracks appear in Life Optimisation Movement – The idea of Life hacking and optimisations emanating out of Silicon Valley will become exposed as a flawed way to turn yourself into an economic robot. We’ve been reminded that just being and having freedom to move around is far more important than using digital tools to track how many steps you do, how well you sleep and counting other measures our bodies already track for us.

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Stay safe & keep thinking, Steve. 

Climate vs Coronavirus – COVID-19 series

If there is a positive to take from the current COVID-19 crisis, it’s that when it comes to the crunch and we must act, humanity is pretty damn good at mobilising itself. So, you might be wondering why can’t we make such dramatic changes for our impending climate crisis?

It’s a fine question to ask. Especially given that most scientists would agree that climate change poses a bigger threat to humanity and will cost many more lives than COVID-19. The answer is simple.

COVID-19 poses an immediate risk to life.

Climate change poses a longer-term risk to life.

The timescale of potential events has a dramatic impact on human decision-making. Our species is not particularly great at making long-term decisions, mostly because we’ve never had to. Our long-term has always been a series of short-terms strung together and unless we can survive today, tomorrow is irrelevant.

In the modern world, we might define the long term as many years or more than a decade. But as far as our DNA is concerned, anything beyond a single year, or a few seasons, is the long term. Our future is written in our history. For the best part of 200,000 years (the period for which modern anatomical humans have existed), we have lived season to season. Any planning beyond that was futile given that the majority of our resources had to be deployed towards surviving the winter, then surviving the summer. We had to survive the here and now, or there wouldn’t be a tomorrow.

During the COVID-19 crisis, we’ve learned than 46% of Australians actually live from paycheck to paycheck. This is a number that is similar to most developed economies around the world. While we have NASA-grade technologies in our pockets and homes, we haven’t evolved much from our hunter gather brethren. Most of us still ‘eat what we kill’ this week.

And what about those who have more than they need? The fortunate few who can survive this crisis financially? Well, they are the same people who benefit from the carbon dense economy we already live in. So, how then can we expect society to change how it operates? We can’t. It’s unrealistic to expect anyone to change what they do.

But if the threat is immediate enough and big enough, it turns out we can change everything. We’ve stayed home, shut down factories, closed borders, closed stores, stopped air travel and turned mega cities into ghost towns. The carbon emission reduction can be clearly seem. China and India have the cleanest skies they’ve had in many decades.

So where do we go from here?

I feel no government in the world will act until the bodies start piling up. Again, because the real problems of climate change will emerge long after our current leaders have left office. Ironically, people won’t act unless directed by their governments to change their behaviour when it’s forced upon them via police enforcement and legislative changes. Exactly as we saw with COVID-19.

It leaves me with a single hope to emerge from this crisis:

A renewed trust in science and effective government.

If only these two institutions can take their rightful position, guided by facts instead of ideology, and legislate on behalf of our long term interests, we might just have a chance.

This is why leadership and truth is more important than ever.

Choose your own Adventure – COVID-19 series

I did lots of post this week – but rather than bombard you with them every day, here they are for you to choose your own adventure:

Option 1: Our next Global Pandemics – yes, they could be worse.

Option 2: 3 Business Strategies for anyone during COVID-19 – which one is right for you?

Option 3: How saving Pennies in January, cost us Trillions in March – The real cost of hesitating.

Option 4: How the Richest Man in the World Behaves – Putting profit before people.

Option 5: Changes to the world post CoronaVirus – radio interview I did this week.

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Stay alert & stay safe,

Steve.

 

Ideas need to evolve

Everything in the modern world started as an idea. If it isn’t provided by nature, then at some point it was just an idea. The problem with ideas however, is that once we have a good one, we often forget that we need to build on them. Ideas are a continuum, not an event.

The game of basketball was invented in 1891 by James Naismith in the USA to provide a lower impact sport than Football. It isn’t too dissimilar from what we observe today. A quirky fact, is that in its first iteration fruit baskets where used to catch the ball. Seems like a pretty cool idea to get the first few games underway. But here’s what’s astounding. It wasn’t until 21 years after they started playing that they cut a hole in the baskets so the ball would drop to the floor. And yep, you guessed it, they used to use a ladder to get the balls out. For 21 long years!

There’s lots more of examples just like it: The can opener came 48 years after canned food. Wheels on suitcases weren’t common place until 50 years after the start of air travel. It makes you wonder how many crappy things could be fixed if we just took the original idea that little bit further.

Likewise some ideas become outdated – their time is up and we all move on. This is where we need to be careful. We need to make sure we don’t end up in an industry, or job which ‘as an idea’ is becoming outdated. When ideas become outdated, industries die and careers can too.

At some point we all need to find new ideas, and sometimes we even need to find new towns – especially if the one we are living in is based on an old, outdated industrial idea. Entire towns have been built around the ideas of yesteryear. This time however, we’ve all been given the dignity of choice – we can reinvent ourselves, and even our towns if we choose to. The digital world knows no geography. The biggest challenge with this idea though, is getting people to really believe it.

Maybe we need a big idea. Or just maybe, all we need is a small change, to just cut a hole in the basket and see where our ball lands.

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Your World in 2030

Ten years is not a very long time, but in a world of exponential technology, a lot can happen. So I thought I’d provide some predictions for the world by 2030. Thirty of them, to be precise. Let’s call it 30 for 2030.

Sure, some of the ideas below might seem like science fiction or fantasy, but so was much of the technology we take for granted today. It makes sense to think about these now, so that we can consider longer-term career, financial and corporate strategy decisions today. So buckle your seat belt, open your mind and enjoy!

1. All-Electric Economy: The vast majority of the energy we consume in the future will be electric. Fossil fuels will be replaced almost entirely by electricity, generated by renewables. Electricity will win not through a political battle, but purely through economics. Fossil fuels won’t be able to compete on cost. The energy will be generated by the the sun, wind and water. We’ll find a storage solution 10o times more efficient than the lithium ion batteries we use today.

2. The Energy Internet Emerges: We will be trading energy with each other through a new type of distributed energy grid. It will be akin to the way we trade information with each other on the internet now – except it will be energy – and we will generate excess energy on our buildings. Sometimes we’ll get paid for it and sometimes we’ll simply give it away. Centralised energy production will go the way of centralised news and media – and mostly be replaced by user generated content (but this time it’ll be energy).

3. Data Becomes a Liability: Data is currently seen as a commercial asset that companies try to acquire from us. By 2030 this will be reversed. Data will become a well-regulated liability. If companies hold our data it will be like a bank deposit that we own and they look after, and they’ll even have to pay us interest or fees. If they lose it, or it gets stolen, they will have to pay heavily for the mistake.

4. Globalisation Will Go into Reverse: The current trend to re-nationalise, and de-globalise will continue. Countries will become more closed and trade less. Fear of technology, job losses and immigrants will continue its current pattern. This will be further enabled by automation and manufacturing where the low-cost labour market trading advantage evaporates.

5. Climate Issues Will Re-Globalise: We will only become a truly global community when climate catastrophe demands it. While the technology to de-carbonise our economy is already here, we’ll be stifled by politics and the worst will hit in the early 2030s creating a necessary global alliance across countries for species survival.

6. Mobile Work > Office Work: More people will work away from office and formal work locations than those who work in them. Large companies will realise modern offices are a poor allocation of resources and de-centralise their workforces. Most people will be mobile in their work and cross-fertilise ideas with people outside their company and industry.

7. Freelancers Overtake Employees: There will be more freelance workers selling their time and skills on projects for companies than people who are full-time employees. As technology removes the friction of employment, we’ll all become modern day digital craftspeople.

8. Gigs with Benefits: The gig economy will evolve from its current exploitative business model. New startups will emerge to perform the roles of what unions and HR departments used to do to represent and organise gig economy workers. These quasi-union organisations will facilitate work benefits once only available to full-time employees. Think sick leave, annual leave, superannuation, training, wage negotiation. This will become a huge industry and may work in conjunction with the superannuation industry as employee numbers decline.

9. Regional Renaissance: Administrators and residents from regional areas will realise the internet can change their fortunes. Global e-commerce, lower living costs and higher living standards will create a renaissance for non-city places of great beauty. They’ll leverage their geographic monopolies and localised products, sell to global market places and compete effectively with cities.

10. Public and Private Transport Morph: The two forms of transport will continue its trajectory to differentiate from each other. Autonomous vehicles will be owned by private people who rent them to public systems. The shape of public and private transport will replicate each other and become mobile forms of commerce, relaxation and entertainment zones.

11. National Parks 2.0: National parks are generally enclaves reinventing the way the ‘world used to be’. A new form of National Park will emerge in cities. Places where there is no internet connectivity at all. These ‘zones’ will replicate pre-internet industrialisation where humans need to connect directly and nothing can be copied, documented or shared.

12. Cities Redesigned for Living: During industrialisation cities were designed around factories and offices. But cities will be reinvented to be built almost entirely around human living spaces. They will be more green than grey and grow most of the produce for their inhabitants in buildings. They will be pedestrian-centric with clean air.

13. Nationalisation of Technology Platforms: Big tech in America won’t just be split up – they may be acquired by the government and be redefined as national infrastructure – as we saw with railways. Some big tech companies will be repatriated. Many countries will build their own digital platforms such as search and social, taking them out of private hands. Algorithms will be regulated, and listed like food ingredients on digital platforms.

14. Government Will Love Small Again: Governments around the world will finally realise big powerful companies are reducing their tax revenue. They’re doing this in two major ways: through tax avoidance and reducing their number of employees paying PAYE tax due to production automation. New policies will be set in place the world over favouring local and small businesses. The current rhetoric of ‘corporate tax reduction creates employment’ will be rebuffed and the trend of lower corporate tax will be reversed.

15. Highly Paid Because Human: The highest paid jobs in the economy will be paid as such ‘because a human is actually doing it’ even if it could be automated or done by a machine. Think of the cost of a concert versus a digital download, think barista coffee versus coffee machine . We’ll start paying more for the real thing. Highest economic value will be placed on humans doing tasks for other humans, even if a robot ‘can’ do it.

16. Personal Operating Systems Will Arrive: Software systems will organise our personal lives. We’ll train them like dogs and they’ll be our personal life assistant. They will owned by the individuals (rather than a company), powered by open source software and backed up by machine learning.

17. Humans Start Merging with Machines: Information technology and biotechnology will increasingly overlap. We’ll have the first versions of ‘upgraded cognitive ability’ for humans inserted into our bodies. This will start an inevitable split in our species: neo-humans and organic-humans.

18. Humans Become a Hackable Species: As we merge with the machines, we will for the first time become hackable from the inside. The hacking process will mean that we could be programmed to behave in ways we didn’t intend. The hacking will mostly occur without our knowledge that we’ve even actually been hacked.

19. Posthumous Existence: Our memories and intelligence will become uploadable into the cloud. In doing so, many of us will have a posthumous existence and continue relationships with loved ones after we’ve passed.

20. The Higher Education Bubble Will Burst: People will wake up to the fact that all but a few (eg medical) university qualifications can be obtained online, for free, from the world’s best practitioners on those topics. Alternative education methods will emerge and gain more credibility. Knowledge will also start to become a commodity we can buy and download directly into our brains.

21. Crypto Currency Replaces Fiat: Governments around the world will launch crypto currencies to replace their fiat currency. A global crypto currency will emerge and replace the USD as the quasi-official global trading currency.

22. 3D Printing Will Have a Smart Phone Moment: A revolution in 3D printing will occur, probably associated with new materials science. Materials like graphene will become ubiquitous, like ‘plastics’ did in the 1950s.  We’ll finally end up with desktop manufacturing in most homes and offices, the way PCs became household items in the 1990s.

23. The Toilet Will Become a Laboratory: The toilet will become a digital health parter as a mini lab in your home. It will be the most high tech device in every home.

24. Everything with Electricity Will Be Smart: If it has electricity, it will be smart and connected to the cloud. There will be near zero dumb devices that require electricity to operate.

25. Augmented Reality Metastructure: A new type of virtual infrastructure will emerge in cities and homes. We’ll put some technology into our eyes (eg glasses or contact lenses) that enables enhanced digital vision of everything around us to augment the physical world and provide bespoke, on-demand information for cognitive shortcuts.

26. Universal Basic Income Will Fade Away: The robot and automation job apocalypse will never eventuate as technology will create more jobs than it destroys. With this, the fashionable concept of UBI will fade away.

27. Clean Meat Movement: Clean meat (nature identical meat grown in a lab) will be lower cost financially and environmentally, than meat grown through traditional agriculture. This will create a massive consumer shift starting with the humble burger, ending in disruption to agricultural industries.

28. Semantic Language Coding: New software will be developed granting coding powers to anyone who can speak. Software that builds software based on voice commands will democratise the code development process, mostly through AI and machine learning.

29. AI Cold War: A cold war around winning the AI race (which has already commenced) will continue, resulting in a handful of AI superpower nation states.

30. Blockchain Digital Commons: Many platform businesses like Uber and Airbnb will be replaced by a new form of Digital Commons. Software will be owned and operated by the providers of the services,  instead of a giant internet company like Uber taking 30 percent for every ride organised.

 

Some of these ideas will happen within a couple of years and some will be closer to the end of the decade – but I’m confident most of them will eventuate. The exciting bit? It’s our turn to go and build all the good stuff and help circumvent the bad bits.