Climate vs Coronavirus – COVID-19 series

If there is a positive to take from the current COVID-19 crisis, it’s that when it comes to the crunch and we must act, humanity is pretty damn good at mobilising itself. So, you might be wondering why can’t we make such dramatic changes for our impending climate crisis?

It’s a fine question to ask. Especially given that most scientists would agree that climate change poses a bigger threat to humanity and will cost many more lives than COVID-19. The answer is simple.

COVID-19 poses an immediate risk to life.

Climate change poses a longer-term risk to life.

The timescale of potential events has a dramatic impact on human decision-making. Our species is not particularly great at making long-term decisions, mostly because we’ve never had to. Our long-term has always been a series of short-terms strung together and unless we can survive today, tomorrow is irrelevant.

In the modern world, we might define the long term as many years or more than a decade. But as far as our DNA is concerned, anything beyond a single year, or a few seasons, is the long term. Our future is written in our history. For the best part of 200,000 years (the period for which modern anatomical humans have existed), we have lived season to season. Any planning beyond that was futile given that the majority of our resources had to be deployed towards surviving the winter, then surviving the summer. We had to survive the here and now, or there wouldn’t be a tomorrow.

During the COVID-19 crisis, we’ve learned than 46% of Australians actually live from paycheck to paycheck. This is a number that is similar to most developed economies around the world. While we have NASA-grade technologies in our pockets and homes, we haven’t evolved much from our hunter gather brethren. Most of us still ‘eat what we kill’ this week.

And what about those who have more than they need? The fortunate few who can survive this crisis financially? Well, they are the same people who benefit from the carbon dense economy we already live in. So, how then can we expect society to change how it operates? We can’t. It’s unrealistic to expect anyone to change what they do.

But if the threat is immediate enough and big enough, it turns out we can change everything. We’ve stayed home, shut down factories, closed borders, closed stores, stopped air travel and turned mega cities into ghost towns. The carbon emission reduction can be clearly seem. China and India have the cleanest skies they’ve had in many decades.

So where do we go from here?

I feel no government in the world will act until the bodies start piling up. Again, because the real problems of climate change will emerge long after our current leaders have left office. Ironically, people won’t act unless directed by their governments to change their behaviour when it’s forced upon them via police enforcement and legislative changes. Exactly as we saw with COVID-19.

It leaves me with a single hope to emerge from this crisis:

A renewed trust in science and effective government.

If only these two institutions can take their rightful position, guided by facts instead of ideology, and legislate on behalf of our long term interests, we might just have a chance.

This is why leadership and truth is more important than ever.

Under the Skin Surveillance – COVID-19 series

During a crisis, we have to take immediate action. But sometimes, the short-term fixes themselves become their own long-term problems.

Post 9/11

After 9/11, some things changed. We now have a permanent public security mindset. Everywhere people gather en masse, the threat of terrorism is omnipresent. This means we get our bags checked, walk through metal detectors and face a few other procedures for our collective safety. But the inconvenience hasn’t massively impacted our civil liberties.

Post Corona

Post COVID-19, we’ll see a similar pattern. Except this time, they won’t be checking for weapons we are carrying outside our bodies, but weapons we are carrying inside our bodies – viruses. Biometric testing will become the norm in places where people gather – public transport, stadiums, schools, universities and workplaces. We’ll walk through temperature sensors, breathe into analysers, look into iris scanners and be monitored by any other mass biometric measure device you can imagine. Again – not such a bad thing to keep society healthy.

Under the Skin

The problem with the above method of course, is that a virus has been shown to be capable of spreading far and wide through non-public venues. So, let’s imagine our government comes up with a better method. Every man, woman and child is given an Apple watch. The watch comes with additional sensors whose outputs automatically feed directly into a government database. The sensors constantly measure body temperature, heart rate, blood pressure, sleep patterns, where you go and who you’re near. It can even record all your conversations 24/7, which can help locate and then minimise transmissions if you are infected – just in case. Oh, and it’s mandatory for free watch holders to use Apple Pay for all their purchases – which also links to the database.

Like magic, government algorithms could analyse data and find health problems before we know we are sick and stop a potential chain of infection in its tracks. A potential epidemic could be over in mere days.

That would be awesome, right?

Long Lead Thinking

While the benefits of the above idea can clearly be seen, giving legitimacy to this level of surveillance would have a compound effect in other areas of our lives. We’d be opening up our bodies and letting big tech and government get under our skins, literally. How could the data be used in unintended ways? How could minorities be targeted? What if the data were to be hacked? How could it be matched geographically and time-stamped to other online activities? The government can start to know not just what we watch and read, but what we think and our emotional reactions towards it. All of a sudden we could have a surveillance state that literally knows how we personally feel about everything. Happiness, sadness, elation, fear and anger – our most internal and private states of being would all be on file. Forget personality testing, we’d be ranked.

The Power of Inconvenience

We need the wisdom to understand convenience always has a price. And if the price of goods in 7-Eleven has taught us anything, It’s always high.

  • Fast food is quick and convenient – but has had a massive consequence on our health
  • Fossil-fuelled economies grow quickly, but at the cost of endangering the climate
  • Handing over our personal data can produce powerful information for collective gain, but we lose privacy and individual agency.

The consequences of actions today, happen long after the moment has passed. And often, they are beyond anything we can even imagine.

Choose your own Adventure – COVID-19 series

I did lots of post this week – but rather than bombard you with them every day, here they are for you to choose your own adventure:

Option 1: Our next Global Pandemics – yes, they could be worse.

Option 2: 3 Business Strategies for anyone during COVID-19 – which one is right for you?

Option 3: How saving Pennies in January, cost us Trillions in March – The real cost of hesitating.

Option 4: How the Richest Man in the World Behaves – Putting profit before people.

Option 5: Changes to the world post CoronaVirus – radio interview I did this week.

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Stay alert & stay safe,

Steve.

 

Securing the Supply Chain – COVID-19 series

If there is one thing we’ve realised it’s how interconnected and physical our world really is. Digital can only substitute so much. With 70 years of unimpeded global growth and globalisation we’ve all become a little complacent. So I’m offering two thought experiments on possible natural and technological disasters. Two aren’t just possible, but probable.

Scenario 1: Floods in China.

Let’s imagine China faces an unprecedented period of rain due to climate change. More rain than any location has ever had in recorded history. The next result is nationwide floods, and damage to ports, which need to be close for repairs that could take 12-18 months to fix. The supply chain gets choked. Nothing can get in our out of China which isn’t on an airplane.

The global economy which has come to rely on China as its low cost factory will be in trouble again. While this wouldn’t be as calamitous as COVID-19 – it would put a bigger dint in the the economy than the GFC did. We are not ready for this. 

Scenario 2: Global Internet Virus.

Now imagine a new form of artificial intelligence develops its own agenda. Not a walking talking terminator style robot – but something more more immediate and plausible. An A.I, driven virus which is manages to take down every desktop, laptop, phone, server farm, terminal, and device connected to the internet across the entire world. And this AI virus is so clever it can work around every safety measure and firewall design into the web. The virus becomes a type of learning organism. No one knows how it started, where it came from, or how to stop it.

All we know is that we can no longer use the internet or any computing device to feed ourselves, keep our houses warm and keep people healthy. This too would impact the developed world in an unimaginably large way. We are not ready for this.

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Both scenarios would require levels of independence and redundancy most developed economies have let lapse in the name of efficiency. A stark reminder that a robust economic system needs design elements which are inefficient on purpose.

Privacy as a Luxury

Here’s some light entertainment to end the week. Our latest Future Sandwich Now-Soon-Later episode. In this episode we take a look at in big tech’s move to infiltrate our homes (ironically when we are spending more time in them)  Smart speakers, sorry, microphones, smart homes and surveillance capitalism. You’ll learn about the one thing we all used to have, that we’ll have to pay for to get back.

I’d love it if you could subscribe to our Future Sandwich Youtube channel, make a comment (feel free to disagree) and share with someone who has let Big Tech spy on them inside their house! There’s a free Google Nest Mini for the best comment. Oh, before I forget, this was recorded pre Social-Distancing.

I hope you’re all keeping safe, healthy and minimising contact. Just like business, if we do more than we’re asked, we might get a better result, and out of this situation sooner.

Steve.

P.S. Due to many requests I’m currently writing up how I see the world changing forever post Corona – which I’ll share here at a later date. 

How to make the Gig Economy ‘Work’

Over 100 million workers around the world are hoping even harder than their peers that they don’t come down with coronavirus COVID-19. Who are they? Those working in the gig economy, where benefits like sick leave are something they can’t rely on. The worst part? If they do get sick, they might just have to keep on working, which puts everyone else’s health at risk. It’s about time we got innovative to improve the gig economy for everyone.

Let’s be clear on one thing – the gig economy isn’t going away. It is not a short-term aberration, but a long-term shift. Currently, the number of gig workers is growing more than 30% every year.

In the past, the reason we became employees was because the place of work was centralised – all the tools to do our jobs resided only in factories and offices. It was also difficult to find, train, ratify the skills and organise the work of people who weren’t under a company’s direct control. But the trajectory of technology today tells us that this is no longer the case. The traditional employee is no longer required and lower paid gig work is just the start of a freelance future for all. Sure, companies will still need to get things done, but they don’t need employees. The latest ABS data shows that 30% of adults participated in freelance work this month. Additionally, it is predicted that by 2027 there will be more independent workers than PAYG wage earners in Australia.

At the dawn of the industrial revolution, the major tools of production (think factory), became centralised. Before this, the large majority of labour was undertaken independently, either on the farm or as a craftsman. When we industrialised, people came to the cities en masse to partake in higher-paid work for large firms. To remove the friction of finding and training every week, workers became employees of the firm. This quasi-permanent engagement between the parties extended into office work as we entered the information phase of industrialised economies.

Fast forward to today and the friction of labour is being removed rapidly. The technology in our homes is as good as any office. Most forms of information work can be done anywhere, with NASA-powered computers in our pockets. Disparate labour can be organised around the world too, in real time. In the future, I believe that most people won’t be employees, but ‘digital craftspeople’ who hire their time to one, or many organisations. I’ll go as far to predict that within 50 years we’ll see global multi-billion dollar corporations with exactly zero employees. All their work will be performed by independent contractors – Uber on steroids. This will happen not only because it’s logistically possible, but far more profitable.

Problem: The current situation for gig workers is sub-optimal. Workers fought hard over decades for access to safe workplaces and fair remuneration, but these rights are now being eviscerated. Benefits like annual leave, sick leave, training, OH&S standards and superannuation have conveniently become the responsibility of the worker. This is a problem when we have economic shocks like the coronavirus. We don’t need to ban gig work, or make gig workers employees. We can be smarter than that. All we need is structural innovation and we only need look as far as superannuation to find an answer.

Gig Worker 2.0

It wasn’t until 1983 that employee superannuation contributions started with The Accord and became mandatory in Australia in 1992. Prior to that, superannuation was a benefit bestowed on only the fortunate few and workers with strong unions. What we need now is a new kind of gig worker benefit scheme akin to superannuation. This benefit scheme would provide a form of security for gig economy workers. For example, a simple percentage loading on labour fees could go into a fund to create employee-style benefits (annual leave, sick leave, superannuation etc) for gig workers, paid for by the firms hiring gig labour. Gig workers currently forego these benefits many of us take for granted. This way, gig workers can maintain their living standards and dignity while they are making their economic contribution . Governments the world over would do well to implement such a policy.

While the numbers would need to be verified, I would estimate the gig worker loading should be around 20%. While that might sound quite high, studies show that employee on-costs are anywhere up to 50% of their wages. If firms employing flexible labour say it won’t work – then I’d argue they don’t have a sustainable business model in the first instance.

The fund would need be in the worker’s name and ported wherever they perform gig labour. If we managed to pass such a law, our economy would be better placed to cope with the long-term shift to independent labour gigs, remain flexible, but also be able to cope with periodic shocks to the economy. It could also invent an entire industry for Australia – one whose model could actually become an export.

A New Industry

At some point in the near future, a smart government somewhere will implement such a policy (which is better than forcing gig workers to become employees), and lead the world in inventing an entirely new industry. In Australia alone, our Superannuation industry (which was spawned by the union movement) is now a $2.7 trillion industry and the 4th largest pension fund asset holder in the world. We’ve led the way. If we are first to set up this kind of a policy structure, we could export the financial management model of gig support the world over. However, this takes foresight, courage and political will.

Unions & The Gig Economy

Union memberships are in steep decline – it’s now less than 15% of workforce. In 1960, it was 60%.  It is difficult to see a future for unions. unless they reinvent themselves and pivot to offering non-union workers something they need in the future. Fighting for gig economy workers is the perfect innovation staring the union movement in the face. Unions should start focusing on representing new types of labour, who have powerful forces (like Big Tech) exploiting them. Enter, gig workers. Fuelling the erosion of the union member base is a myopic view of the type of labour that fits their model. They have an opportunity right now to go beyond traditional blue collar work, start a movement and become relevant again. Instead of using standover tactics to create profit share and inordinate wage rises, they can focus on what gave them relevance over 100 years ago, and that is fighting for fairness and a sustainable workforce.

If there’s anything we need in our economy, it is regulatory innovation to match the rapidly changing technology driven labour market. Yes – governments need to innovate too.

I spoke about this topic on ABC radio yesterday – click here to listen.

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Robot Love

We don’t just have a relationship with technology, we use technology to find relationships. Newspapers, video dating, website matching services and apps – and to the most direct of all – Tinder.

The reason Tinder works is simple. It replicates human behaviour in the real world. The moment someone walks into a night club they look around at the faces of people and say to themselves, Yes, No, No ,Yes, No, No, No, No Yes, Yes. And the people they are looking at are doing the same thing back at them – assuming of course they are both looking to meet someone. But in the actual nightclub there is that awkward discovery process of trying to work out if the other party feels the same way. Which then becomes the business model of the nightclub – Sell people drinks for that few hours of the discovery process.

One of the core functions of the alcoholic drinks was to make people look better, and feel more confident. Well, technology has managed to do replace this as well – let’s just say that instagram filters are the new beer goggles!

Technology has a way of replicating what we do in the real world, and in doing so, it creates competition in business which are non traditional, even hard to align. Beer volumes may decline due digital photo filters. Insights like this are very difficult to report in a corporate market share update.

In the not too distant future – things could get even weirder. People developing serious relationships with humanoid robots – Robots which look, feel and act, just like humans. The vote 50 years from now might make gay marriage seem so minor as we vote on whether or not humans and robots can get married!

Happy Valentines Day.