How to make the Gig Economy ‘Work’

Over 100 million workers around the world are hoping even harder than their peers that they don’t come down with coronavirus COVID-19. Who are they? Those working in the gig economy, where benefits like sick leave are something they can’t rely on. The worst part? If they do get sick, they might just have to keep on working, which puts everyone else’s health at risk. It’s about time we got innovative to improve the gig economy for everyone.

Let’s be clear on one thing – the gig economy isn’t going away. It is not a short-term aberration, but a long-term shift. Currently, the number of gig workers is growing more than 30% every year.

In the past, the reason we became employees was because the place of work was centralised – all the tools to do our jobs resided only in factories and offices. It was also difficult to find, train, ratify the skills and organise the work of people who weren’t under a company’s direct control. But the trajectory of technology today tells us that this is no longer the case. The traditional employee is no longer required and lower paid gig work is just the start of a freelance future for all. Sure, companies will still need to get things done, but they don’t need employees. The latest ABS data shows that 30% of adults participated in freelance work this month. Additionally, it is predicted that by 2027 there will be more independent workers than PAYG wage earners in Australia.

At the dawn of the industrial revolution, the major tools of production (think factory), became centralised. Before this, the large majority of labour was undertaken independently, either on the farm or as a craftsman. When we industrialised, people came to the cities en masse to partake in higher-paid work for large firms. To remove the friction of finding and training every week, workers became employees of the firm. This quasi-permanent engagement between the parties extended into office work as we entered the information phase of industrialised economies.

Fast forward to today and the friction of labour is being removed rapidly. The technology in our homes is as good as any office. Most forms of information work can be done anywhere, with NASA-powered computers in our pockets. Disparate labour can be organised around the world too, in real time. In the future, I believe that most people won’t be employees, but ‘digital craftspeople’ who hire their time to one, or many organisations. I’ll go as far to predict that within 50 years we’ll see global multi-billion dollar corporations with exactly zero employees. All their work will be performed by independent contractors – Uber on steroids. This will happen not only because it’s logistically possible, but far more profitable.

Problem: The current situation for gig workers is sub-optimal. Workers fought hard over decades for access to safe workplaces and fair remuneration, but these rights are now being eviscerated. Benefits like annual leave, sick leave, training, OH&S standards and superannuation have conveniently become the responsibility of the worker. This is a problem when we have economic shocks like the coronavirus. We don’t need to ban gig work, or make gig workers employees. We can be smarter than that. All we need is structural innovation and we only need look as far as superannuation to find an answer.

Gig Worker 2.0

It wasn’t until 1983 that employee superannuation contributions started with The Accord and became mandatory in Australia in 1992. Prior to that, superannuation was a benefit bestowed on only the fortunate few and workers with strong unions. What we need now is a new kind of gig worker benefit scheme akin to superannuation. This benefit scheme would provide a form of security for gig economy workers. For example, a simple percentage loading on labour fees could go into a fund to create employee-style benefits (annual leave, sick leave, superannuation etc) for gig workers, paid for by the firms hiring gig labour. Gig workers currently forego these benefits many of us take for granted. This way, gig workers can maintain their living standards and dignity while they are making their economic contribution . Governments the world over would do well to implement such a policy.

While the numbers would need to be verified, I would estimate the gig worker loading should be around 20%. While that might sound quite high, studies show that employee on-costs are anywhere up to 50% of their wages. If firms employing flexible labour say it won’t work – then I’d argue they don’t have a sustainable business model in the first instance.

The fund would need be in the worker’s name and ported wherever they perform gig labour. If we managed to pass such a law, our economy would be better placed to cope with the long-term shift to independent labour gigs, remain flexible, but also be able to cope with periodic shocks to the economy. It could also invent an entire industry for Australia – one whose model could actually become an export.

A New Industry

At some point in the near future, a smart government somewhere will implement such a policy (which is better than forcing gig workers to become employees), and lead the world in inventing an entirely new industry. In Australia alone, our Superannuation industry (which was spawned by the union movement) is now a $2.7 trillion industry and the 4th largest pension fund asset holder in the world. We’ve led the way. If we are first to set up this kind of a policy structure, we could export the financial management model of gig support the world over. However, this takes foresight, courage and political will.

Unions & The Gig Economy

Union memberships are in steep decline – it’s now less than 15% of workforce. In 1960, it was 60%.  It is difficult to see a future for unions. unless they reinvent themselves and pivot to offering non-union workers something they need in the future. Fighting for gig economy workers is the perfect innovation staring the union movement in the face. Unions should start focusing on representing new types of labour, who have powerful forces (like Big Tech) exploiting them. Enter, gig workers. Fuelling the erosion of the union member base is a myopic view of the type of labour that fits their model. They have an opportunity right now to go beyond traditional blue collar work, start a movement and become relevant again. Instead of using standover tactics to create profit share and inordinate wage rises, they can focus on what gave them relevance over 100 years ago, and that is fighting for fairness and a sustainable workforce.

If there’s anything we need in our economy, it is regulatory innovation to match the rapidly changing technology driven labour market. Yes – governments need to innovate too.

I spoke about this topic on ABC radio yesterday – click here to listen.

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Now-Soon-Later

As you know I’m currently working on a new TV show called Future Sandwich. But quite frankly me and Tommy have contend and ideas pouring out of our ears. So we’ve decided to do a weekly web series called:

Now – Soon – Later

Each week we’ll take a tech topic in the news and break it down to these 3 little bits. Discuss what happening now, what will happen soon and where it’s going later. This week we talked about the inevitable Flying Taxi on the back of Uber Air and Lillium announcements. You’ll love my predictions… mind blowing.

Check out the First episode below – It’s a quick 4 mins and it’ll give you solid sound bites to take into the boardroom or next dinner party. It’s recorded with no-prep, off the cuff while cruising the means streets of Melbourne into the Future Sandwich TV Studio. You’ll dig it.

Please share and why not subscribe to our new Youtube channel while you’re at it.

The Uber IPO – Imaginary Profits Only

Last Friday night, I did a TV interview on ABC regarding Uber’s long awaited IPO. An IPO is when a company first becomes a publicly traded stock that anyone can buy and hold. To put it bluntly, Uber is a terrible investment for anyone who didn’t already own the shares in it before it went public. But I do think this IPO is very instructive from a technology business strategy and investment perspective, so I thought I’d lay it out in clear terms why I don’t think Uber has a bright future as a publicly traded stock. So get ready for some finance meets tech nerdocity below.

The Valuation: Uber was priced at $45 USD per share giving it a valuation of  around $82 billion USD. This means Uber is a more valuable company than Ford and GM combined. It closed its first day of trade down 8% at a price of $41.60. To be clear, the founders, early investors and many employees ended the day very rich indeed. And yes, they have a terrific service many of us enjoy more than we ever did taking the traditional taxi cabs. It might also be that many investors, hungry to get their hands on ‘high tech’ stocks like Uber will irrationally push the share price up – especially given most tech companies stay private for much longer these days.

  • Amazon IPO 1997 – 2 years after it was founded
  • Google IPO 2004 – 5 years after it was founded
  • Facebook IPO 2012 – 8 years after it was founded
  • Uber IPO 2019 – 10 years after it was founded

Even though retail investors have far less access to high growth companies these days, I can’t help but think Uber will never be achieve the long term profitability serious investors will require. Here’s why:

Profit: Uber currently loses $10 for every $30 ride transaction. The more it grows, the more money it loses. And this problem can’t be fixed easily. It’s not like other software businesses, because every ride has a real and unavoidable marginal cost. The difference between it and companies like Google and Facebook is that new users come with very little cost increase, if any. Uber, on the other hand, doesn’t.

Cost Cutting: The main opportunity for Uber to cut costs is to simply remove its drivers and replace them with autonomous vehicles. It seems pretty clear to me that Uber regards its drivers as ‘holding places for robots’. The problem however, is that as soon as Uber can reduce operating costs by employing autonomous cars, so can Ford, GM, Tesla, Google and every other car manufacturer in the world. All of whom already have autonomous car projects and eyes on the market of transport as a service.

Adjacent Businesses: Again Uber has done well to create offshoots including Uber Eats, but just like the example above, as soon as autonomous cars and drones become possible for local eateries, and much cheaper, I don’t see why any of them would hand over that margin to Uber when they could simply do it themselves. It also should be said that if they become a ‘logistics company’ then they better get good at competing with Amazon.

Low Barriers to Entry: Of all the large technology businesses going around, Uber is the least complex – evidenced by the increasing number of its competitors around the world, including Ola and Didi. The low barriers to entry aren’t just because of the simplicity of the software model, but counter to popular belief, there isn’t a dramatic network effect. A network effect is present when a service gets better when more people use the same service, like Facebook. In real terms, users just need enough cars on the service they choose and most savvy drivers operate on all the rideshare apps simultaneously. In my view, it’s only a matter of time before we see ridesharing drivers cut out the middleman and develop their own app so they won’t have to pay extortionate fees to a third party like Uber. This just might make the difference for the work to be fair economically for the drivers.

Legal Issues & Regulation: On top of all its general business challenges, Uber is fighting dozens of legal cases. It is also highly likely government regulation will further impact its business model as its drivers become legally recognised employees. While tech used to be everyone’s darling, there has been a clear sentiment shift recently to question their ethics and impact on wider society.

If there is anything the Uber float points out, it’s that a business that’s good for consumers, doesn’t always result in a good business.

Worried your job might disappear? This taxi driver isn't.

taxi driver - travis

I spend my fair share of time in taxis and Ubers in order to get to the airport. One of the topics I find interesting is to ask the drivers what they think about changes in the taxi / private driver industry. Sometimes I ask them, but I’m also finding they bring up the topic before I do. So here is the tale of 3 drivers in the same industry.

Driver 1 – A taxi driver

A driver in a taxi told me that allowing Uber on the road was a travesty given he had paid so much money for his taxi license plate. One taxi licence plate currently sells for over $200,000, but has declined in value recently. It is unfair in many ways, but technology often does that – it creates change without notice. He thought the government should protect taxi drivers and that Uber should not be allowed to operate. I agree that Uber should be regulated for safety reasons, but I also think innovations should not be stifled by them. His final statement was that he thought he’d go broke or leave the industry. He said that very soon no one will be able to make a living driving a car.

Driver 2 – An Uber & limo driver

This gentleman, who drives his car for both Uber and a limousine company, said that Uber was good to provide extra revenue between jobs. But he then went onto say that he thought Uber, on the whole was good for now, but in the next few years, self-drive cars would put every driver out of business and that he would just make as much money as he could until that next coming disruption put him out of business.

Driver 3 – An Uber & limo driver

This gentleman was enthusiastic about life. Within 10 minutes in the car, he’d really been positive about everything we were talking about regarding life and business. As usual we got onto the topic of the taxi / private car industry. He told me that Uber was really working for him, but then he mentioned something I didn’t expect. He went on to say that the biggest opportunity for drivers was just around the corner, he said;  “I can’t wait for self-drive cars to arrive!” So I asked him what that excited him and this is what he told me:

“For the first time in my working life as a driver, I’ll be able to make money when I’m not in the car. I’ll buy a number of self drive cars as quick as I can. I’ll invest my time in generating business and serving loyal customers. Instead of me just driving, I’ll be at the airport every morning to great my best customers, I’ll have their favourite coffee ready, and an umbrella if it is raining. I’ll be able to build a business around the edges of the new self drive technology. I’ll be a millionaire within a year.”

Three drivers, same industry, challenges and opportunities – one very different attitude.

You should totally read my book – The Great Fragmentation.

The Uber attitude & surge pricing

Travis from Uber

Today the ride share service Uber, did more again of what it seems to be good at – acting like jerks. During the Sydney Siege they conducted a price surge and put prices up to reflect the demand for transport at a time of serious civil disturbance. But the most disturbing thing, isn’t the price, it’s really the attitude.

This is one time when industry disrupters can take an important lesson from their industrial era counterparts. Let’s take legacy airlines. Our national carrier Qantas has on many occasions diverted flights at no cost to pull people out of countries which present an immediate danger to Australian travellers.

While Uber later countered their original decision with a ‘Oh, and we’ll pay the fares’ tweet – below – it was clearly an afterthought when the rightfully astounded community reacted.

Screen Shot 2014-12-15 at 4.09.50 pm

It turns out our natural intentions are revealed by how we behave before we get feedback.

New book – The Great Fragmentation – out now!