startups Archives - Page 96 of 117

2 schools of business valuation

Posted on October 10, 2009 by Steve Sammartino

A favourite game of entrepreneurs, especially in the technology industry is discussing whether companies are worth the price they are bought out for. $1.5 billion for Youtube ………. Sales prices with infinite price earnings multiples (because there are no earnings, or they are loss making). Versus a company being sold for a few times it’s annual earnings with a long period of earnings history.

A more relevant discussion would be which school of business valuation was used during the transaction, and there are two:

1. Sale price representing believed potential

2. Sale price representing return on investment reality

Which is more valid? Well it depends on which side of the equation you are residing. I’d say when selling, we should be aiming for potential. When buying we should go with reality. When buying a business the simplest question to ask ourselves is this:

On current earnings, how many years will it take me to get back my original investment.

There’s no doubt certain industries are more likely to sell using the potential valuation method. Burgeoning industries like the internet, IPO’s and even railways 200 years ago are good examples. To get away with selling on ‘potential’ the industry needs to be growing, the future unknown and your company well known. If your startup ever gets enough traction to sell to an incumbent, then take what you can get – sell on potential.

Startup School – update

Posted on October 8, 2009 by Steve Sammartino

There are only a couple of seats left for the Melbourne event. If you’re thinking of attending, it’s time to get moving and book, as I expect the event to be closed by the weekend. Remember there is a money back guarantee for me to ‘blow your mind’. If you need to contact me, my details are in the side bar.

See you there, Steve.

Why iterations matter

Posted on October 8, 2009 by Steve Sammartino

When it comes to startups iterations matter a lot. They are evidence of the business pulse. They mean we are progressing and building momentum.

But there are some deeper reasons why iterations matter so much. Iterations give us a reason to go back. To go back to the market ‘our people’ and re-engage in a conversation. It gives us something to talk about, stimulate interest and demand. To glean feedback from, regardless of who this conversation happens to be with. Our business is essentially a large complex set of conversations, and the changes we make facilitate them.

So who can we go back to with our iterations?

– Our customers who want to know how these iterations help them out

– Our employees who can get excited about the cool stuff they have been / will be working on

– Our suppliers who can get excited about the prospect of more business

– The media want to report on innovation, updates and the industry

Pic via Alex Figueroa

All of these conversations stimulate our business, our industry and ultimately the market place. Our iterations have a much bigger impact than we think. It’s far more macro.

Iterations are social, and we are social creatures. If nothing has changed or improved, then we move on. It is human nature.

Decision intertia

Posted on October 8, 2009 by Steve Sammartino

I was having an interesting discussion with a colleague Cris Pearson (founder of Skitch & Comic Life) about pricing models on the web – as soon I’ll be changing the rentoid model.

I asked his some advice and his response was so simple it is till ringing in my ears.He said;

The more choices you give consumers, the less likely they are to do any anything.

He then went on to say ‘choose a price’ not multiple options, to avoid decision inertia. The question for startups is – what complexity barriers have we created which stop our people from buying from us?

Timing vs Time in

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Steve Sammartino

The timing versus time in argument is a long standing one in investment circles. And it gos a little bit like this:

People who are for ‘timing’ the market proclaim that smart investors should time their entry and exit for their investments. And that investors should exit when markets are too hot, for example when price earnings ratios are well above the long term average. And enter at the opposite end of the spectrum. Resulting in higher profits.

People are are for ‘time in’ the market proclaim that smart investors should stay in the market at all times. That when you enter or exit the market does not matter so long as the investment has been in market long enough. Which will result in a long term result of profitability due to the period of time in the market, allowing market averages to endure.

Both parties happen to be correct.

What neither side bothers to discuss is most important factor in either strategy. Probability. The probability of success of either the two different investment strategies. It turns out that it’s a pretty simple proposition related to risk and probability.

Timing the market – Can have very high returns (losses) but a much lower probability of success.

Time in the market – Has average returns (rarely losses) and a very high probability of success.

Numerous studies have proven the above to be fact.

How does this pertain top startups? Well it reminds me a lot of the internet and entrepreneurs attitude towards it. Most entrepreneurs believe that the only way to succeed is to win big. To sell out our startup to some digital behemoth. Our business brains have been hijacked by the Techcrunch stories and the large novelty checks presented to the likes of My Space, Facebook, Digg, Flickr and friends …

These are a little bit like investments where the market has been timed. It’s a low probability event. Sure there’s a lot more to it than a passive investment vehicle, but the probability of it happening is so to us, is so low that it’s not worth considering.

What we ought do instead is focus on the high probability events. In an entrepreneurial sense success is a very long term proposition. So our goal should be to remain in the entrepreneurial game as long as possible. As we do this we inevitability move up the learning curve and increase our chance of winning at some time in the future. Winning may not mean a cheque in the millions, but it might mean earning 5 times what we could in wages, as well as having a lot more fun doing it.

So how do we stay in the game?

Keep our costs low. Know how to bootstrap. Enjoy the simple things in life. Know that the having is in the doing, not in the owning of stuff.

Startup Blog says: Use probability to your advantage

Corporate Escape Artist – Jake Lodwick channeling

Posted on October 5, 2009 by Steve Sammartino

I’ve recently happened upon the Odwick project from serial creative Jacob Lodwick (founder of vimeo.com). Odwick is a 10 episode project I think most of my readers will like. I can’t describe it. It seriously blew me away. So much so that I was trying to find a reason to post one of his videos right here on Startup blog. Thankfully the second to last video in the Odwick project gave me that opportunity. It’s probably what many of us out there have felt while we resided in cubicle land, or still do feel if we haven’t managed to pull off an escape yet.

[vimeo http://vimeo.com/6492221]

Twitter rules

Posted on October 2, 2009 by Steve Sammartino

These are the rules I have invented for myself for effective use of twitter. By the way, it’s pretty much the only social media tool I use these days. Mainly due to it’s succinctness. When it comes to Twitter this is how I roll:

– it’s my office water cooler. It’s the office conversations for us entrepreneurs

– it’s an advice forum where I ask my twitter friends (smart people I trust) questions I don’t know the answer to

– it’s where I’m not afraid to have an opinion even if it’s a bit risky

– it’s where I don’t do anything I wouldn’t do in the real world. The on line world is the real world

– it’s where I meet like minded people. First virtually, then physically

– it’s where I get last minute tips for restaurants, bars, coffee and traffic updates

– it’s where I document my life, verbally and visually via twitpic.

– it’s where my digitally inclined friends are. I’m glad they are there

– it’s where I promote my stuff occasionally, but this plays a minor role

– it’s where I share cool stuff I find, to the people who will care about it

– it’s where my reputation is on the line 140 characters at a time

– it’s where I won’t just make friends because you shook my hand (called following)

– it’s where I will become your friend if you engage in a conversation with me (called @ replying)

Startup blog says: Twitter is a friend of the entrepreneur.

How do you use twitter?