AI – Merging with Machines

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The debate is heating up on Artificial Intelligence. Many experts believe that we’ve created AI which is close to becoming self aware. If that is true, we only have one choice.

We must merge with the machines.

If we don’t do this, we may lose our status as the alfa species on the planet. Machine Intelligence Researcher, Eliezer Yudkowsky believes we are in a very bad position and things could get radical quickly. While no one knows for sure, he has a deep, interesting and scary discussion about the issue here.

It’s Evolution Baby

Here is what I know for sure. Every species that exists today, evolved from something else. AI, is something we’ve literally given birth to. Not via traditional, biological methods, but we created it nonetheless. It is the child of a biological being – us. We have used our biological intelligence, and created it from natural substances on earth. Everything on earth is natural.

It may just be that we are subconsciously, as a species, configuring a way to evolve much more quickly outside of our bodies, before work out a way for the AI technology to enter our bodies. And eventually allow it to interact with our wet-ware. If we do this, and I think we will, it won’t be us versus the machine, we will become the machine. In time, we’ll work out a way to breed with it inside our progeny. It feels to me like part of the natural evolutionary process. I wrote about this inevitability 6 years ago.

Get me to deliver my new Keynote on AI  I discuss our species merging with machines & what it means for your organisation. Make your next conference one to remember!

A New Species… and Podcast

If or when this occurs our species will split. We’ll have NEO Humans (tech-enhanced) and Luddite Humans (bio-beings). It’ll be a bit like some of the chimpanzees who decided to climb down from the tree, walk on two legs, and cross the Savana. Some will adapt, and some won’t. That moment is approaching quickly.

I discussed this issue in detail on my new Podcast ‘The Futuristic’. I have two co-hosts – one is a generative AI we’ve built, called Sailli (pronounced ‘Sally’). She interacts with us in the podcast. We even created her a fake face – she is below.

You can listen and subscribe here.

I’m also doing the Podcast with Cameron Reilly who is one of the smartest people I’ve ever met (not as smart as Sailli though). And we all disagree often. Our goal is simple, to go deep on tech. To go beyond the headlines, and uncover if we’re living the Jetson’s style future we were promised. It’s a great listen – get on it. We’ll be iterating the format as we go.

Be sure to email me back and tell me what you think about merging with the tech. I always love to hear your thoughts.

Keep Thinking,

Steve.

Disrupting Google

Business disruption is not caused by technology alone. For it to occur we need 2 things to arrive simultaneously.

(1) A new technology

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(2) A new business model

If we only have one, the incumbents can usually adapt. They can plug the new tech into the existing business model. Or, they can revert the old technology into a new business model.

For example:

The Music Industry had 3 new technologies before they got disrupted. They had the phonograph, the tape and the CD. Each time they sold the new tech in the old business model. It wasn’t until the mp3 arrived until the industry changed. When that happened, the business model shifted with the tech, which resulted in disruption: Napster (stealing music) and Apple iTunes (buying music one song at a time). Then when streaming arrived, a further disruption occurred as both the tech and business model shifted once more. No one buys music, they subscribe to it.

Likewise, when the Airline Industry had low cost airlines arrive. A new business model emerged, but because it was utilising existing technology: planes, airports and booking engines, legacy players could plug in low cost sub-brands. No real industry disruption transpired.

Most Successful Consumer Product Launch in History

Chat GPT is the fastest-growing consumer product in history. It had over a million users in its first week and more than 100 million in two months. Previous technology juggernauts haven’t come close: TikTok took nine months to get to 100 million users, Instagram took nearly three years and Google took nearly two years to reach this milestone. It isn’t just the rapid growth of users of the platform that’s interesting. It’s that it demands a review of internet Search as we know it, how we perform searches literally and the resulting business model which underlies it. It may even redirect us away from advertising and the prevailing surveillance capitalism model.

The technology and business model just changed for search. Sounds crazy to say it, but Google could be in trouble. If there was ever a company which looked dominant and unstoppable mere months ago, it was Alphabet. Their Google search engine commands a 90%-plus share in most of the markets it operates in. Then along came ChatGPT.

Will your company be the Disrupter or the Disrupted with AI ? Get me in to share my mind blowing new Keynote Speech – and win in the new AI era.

Bing v Google

At the moment it looks like Open AI, the developers behind ChatGPT, have everything to gain, but behind the scenes is tech overlord Microsoft. If all goes to plan they could be the unexpected winner in AI, and there are literally trillions of dollars in market capitalisation at stake. Microsoft’s 23 January $10 billion investment in Open AI may well be the tech deal of the century. As a part of it Microsoft will have exclusive access to Open AI’s product suite, and will gain a 49% share of Open AI. However, Open AI will need to give back Microsoft 75% of the profits until Microsoft recoups its initial investment. Microsoft have already plugged ChatGPT into their Bing Search engine, and it is pretty damn good. I’ve switched already. But is isn’t just the product which puts google at risk, it’s the costs and business model.

The cost per ‘prompt’ on ChatGPT is currently around $0.02c. This is vastly more than the $0.00001 per Google search, and probably couldn’t support a pay per click or display advertising model. The recent option to subscribing to ChatGPT for $20 per month is a clue as to where the business model of Generative AI is likely to go – subscription rather than advertising. This would both remove the ‘free rider’ problem, and temptation to compromise product quality to appease the advertising model supporting it. Subscription is also needed because AI is far too expensive per prompt to run a pay per click model. This is a major problem for Google – which people use for free.

The market is likely to bifurcate into two segments: Search (Traditional web links) and Creation (Generative AI).

Think about it – if we shift our search habits to ask questions and getting an actual answer, rather than a page of links and options – the pay per click model could die alongside it. Bing might just become the world’s first Premium Search engine – a pay to play for a different kind of search.

The Code Red which was called in through halls of the GooglePlex hasn’t resulted in anything that seems like a worthy response to ChatGPT. After a failed demo last week of the Google AI chatbot Bard, it lost more than $100 billion in market cap. But I also wonder if the market senses that Google has far more to lose even if (and most likely when) it develops a competitive AI product. 58% percent of Alphabet’s revenue comes from search, which is driven by pay per click advertising, which simply can’t survive with generative AI – there are literally no clicks when you get a direct answer. Currently Microsoft only generates 5% of its revenue from Bing pay per click advertising. In real terms, it has a potential ten-fold search revenue upside, with near zero downside all the while potentially adding a new weapon to its already strong enterprise offers of Windows, Office and Azure. AI inside your own laptop, generating answers from your own personal data. That would be super powerful, personally and at an enterprise level.

Just when we thought we thought a one tech firm could never be usurped, a new technology comes along which potentially changes everything.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve

Robotic Love

Recently it was my daughter’s birthday. So I decided to write a poem about her as a gift.

Here it is:

Flora, a girl with a heart full of dreams. Turning thirteen, her future beams.

With a book in hand, she loves to read. Fantasy worlds, is where she likes to lead

Writing stories, her imagination flows. Creating characters, she knows and chose.

Drawing pictures, her talent is true. Artistic skills, she’ll always pursue.

Learning new things, her curious mind. Expanding her knowledge, she’s one of a kind.

With family by her side, laughter and cheer. Making memories, she holds dear

Playing piano, her fingers glide. Melodic notes, her heart resides.

Guitar sessions with dad, a special bond. Music brings them together, and beyond.

As she grows, her passions will bloom. A bright future, she’ll soon assume.

Happy 13th birthday Flora , keep shining bright – May your dreams take flight.

Of course, you already guessed that this was written by ChatGPT.

I’ll admit it isn’t the worlds greatest poem, I’ll call it serviceable, and better than I’d write. This is the prompt I gave ChatGPT to come up with it: “Make a poem, Make it rhyme. Let it be about a girl turning 13 whose name is Flora. Include the following topics; reading, writing, drawing, learning new things, hanging out with family, playing piano, having a guitar session with dad”.

So, I read this out to my daughter, who really likes it, and is quite emotional. She says; “It’s so beautiful! How long did it take? When did you write it?” I say; “Just now, took me about 30 seconds to generate using ChatGPT…”

Bonus: Free Interview of me talking about how ChatGPT works and if Skynet has arrived!

My daughter went from being moved to pretty disappointed. The poem hadn’t changed, just ‘where it came from’. She told me she liked it because I did it, not the words, and went on to say, it’s just not as good anymore. This is what we ought remember.

I knew this would happen, but I really wanted to see a real human reaction to Robot Love. (FYI – I wrote her something myself as well which I’ll keep private – I’m, not that evil).

I also told her why I did it and explained the new tech and pending impact of society. And she was totally cool with it and asked me to put the story in my new AI keynote, which I have.

Don’t get left behind: Get me in to deliver my mind blowing new Keynote Speech on How AI is about to change your industry.

Here’s the Business Insight: When it comes to creativity, the future won’t be about whether AI can do it (it will be able) – it will be about choosing if we want it done by an AI, or human. Increasingly, we’ll need to choose between efficiency or humanity. Your customer should guide you. Depending on the context, how something was made is as important as what was created.

Keep thinking,

Steve.

How A.I. just changed the Internet

Welcome to 2023 – This year I’ve promised myself to post here every Friday – starting today of course.

The impact of ChatGPT has been well documented in the media. If you haven’t played around with it yet – then I strongly suggest you give it a whirl.

There have been many articles about which industries and jobs ChatGPT might disrupt. Here’s a much simpler way to look at it from the Sammatron: If your job or industry uses ‘words’ – it will be impacted.

It’s that simple. It will impact everything. Like the internet that came before it, ChatGPT brings inordinate opportunities for those who choose to embrace the new reality.

The internet is currently:

A Giant Filing Cabinet

Everything we see on the internet is made by someone, somewhere. Words, pictures and video, all of it. Our experience on the internet is basically asking services to find and serve up what we’ve subscribed to or what we’ve searched for in this giant filing cabinet of human creation. Even when it is live, it’s still us peering in the window of what someone else is making or doing. This is why search and social are so powerful. That’s about to change.

We are about to go from Search Engines to Creation Engines.

(Read the above sentence again, it’s that important)

Let me explain. Starting now – we will shift from asking the internet to find what we want to asking it to create what we want. We’ll be expecting it to answer exact questions to queries, summarise things, write for us, create images, pictures, stories, animations, rap songs and even write software code for us by literally asking it to create an app that does XYZ. We are about to see another level of technology democratisation beyond what anyone can imagine.

ProTip: Get me to come into your company and deliver my mind blowing new Keynote Speech on How AI is about to change everything.

The art of the internet will rely on our ability to work with Artificial Intelligence. We’ll need to cajole the AIs to create what we are after. We’ll need to become great at prompting and teaching AIs how to build what we desire, because when used correctly, AI should be a mind expanding tool. An addendum to our biology, not a replacement. We’ll need to learn how to literally ‘train the AIs’ like we might a train a dog. It will be about the symbiosis of using tools. From a business perspective, our attention should be focused on industries that can cut costs through large language models and AI-generated imagery. The business of words and images will have production costs cut dramatically.

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Our imaginations on what to ‘make’ will become increasingly important. Here’s a prompt we might give very soon: “Create a seven minute animated movie, in manga style. Let it star a seven year old girl named Mary (base her animation on this picture) and her magic pony, who saves the world from a climate crisis. Give me versions in English, Spanish and Mandarin.”

As  I’ve previously written, the ability to determine what was made by a human or a machine will be increasingly difficult to differentiate. Likewise, an entirely new species of startups and business opportunities will emerge. It’s early, so it’s time to get started.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve.