Disrupting Google

Business disruption is not caused by technology alone. For it to occur we need 2 things to arrive simultaneously.

(1) A new technology

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(2) A new business model

If we only have one, the incumbents can usually adapt. They can plug the new tech into the existing business model. Or, they can revert the old technology into a new business model.

For example:

The Music Industry had 3 new technologies before they got disrupted. They had the phonograph, the tape and the CD. Each time they sold the new tech in the old business model. It wasn’t until the mp3 arrived until the industry changed. When that happened, the business model shifted with the tech, which resulted in disruption: Napster (stealing music) and Apple iTunes (buying music one song at a time). Then when streaming arrived, a further disruption occurred as both the tech and business model shifted once more. No one buys music, they subscribe to it.

Likewise, when the Airline Industry had low cost airlines arrive. A new business model emerged, but because it was utilising existing technology: planes, airports and booking engines, legacy players could plug in low cost sub-brands. No real industry disruption transpired.

Most Successful Consumer Product Launch in History

Chat GPT is the fastest-growing consumer product in history. It had over a million users in its first week and more than 100 million in two months. Previous technology juggernauts haven’t come close: TikTok took nine months to get to 100 million users, Instagram took nearly three years and Google took nearly two years to reach this milestone. It isn’t just the rapid growth of users of the platform that’s interesting. It’s that it demands a review of internet Search as we know it, how we perform searches literally and the resulting business model which underlies it. It may even redirect us away from advertising and the prevailing surveillance capitalism model.

The technology and business model just changed for search. Sounds crazy to say it, but Google could be in trouble. If there was ever a company which looked dominant and unstoppable mere months ago, it was Alphabet. Their Google search engine commands a 90%-plus share in most of the markets it operates in. Then along came ChatGPT.

Will your company be the Disrupter or the Disrupted with AI ? Get me in to share my mind blowing new Keynote Speech – and win in the new AI era.

Bing v Google

At the moment it looks like Open AI, the developers behind ChatGPT, have everything to gain, but behind the scenes is tech overlord Microsoft. If all goes to plan they could be the unexpected winner in AI, and there are literally trillions of dollars in market capitalisation at stake. Microsoft’s 23 January $10 billion investment in Open AI may well be the tech deal of the century. As a part of it Microsoft will have exclusive access to Open AI’s product suite, and will gain a 49% share of Open AI. However, Open AI will need to give back Microsoft 75% of the profits until Microsoft recoups its initial investment. Microsoft have already plugged ChatGPT into their Bing Search engine, and it is pretty damn good. I’ve switched already. But is isn’t just the product which puts google at risk, it’s the costs and business model.

The cost per ‘prompt’ on ChatGPT is currently around $0.02c. This is vastly more than the $0.00001 per Google search, and probably couldn’t support a pay per click or display advertising model. The recent option to subscribing to ChatGPT for $20 per month is a clue as to where the business model of Generative AI is likely to go – subscription rather than advertising. This would both remove the ‘free rider’ problem, and temptation to compromise product quality to appease the advertising model supporting it. Subscription is also needed because AI is far too expensive per prompt to run a pay per click model. This is a major problem for Google – which people use for free.

The market is likely to bifurcate into two segments: Search (Traditional web links) and Creation (Generative AI).

Think about it – if we shift our search habits to ask questions and getting an actual answer, rather than a page of links and options – the pay per click model could die alongside it. Bing might just become the world’s first Premium Search engine – a pay to play for a different kind of search.

The Code Red which was called in through halls of the GooglePlex hasn’t resulted in anything that seems like a worthy response to ChatGPT. After a failed demo last week of the Google AI chatbot Bard, it lost more than $100 billion in market cap. But I also wonder if the market senses that Google has far more to lose even if (and most likely when) it develops a competitive AI product. 58% percent of Alphabet’s revenue comes from search, which is driven by pay per click advertising, which simply can’t survive with generative AI – there are literally no clicks when you get a direct answer. Currently Microsoft only generates 5% of its revenue from Bing pay per click advertising. In real terms, it has a potential ten-fold search revenue upside, with near zero downside all the while potentially adding a new weapon to its already strong enterprise offers of Windows, Office and Azure. AI inside your own laptop, generating answers from your own personal data. That would be super powerful, personally and at an enterprise level.

Just when we thought we thought a one tech firm could never be usurped, a new technology comes along which potentially changes everything.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve

The web is the people

The web has changed a lot since the early 1990’s. if we think back to the dominant behaviour in 10 year blocks it tells us a clear story about how the web is being ‘organised around the people’. Which means that the people are certainly not organising themselves around the technology. It sounds obvious, but it’s worth remembering as we embark on any business project.

the 1990’s – the web was all about browsing. Finding places to go. Websites – the WWW era.

the 2000’s – the web was all about search. The Google god, SEO and ensuring we had page 1.

the 2010’s – the web (so far) is becoming more human. Social interaction & guidance. It is segmenting, grouping & geolocating.

And we can see this in the evidence we find in how the web is being trafficked. According Hitwise web traffic to portals is down -21%, traffic for web search is flat and traffic to social forums is 52% up. Just like life, people don’t want to leave their stream if they can help it. We’d rather stay with the ‘life juice’ that our human relationships provide. Another simple example is what is happening to brands in social forums. Most brands have 10 times the the Facebook fans than they have in monthly visits to the home portal. The best example is Coke, which currently has 33.8 million fans versus 270k visits to its home page per month.

I guess one thing has never changed in business, and that is the best place to take our brand, is where the people already are.

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60 seconds on the web

The world moves fast. When we we’re unconnected the speed of change went unnoticed. Now that we all have digital footprints, we can track all that happens. This amazing and statistically rich infographic is solid reminder of the world we live in. It’s also very cool that most of these business are startups that aren’t even teenagers yet. I’ve pulled out the numbers and got the pic below.

60 seconds on the web:

  • 12,000+ new ads posted on Craigslist
  • 370,000+ minutes of voice calls on Skype
  • 98,000+ tweets
  • 320+ new twitter accounts
  • 100+ new Linkedin accounts
  • 6,600+ photos uploaded to Flickr
  • 50+ wordpress CMS downloads & 125+ plugins
  • 695,000 facebook status updates, 80,000 wall posts and 510,040 comments
  • 1,700 firefox downloads
  • 694,445 google searches
  • 168 million emails sent (of which 92% is spam)
  • 60+ new blogs & 1500+ new blog posts
  • 70+ new domains are registered
  • 600+ new Youtube videos are uploaded. 25+ hours in duration
  • 150+ questions are asked in Question forums
  • 13,000+ iPhone apps are downloaded
  • 20,000 new posts on Tumblr.
  • I new definition added to Urban Dictionary 
  • 1,600+ reads on Scribd.

And here is what it looks like:

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Year in review – Google Style

It’s interesting how technology changes the way we interact. In fact, the way we do a year in review is also changing as Google show here with their Zeitgeist 2010 video. I’m sure there is something in this for everyone, not just retrospectively, but the type of stuff that will matter in our business prospectively.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0QXB5pw2qE]

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