We automatically jump to our personal conclusions on ideas that are shared with us. It’s either good or bad. We can’t help it. But our opinion is somewhat simplified. What we are really doing when we jump to these conclusions is assessing the probability of success. How probable the ideas is to succeed. Good ideas are more probable in our mind.
The interesting thing about probability of success is that ideas that have lower probability are usually the ones with the biggest reward. The trophy ideas. But rather than pigeon holing ideas as good or bad – we consider them in terms of probability. It is only when we do this, that our appetite for risk can be part of the decision making process.