You’re the Movie Star Now

If you think our self-obsessed society couldn’t get any more obsessed with our self image, then hold on tight. We’re about turn this gig up to eleven. While we rarely admit it, everyone’s favourite topic is themselves. Now, if you could imagine for a moment what celebrity culture mashed up with self-obsession might look like, then you’ve taken a sneak peak at what’s next – Everyday Movie Stars.

No, I’m not talking about low-quality, bottom-feeding, Reality TV melodrama. I’m talking about Big Budget Films From Hollywood starring you. The GIF above is from a face-swapping app coming out of China call ZAO. This app utilises deep fake technology to allow anyone to impose their face onto any video – including those with celebrities. Mind you, this is a ‘free’ (for the price of your personal data) app on a smart phone – and it’s quite impressive. Now, imagine what could be done a couple of years from now with improved AI, deep fake algorithmic improvement and even better camera technology. It isn’t hard to see where this is going. You, me and everyone else will be able to slot ourselves into any movie we please. We’ll sit down on a Friday night with our popcorn to watch ourselves in an Oscar-winning performance on Netflix with no noticeable difference. That’s next level narcissism, but I promise you it will happen within the decade.

In the first instance, we’ll probably have to go to the cinema and watch ourselves through augmented glasses and pay a premium for the privilege. With enough imagination, disruptive technology like this always represents new revenue opportunities. Technology has a way of democratising everything – and it’s about to democratise starring in high-budget Hollywood movies. But every shift in tech has losers too. It makes me wonder whether the stars of Hollywood will have to step aside as Joe and Jane Average are patched in via AI. Don’t worry Leo, I think it’s pretty safe to say most people would rather star with you, than replace you. Besides, who we are ‘in the movie’ with is just as important as how good it is.

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Giving Birth to Digital Twins

Imagine trying to repair a car that’s in Sydney – when you’re in Melbourne. Or, worse still repairing a spaceship from earth when it’s 400,000 km away on the dark side of the moon. This is the problem NASA faced 50 years ago with Apollo 13. They fixed it way back then with ‘Mirror Systems’ of the craft they had on earth. In doing so, they unwittingly gave birth to The Digital Twin.

Digital twins will be one of the most important economic technologies of the coming decade.  They’ll affect every single industry and in the long run, the technology will become part of our personal lives too.

Put simply, a digital twin is a virtual replica of any physical thing or process. While the concept is not new, only recently has the implementation been possible and economical, through the emergence of the Internet of Things and advancements in AR and VR . This pairing of the virtual and physical worlds allows analysis of data and monitoring of systems to head off problems before they even occur, prevent downtime, develop new opportunities and even plan for the future by using simulations. But it gets even better than that.

Imagine a large industrial machine for which a digital twin has been developed. Via the twin, anything that goes wrong with physical version will immediately translate back to the virtual version. If any repairs, maintenance or changes are made  to the physical version – the digital twin automatically gets updated. Likewise, eventually we’ll be able to change the physical version without actually touching it – it will all be done via the digital twin. Stop – think about your industry and just imagine the possibilities…they’re almost endless. Shelves in stores, warehouses transport systems, machinery, factories, buildings, supply chains, rail, aviation and eventually, even you.

Yes, you’ll eventually have a digital twin. Advanced cameras, sensors, ultrasound and in-home MRI systems will be inside our smart homes, married up with self quantifying wearables and in body nano-sensors. These will create a a live digital twin of our body which will monitor our well being and know we’re sick long before symptoms arrive, enabling better management of our health and increase longevity of our most important asset – ourselves. It’s gonna get radical. It’s another reason privacy really matters now, while it’s still just sharing photos of coffee!

We can expect every industry over the next decade to start building out the digital twins of everything they own, make, sell do and manage. Every company worth its salt needs to be developing a digital twins – and those who get really good at it – can end up potentially controlling a platform and maybe even being a supplier to their competitors.

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If you haven’t already – please check out the latest Future Sandwich Podcast on the Future of Fashion – it’s rad.

Smart Contact Lenses & the Future of Sport

People seem to be in perpetual fear that technology will take away all the jobs. The bit they always miss is that for every job tech takes away, it invents two. The classic examples of technology inventing new work and new industries are in sport and entertainment. Given it is Football Grand Final week here in Australia – let’s explore where football viewing is heading next.

In the future, watching football, or any sport, will be a much better experience than it is today. Firstly, we’ll have an augmented reality layer on the screen. Not only will you be able to turn on live stats of your favourite players or teams, you’ll also be able to turn them off too. Camera angles won’t dictated by the broadcaster – they’ll be chosen by the viewer via the broadcaster. There will be cameras literally everywhere. There will be super-speed high-definition recording on the goal posts, on the ground and even from the ball so you can watch it sail through the goalposts. You get to choose which replays to watch and when – it will be total director control from the comfort of your sofa. But if you want to get more involved in the game, here is where it gets really cool.

Utilising the latest technology in ‘smart reality contact lenses’, you’ll be able to get the players’ view of the game live while the game is in progress. Log in before the game and you can immerse yourself in exactly how Dusty Martin, Christiano Rinaldo or Russell Wilson experience it – watching the match from their eyes. Of course, you’ll pay for the privilege. It’ll also make sense for players to market themselves to be exciting enough for viewers to log onto, as they’ll be paid per fan log in. But if that’s not close quite enough – then don’t forget to don your football haptic suit. It’s a suit you can wear while watching the game which allows the wearer to to feel in real time the bumps and tussles the players feel on the field. The suit will raise your temperature to match the players’, give you the same palpitations as their heart beats and hear their on-field verbal communications. How is this be possible? These haptic suits can link to players’ uniforms which will be threaded with tiny electronic components to send real-time data across the web using IoT technology. The experience of sport and entertainment in the future will be so real it can almost get dangerous.

But if you think about it – this is the trajectory we’ve been on for a long time. We go from hearing about a football match on radio, to watching a replayed match on a black and white screen, to live HD with slow motion and stats to actually becoming the players. Technology always brings us closer to something far away and allows us to experiences things we otherwise wouldn’t. The opportunities for innovations like this is sport and all forms of entertainment are really limitless.

These possibilities will create jobs, revenue and companies which are yet to exist. The unbelievable part is the technologies already exist to make it happen. My only question is – what are you waiting for?

Ideas need to evolve

Everything in the modern world started as an idea. If it isn’t provided by nature, then at some point it was just an idea. The problem with ideas however, is that once we have a good one, we often forget that we need to build on them. Ideas are a continuum, not an event.

The game of basketball was invented in 1891 by James Naismith in the USA to provide a lower impact sport than Football. It isn’t too dissimilar from what we observe today. A quirky fact, is that in its first iteration fruit baskets where used to catch the ball. Seems like a pretty cool idea to get the first few games underway. But here’s what’s astounding. It wasn’t until 21 years after they started playing that they cut a hole in the baskets so the ball would drop to the floor. And yep, you guessed it, they used to use a ladder to get the balls out. For 21 long years!

There’s lots more of examples just like it: The can opener came 48 years after canned food. Wheels on suitcases weren’t common place until 50 years after the start of air travel. It makes you wonder how many crappy things could be fixed if we just took the original idea that little bit further.

Likewise some ideas become outdated – their time is up and we all move on. This is where we need to be careful. We need to make sure we don’t end up in an industry, or job which ‘as an idea’ is becoming outdated. When ideas become outdated, industries die and careers can too.

At some point we all need to find new ideas, and sometimes we even need to find new towns – especially if the one we are living in is based on an old, outdated industrial idea. Entire towns have been built around the ideas of yesteryear. This time however, we’ve all been given the dignity of choice – we can reinvent ourselves, and even our towns if we choose to. The digital world knows no geography. The biggest challenge with this idea though, is getting people to really believe it.

Maybe we need a big idea. Or just maybe, all we need is a small change, to just cut a hole in the basket and see where our ball lands.

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You’re a true team #Sammatron person coz you read this far and I totally dig it. You know what I’d love? If you checked out the Latest Webisode of Future Sandwich on Digital Twins – our best yet. Heck why not leave a comment and subscribe on Youtube? Thanks.

Never grow your vegetables in someone else’s garden

In an attention economy it is a compelling offer for a website to offer access to an audience of 2.4 billion people (Facebook) or promise that 90% of all internet searches start with you (Google). It would seem as though the only rational choice would be to do business on their platform.

It’s here that the most important business lesson my father taught me comes to mind:

Never grow your vegetables in someones else’s garden.

The advice is exactly as it sounds. Make sure your own and control where you build your assets and revenue streams. If you don’t there is always the risk that the landlord will change the rules without notice and pull up your roots.

In the digital platform economy most people and companies are growing their veggies in other peoples gardens. While it is very clear there’s an upside to this strategy; speed, simplicity, scale. But the downside is obvious and almost always comes to bear. Eventually the platform landlords increase the rent, or kick you out – but only after you’ve tended their garden, or renovated their house.

The weird thing about this, is that it keeps on happening and people and businesses keep on falling for same trick. Let’s go through a little bit of internet platform history to remind ourselves of the downside and even help us with our Future Proof Platform Strategy Development.

The Likes Deceit:

Marky Zuck said; “Yo, brands out there, generate ‘Likes‘ for your brand on our platform, and you’ll be able to have constant contact with the consumers and fans of your brand. Whenever you post an update, they’ll see it, and you’ll have a direct connection.” Then after brands spent many millions of dollars building a brand following on Facebook young Marky changed his mind. He said “Yeah, about that – well, I’ve changed my mind, and now to reach those same people you invested in my ‘Platform’ to connect with – you need to pay me again – to advertise to them. They are no longer going to see your updates in their news feed.”

Boom – just like that – he pulled up their roots.

The Google Page Rank:

Sergey & Larry said; ‘Yo, businesses out there, we are different to Yahoo and other searches engines (there used to be many). We’re all about helping people find exactly what they are after and sending them immediately to you – We are not a portal like Yahoo. Get on board. Then every website in the world optimised for Google. Then Google became so good at everything and so big, they changed their mind. Google is rapidly becoming a portal where they scrape their suppliers information and keep customers in the Google ecosystem – increasingly they don’t send people who search anywhere. They satisfy their needs right on the Google homepage. Just check out the first listing for my searches today for the Snow reports, Weather reports, The AFL ladder and even Flights.

Sorry about that Snow & Weather Channels…

Thanks for the stats AFL…

Introducing the Google travel agency…

Instagram influencers lose their ‘influence‘:

The latest change to remove the likes count on Instagram has hurt so called influences who get paid on this metric. While facebook have claimed that this shift is to improve users well being and remove the stress of expressing themselves, I can’t help but think they don’t want the leakage of advertising revenue going directly to their users instead of the mothership. I wouldn’t be surprised if they launch an Instagram Influencers dashboard with metrics in the back end to control the money flows in the Influencer economy.

So, it seems the only thing we learn from business history, is that few people learn from business history. Just this week Australian TV news channels joined up with the Facebook platform to get their news to a wider audience. This too won’t end well for those providing the content. Contrary to what many people believe, content is not king. Distribution is more powerful than content – always has been, always will be.

How to manage the Platform Predicament?

So, do I practice what I preach? Yes. The most important piece in the Steve Sammartino portfolio is my own webpage and this blog. I own and control it. Around 5000 people read it each week – not a huge amount, but it’s enough to serve my personal business model.

Of course I use other peoples channels; Linkedin, Youtube, Twitter and Instagram – but my primary goal in using them isn’t to grow a business inside it, but rather to grow some seedlings which I’ll transfer into my own garden.

My advice here is simple. Always spread your platform and digital risk. Ensure you take a portfolio approach and invest in your own channels that you control. Always remember that incentives shape commercial behaviour and we should ensure we remember this for our own purposes too.

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Be sure to check out the Latest Ep. of Future Sandwich Now-Soon-Later – we talk about how in the future you won’t own anything – 4 mins of goodness & insight click here. I’d love if you made a comment on Youtube as well.

Cheers, Steve. 

Cars will own themselves

You’ve probably heard about blockchain, but what we really need to understand is how blockchain can be used to fundamentally change what corporations are and how they can be run. Slight nerd warning for this entry – but I think you’re gonna dig it.

During the Age of Discovery, modern corporations were invented to remove personal risk from people taking financial risk. Ever since then, new forms of sovereignty have emerged. Of course, this confuses who owns what and who is actually responsible. There’s even a question mark over who owns your own face these days, as usage and collection of facial recognition data grows. What’s about to arrive is even weirder than that. Very soon, ‘things’, like cars, will be able to own themselves!

What makes this possible?

There are two innovations that make this possible. The first we all know about – self-driving cars. The tech is already here and it works – no explanation required. The second is the technologies most associated with cryptocurrencies: blockchain and Smart Contracts.

To understand where I am going with this, all you need to know is that we now have a technology which enables us to programme the behaviour of ‘things‘ like cars, to behave in certain ways, financially. So instead of people doing deals with other people and transacting – ‘things‘ will be able to do business with other ‘things‘.

We will be able to programme ‘things’ to interact with the world independently. For example, a self-drive car could be programmed to recharge or refuel with petrol when required, and then transact with another robot programmed to extract the requisite funds from the cars’ virtual wallet.

How will we do this?

In the near future we’ll have anInternet of Things’ kind of trading net. Let’s call it the ‘Tradenet‘. This Tradenet will be a bit like the internet as we know it, but instead of having virtual web addresses we visit online, it will have the actual physical location of real ‘things’ like cars registered to it. It will be an internet where we trade the usage of ‘things’. The Tradenet won’t be for all forms of commerce – only for ‘things’ that are commoditised so we know exactly what we will be getting. Every ‘thing’ on the Tradenet will be self-aware: what it is, where it is, how it’s used, who wants it, what its fees are, how it will advertise itself, and how to make contracts with other people and things, and essentially do contracts or ‘jobs’. ‘Things’ on the Tradenet will be self-employed. This will be a separate kind of internet that sits to the side of what we have now.

The Autonomous Economic Agent

A car on the Tradenet will become an autonomous economic agent. It will have an inbuilt set of instructions in its code which not only tells it what to do, but enables it to learn from its environment, constantly upgrading its knowledge and decision criteria.

So what might a Tradenet car do?

Firstly, it will be ‘born‘ into the market when someone buys it and puts it out to work. This could be a person, a corporation, a foundation, or even a charity. The car comes with a ‘mind of its own’. Even if two models of the same car are put on the market, after a time, like twins, they’ll evolve and behave differently, because of how they have learned to interact with the market.

The car will bid for work on the Tradenet, with the objective of, let’s say in this case, maximising profit. It will find the best routes to maximise profit, know where position iteself and the optimal times to get the most rides. When demand is low for people passengers, it will look for package deliveries or other forms of paid transport the Tradenet needs.

At night, it will go on the Tradenet and look for the cheapest car park to stop in overnight when demand is low. It then hits the road again early in the morning, hoping for long airport trips. It knows when it needs to be serviced and cleaned, as well as where and when it is least costly to perform these tasks.

During school holidays when the city becomes quiet, it drives itself up to the Gold Coast to do business with holiday makers. Around Christmas time when the the trucking industry has excess demand, it does trips between major cities hauling gifts for ecommerce purchases overnight. Zipping from Melbourne to Sydney overnight, the car then works in Sydney the next day… before making the overnight trip back to Melbourne the following day.

The car trades based on what it learns about the best routes with other Autonomous Economic Agent cars – for a fee!

Here’s the real kicker – when the car itself is too busy and market conditions are just right – it gives birth. It uses its excess profits to purchase a new baby car from the Tradenet. It buys the right car for the market, which may well be a different model to itself. When the new baby car arrives, the parent car downloads all that it knows to the child and puts it out to work. Of course, it teaches the child to learn from the mistakes the parent has made and hopes it does even better financially. The cars which learn the most will make the most money, as a quasi-autonomous corporate family. The more babies a car has, the more successful it is.

As the original car ages, it might even put itself into retirement. Or worse, its ‘kids’ collude to send it to the scrapyard as it is dragging down the car family’s profit. 🙁

Next Generation Corporations

Yes, our next iteration of the corporation is ‘things’ that act just like companies do, except there are no people involved in running them. People might have shares in Autonomous Economic Agents and as soon as self-drive cars are affordable and the regulations allow, this ownership model will follow.

The only question is, which entrepreneur will be first to the write the code to make it a reality?

 

The Future of Truth

Technology is on a progressive path to let us fake just about anything. Photoshopped faces, Instagram filters, fake friends and fakes news which is often very difficult to distinguish from the real thing. Like most things tech enables, fake isn’t new – it just scales better than ever.

The internet has a very long memory. In our digital lives, nothing we do ever really disappears. There is no ‘delete’ button. The truth is we’re all wading through a mountain of digital debris which has tracked our lives for the past decade or so. The problem with this debris, however, is that it can be used to build different versions of events. It can retell the story of what we said and what we did in ways which seem indisputable to the human eye.

In an era of Deep Fakes, the  last forms of provable truths evaporate right in front of our eyes – video so realistic we can’t tell whether the global leader actually said that at a news conference or whether that celebrity really did make a porn movie. The scariest part? It’s all possible via open source software where a few random pictures and a voice sample can be concocted to create such fakes. This could be life-changing for the victims. They’re already for sale right here for a few hundred dollars. We can even take a single image and make semi-plausible video today as shown in the gif above! Imagine how even more advanced this technology will be in a year or so.

Weirdly, there is some good news. As deep fake videos become so easy to make and so ubiquitous in our digital world, we’ll start to distrust everything we see online. When this happens, what we’ll be only be left with is what happened when we were in the room ourselves. Or we’ll just have to ask the person what actually happened and what was actually said. We will be swimming so deep in fake everything in the coming years that the truth will again morph into something irrevocably human. No digital copy or version of anything will suffice. Analogue truth might just make a comeback.

Even so, that too might also be temporary. The world as we know it moves in technological tides, so the next iteration of deeper fakes will be truly mind-blowing.

Let’s consider something a little crazy. What happens when we can make robots that are indistinguishable from humans? Robots with soft-exo bodies, natural sounding voices and smooth movements. Once that becomes possible – and it will – it’s only a matter of time before we have a world in which fake humans leave the screen and enter the street. Then we’ll have to ask ourselves some weird questions like:

Did Steve really come to work today or did he send his robot proxy?

Was the nice girl I met at the event and exchanged numbers with real or humanoid?

Was the Olympic runner who won the 100m dash real or a lab-built improved replica of the human runner?

It’s only just beginning.

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