Do this before you launch a startup

I am often asked by budding entrepreneurs if their new startup idea is any good. But rather than do that, I tell them how to check it themselves. This is what I tell them:

It doesn’t matter what the business idea is – the discovery process to determine its validity is always the same. It is a simple set of questions to answer. They need to be answered before anything is made or a dollar is spent. Firstly:

Is anyone already doing it?

You’d be surprised how shallowly people dig to find out the answer to this question.

If yes:

  • Why didn’t you know about it already? Are you in the target market? Is it poor promotion or just that the market for this is actually quite small?
  • Is the business doing well or poorly?
  • If it is doing well, do you think you could compete and do it better in some way? If the answer to this is no, stop here.
  • If it is doing poorly, find out why. Is it poor execution, underfunded, poor location, no scale, bad business model, too early for the market or for other reasons? Or is the idea just not as good as it seems?

If your idea is already out there and it isn’t setting the world on fire, it’s probably a warning sign.

If no:

  • Have people tried it before and failed? Who, when and why?
  • Have people decided the idea isn’t any good or that it doesn’t have a good way to earn money doing it?
  • Or is it that your idea is actually quite novel, exciting and worth pursuing? If so, only then is it Go Time.

While this list isn’t particularly long (it certainly isn’t exhaustive), it’s a human and business-centric model of understanding demand, opportunity and complexity. It’s a model which forces us to think through a business supply chain. It’s a reality check.

Go Time: The worst mistake we can make when starting a business is actually by starting a business. Instead we need to run some experiments first – find the quickest, cheapest way possible to test if your idea solves the problem of your target customers. It doesn’t require a business or an infrastructure, just a hacked together solution that replicates the potential of the larger idea. A test. At this point you need to ask for money from the customers you seek. Asking for the order – real money – is a kind of commercial truth serum. By doing this, we often discover what people say they’ll do and what they actually will do are two very different things.

If all of this seems a little too arduous for a new business idea, then just remember it’s far more arduous going into a venture that was dead before it was even born.

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If you haven’t already – be sure to check out Future Sandwich Now-Soon-Later

The Secret Innovation Budget

Research & Development and Marketing traditionally lived in different worlds. R&D for innovation purpose happened in secret, in the lab, while Marketing was mostly just advertising. The advertising itself? Well, that was generally about convincing people to buy what the company could already make. It was rarely about the future and what the brand might become. Smart companies however, have merged these two disciplines. It’s a ‘trick’ any firm big enough to have a marketing budget might want to embrace. Yes, the marketing budget should really be an innovation fund, and vice versa.

In times of great change we idolise the new. The wonder created by what was once the realm of science fiction, are todays most shareable artefacts online. Cool stuff we see for the first time like an Amazon drone delivery, a Google driverless car, or an Uber air taxi get viewed millions of times, voluntarily, without media expense. These companies are telling the market, we are inventing the future. If you’re a large corporation today, and you’re not inventing the future, during such a revolutionary time, then you just might be inventing your own demise.

But here’s a few questions worth asking:

  • When was the last time you had something delivered via drone?
  • When was the last time you took a ride in a driverless vehicle?
  • When did you last hover above traffic in your air taxi?

If you’re like most people, you haven’t, yet. That’s not to say that these things aren’t on the way – they certainly are, but in truth these companies have purposely talked up the technology many years before any of them were actually functional, let alone a commercial reality. This is where the trick part comes in. The time lag between the concept phase and the reality of these innovations being in market is a great brand building exercise for the firms smart enough to do it. Cleverly, their R&D has become their advertising. They’ve earned free global media attention and further ensconced themselves as innovators.

The perception this creates in the market isn’t just nice to have. It can also have a massive economic impact on the firms financially. Just compare the unit sales, price earnings ratios and valuations of firms serving the same set of customers:

Automobiles:

  • Tesla makes 245k cars per year, and has a PE ratio of infinity (no dividends yet), and a market cap of $48 billion.
  • Ford makes a 7.9m cars per year (one per 4 seconds) and has a PE ratio of 9.3x, and a market cap of $34 billion.

The market has clearly voted on how it values innovation.

So could an old world industrial company use innovation as a brand communication tool? Could they be seen as on the cutting edge of technology and reap the valuation benefits? Of course.

But it requires some shifts in attitude.

It requires the firm to set lofty goals in their innovation efforts, it can’t be incremental. They also need the courage to share these innovation dreams with the market and own them publicly. It also requires the vision to shift investment from traditional marketing and advertising budgets into innovation arenas and moonshot product developments. All of which can not only become an exponential product improvement, but be an effective form of advertising in the interim. But mostly, it will send a strong message and provide a new confidence to the firms customers, employees and investors that they have a chance at inventing the future too.

Digital Nostalgia

Digital technology has a wonderful way of allowing that which was lost to re-emerge. Before we had the ability to make and publish whatever we please, tastemakers always focused on the next new thing, obsessed with selling to the ‘youth market’. Yesterday’s ideas would make their way from the shelf to the bargain bin, and finally be consigned to our fond, yet fuzzy, memories. Nostalgia used to be a few dusty ideas in sepia confined to an antique shop. Fast forward to 2018 and nostalgia is ironically, very now. It’s attracting big bucks from the people who have it, and it might just be the biggest marketing opportunity for people and brands with the wisdom to see it.

We entering an era I call the Dichotomy-Economy. Many markets are splitting into two clear juxtaposed segments: Fast food and Slow food, Discounters and Luxury brands, and to the growing list we we can add Neo and Nostalgia. Never have we seen such a rapid uptake of new technology in history. While we love it, it’s an exhausting, never-ending journey just to keep up. That’s where nostalgia comes in. It’s the metaphorical roadside rest area in an era of exponential change. The panacea we need to a future moving at light speed.

Ask anyone older than the ‘Snapchat demographic’ and it’s a world of old VHS tapes uploaded to YouTube, digital pictures of analogue photos scanned onto social media and Google searches of that thing you loved growing up that you just have to find now. There’s nothing grownups (as my kids call us) love more than buying the things we grew up with or the fantasy toys we could never afford. Notable nostalgia plays from the mainstream, including:

And if they aren’t cool enough for you, check out my 80’s TV, a simulated TV channel taking shows uploaded from the web and creating an actual 80’s TV channel with news sport, advertisements you name it. Just choose your year and off you go.

My friend Scott has tapped into the cult of 1970s and 1980s Aussie Rules footy by running an art-meets-ecommerce project – a limited edition run of old style lace-up footy jumpers. And it’s booming.

This is exactly the point. The reason nostalgia can make such a big comeback (pun intended) is that we have the tools at our disposal to promote something, we can outsource manufacturing and a connected world means that the niche can often survive with thin, yet global distribution.

If you’re a company, brand or individual looking for a high margin future, then maybe it’s the past you should look into.

Equity, tokens and working for free

Ten years ago I used to get offered equity to work for free, now I get offered tokens in upcoming ICO’s. I used to say yes to many equity offers if:

(A) I liked the project

(B) I liked the people

As you can imagine most of these projects never went anywhere. I’ve now got many 1% shares in imaginary companies that no longer exist. I’d hazard to guess many ICOs are also going to end up as Imaginary Cash Only.  So should you accept such an offer from some cool people? Well, it really depends on why you’re doing the work. If it’s for experience, then why not? Think of it as part of your ‘free education’ in industry XYZ. Many of the most valuable things I’ve done in my career started out in the free zone.

My approach today however, is a little different. Here’s how a decide whether or not to work for non cash payment:

If I wouldn’t invest my own money in that startup or activity, then I wont accept non-cash payments. Why – because they are essentially the same thing. We are handing over money to the project or company.

Another thing worth considering is why the person on the other side of the equation would give away equity for labour. If they truly believe in their project, why are they so eager to give up equity? It’s certainly worth asking them that question.

In my experience smart entrepreneurs ask for money, not free labour. Especially when money follows good ideas, strong teams, and that managing free labour adds friction and complexity to the project or startup itself.

Your work is worth more than you think, Steve. 

What unions should do to survive the future

In a largely information-based work society, it’s easy to forget the important role unions have played in creating a civilised society. Things we take for granted like reasonable work hours, fair wages, workplace health and safety and even low cost retirement superannuation programmes. I’ve never been a part of a union – my work has typically never had union representation. But I’m starting to wonder if they’ll even exist in the near future. These numbers are very telling:

Union membership in steep decline – less than 15% of workforce currently:

  • In 1960 it was 60%
  • In 1980 it was 43%
  • In 1990 it was 34%
  • In 2000 it was 24%
  • In 2010 it was 18%.
In the private sector only 10% of workers are members of a union and with manual labour declining due to automation, it is difficult to see a future for unions. That is of course, unless they start doing what all of us have to do: reinvent themselves and pivot to providing something non-union workers will need in the future.
The shift unions are missing:
Unions should start focusing on new types of labour – information workers and the gig economy. One of the biggest changes about to occur in our economy is the shift from employee to freelancer. Freelance work is no longer the stuff of the creative class, those who do weird and wonderful things no company needs day to day. We’ll all be doing freelance work in the near future. As employment ‘friction’ is rapidly being removed by technology, work will become more fluid. The growth of platforms to both display our credentials and help us connect with each other for projects is creating an inevitable and new work structure. This structure and the efficiencies it allows may well out perform the 200 year dominance of the firm. The latest ABS data shows that 30% of adults did some freelance work this month. And it is predicted that by 2027 there will be more independent workers than PAYG wages earners in Australia. It’s here we need to remember that back in the 1600s, fewer than 1% of workers the world over were employees – we all worked for ourselves. Employment may well be a temporary 200 year blip in the evolution of work as we return to the way it always was, as ‘the factory’ disappears from our lives.
The real opportunity for unions isn’t just to come in to negotiate conditions and wages for people. In all probability our market economy doesn’t want or need that. Instead, the opportunity for unions exists in becoming a quasi HR department for independent and freelance workers, to manage many of those things that we once had taken care of by employers when working inside a large corporation. They need to become a career partner in helping their members become more valuable. Demanding wage alone increases will only expedite the penetration of A.I and remove many of the members altogether.
Here’s some areas unions must address if they want to even exist 20 years from now:
The Gig Economy:
Sure, it used to be easier to gather the workers outside of a giant factory and convince them that they could better leverage their power to negotiate for better working conditions as a group, rather than as individuals. This can surely be done in a gig economy too. If Uber can aggregate labour, so can unions. They just need to modernise their recruiting techniques in the same way the gig economy startups have.
The Quasi HR department:
In the emerging gig and freelance economy, one of the major complaints is the benefits they lose as ‘non employees’. Think annual leave, safety regulations, work conditions, training and superannuation being organised on their behalf. Unions can fill this void. It may not be a traditional role for unions, but it is a protective and guiding role – and within the realms of what unions ought to do. It’s also possible that they could influence legislation for this purpose. Unions could teach freelancers how to price themselves (freelance workers are generally worth more than they think and undersell themselves by pricing too low). They could also invoice on behalf of freelancers to ensure they’re paid quickly. Freelancers could allocate to unions some of their income to organise their training, superannuation, tax and insurance. This would create a ‘float’ of money the unions could use to train and future-proof workers. Unions could create competitive digital products against the tech giants (Uber?) that their gig economy workers could own. Why give Uber 20% of every ride when gig economy workers could create a digital commons version of it they own?  Blockchain, anyone?
Re-define Blue Collar:
Part of unions problem is their myopic view of labour which requires their representation, especially with white collar labour. In this arena unions generally only represent publicly funded or regulated industries including education and health sectors. They barely exist in media, finance, technology and other professional services. They should closely look at retail, call centres, and entry level corporate work. Salary workers have become the new Blue Collar – we could frame them as the White Collar Underclass. Most salary workers get paid for 40 hours of labour, yet work well over 60 hours per week. Examples of this include non-commission sales roles, administration, interns and pretty much all office-based entry-level work, even for university graduates.
Data As Labour:
And finally the biggest opportunity of all – data as labour. If you’re on the internet, you’re creating data. And that data, even if you see it as leisure or entertainment, it’s a form of labour. It’s work that you have done and it has significant value. It has created the fastest growing corporations in history, and now represents 5 of the 10 biggest companies in the USA. Anyone creating data is working for free and creating largesse for a few tech titans. Starting to gain traction is a movement whose philosophy is: “Our data is our labour and it shouldn’t be taken for free.” We’ve all been tricked into giving value away in exchange for access to human connection. If there was every an opportunity to redefine a market – then this is it.
In closing, unions need a startup mentality – find and disrupt new industries so they can help workers maximise the value they create. If they don’t, then it’ll just be another tragedy of the commons. I recently discussed this on radio – you can listen to it here.
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If you want to future-proof yourself  – then you might want to check out my latest book: The Lessons School Forgot.

Our future depends on showing up

Turning up is way more important for our future than we’d imagine. Maybe it’s 50% of success, maybe much, much more. But showing up isn’t just about attending that event, the gym or night school, it’s really about how it impacts the mind. It gives us a chance to experience what progress feels like and then goes about inventing the belief that we can grow. We realise small consistent investments in ourself really add up over time, especially when most people fail to make any effort. The reason that it creates such an advantage is that is that while every one can, very few people will. Maybe that’s why we call it will power?

Showing up is making uncomfortable phone calls to pitch your ideas.

Showing up is reading the book on that new technology impacting your industry.

Showing up is learning the new skills long after you graduated from school.

Showing up is working that project nights and weekends while others watch cooking shows.

Showing up is supporting the projects of those you care about, helping them.

Showing up is doing more preparation than you need, just in case.

Showing up is doing that thing we know we should…

But mostly showing up teaches us that raw talent matters far less than doing the work. Showing up proves to ourselves that effort goes further than talent and miracles. If there’s ever been a time to show up, it’s when the world changes rapidly and everything is up grabs, like now.

Keep moving, Steve. 

Why E-Sports might just help your career

“Hey kids, get out inside out of that fresh air, stop exercising and start playing some video games why don’t you!” – Said no parent ever, maybe they should?

On my weekly radio spot this week I spoke about video games, or E-sports as it’s known. I proposed that gaming is a valid use of kids spare time, and could even help them in later life and their careers. My mum, with good intentions hated my going to the ‘dodgy’ video arcade, and later despised the time I spent gaming on my TRS-80 (yes my dude was a block, but I have a good imagination). But, it did lead me to a lifetime of interest in technology, and now that’s become a career. Occasionally we need to open our minds enough so that we can reframe an outdated perception. And maybe even back it up with some facts, so here’s a few about the E-Sports industry worth considering:

Economics: Video game sales (think hardware and software) is more than twice the size of the movie industry world wide. it will near $130 billion in 2018. The Pro E-Sports industry is estimated to be $1.5 billion this year with over $100 million in prize money, and has over 385 million annual viewers. Yes – people watching people play video games – both on line and live. In fact, the biggest ever crowd at a video game tournament was 52,000 people in a stadium in Germany.

Careers: There is currently 13,000+ professional E-Sports players. While the average annual pay packet is relatively small at $4500 a year, the top player earnings are right up there with with more traditional sports. Kuro Takhasomi took home a handy $3.5m last year and more than 200 players earned more the $100,000 for playing ‘games’.

Skills: Like any sport, there’s a natural hierarchy and not all hopefuls will make it to the elite level. Though, there is something different about E-Sports – they prepare us for the emerging world in ways few traditional sports can. Studies show they are good for rapid problem solving, brain speed, memory, algorithm awareness and management and even fine motor skills. They’ve been used to train soldiers, pilots, surgeons and it’s fair to assume their use in pre-career simulations, will continue and even extend through the use of VR and AR.

In any case, it does seem that the correlation between gamers and a desire to learn the underpinning technology is high. Surely this gives gamers an advantage in future proof technological career paths.

Social: When I mention to people I regard E-Sports as a ‘real sport’ it is often met with scepticism, and even ridicule. At which time I often remind people how ridiculous grown ups chasing dead animals filled with air to kick them through big white sticks is. All games are silly by definition, and they often take generations on the fringe before they enter mainstream culture. But after a couple of generations of computer games, I feel we are on the precipice of that shift right now. The spectator side of the industry is real, and will have wider career and industry opportunities than many people imagine.

So is it a sport? Well that depends on how you view things. Here’s one definition of Sport: “An activity involving physical exertion or skill in which an individual or team compete against one another or for others entertainment.” It fits as far as I can tell. And if you’re worried it will make society more obese than it already is, don’t fret too much. It’s only a matter of time before these games involve players in haptic suits running around on fields shooting up people somewhere on the other side of the globe.

Click here to here me discuss Gaming on 3Aw with Tom Elliot. And be sure to tune in at 4.30pm every Monday for your Future Fix.

Go play, Steve.