Orwell wasn’t wrong, just early

I’m pretty sure you’ve heard of George Orwell, but have you heard of Roy Amara? Amara was a scientist and futurist who made an interesting observation regarding technology.

Roy Amara

Amara’s law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”

Turns out George was right, but the information kept on us is almost infinite and more extreme than he had imagined. There’s a number of other technologies bubbling along which some people might be questioning, the IoT and 3D printing come to mind. But when you 3D print a smart phone in 20 years, never pay for energy in 5 years and do something I can’t even image in 10 – you can remember this post.

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