I found myself, wandering around the CBD of Melbourne Australia searching for gifts. I justified the spending spree with the ‘creating employment’ argument.
I found it particularly insightful. The most dramatic social trends can be evidenced during the Christmas shopping rush. It’s the only time in the year when the majority of the population have their consumer behavi
our on display simultaneously. The sheer weight of the numbers in most retail districts ensure a ‘robust sample’ of behavior.
Here’s some things I noticed:
Music Shops. Absolute ghost towns. No surprises here. An idea for all you record companies: Take a class action against the world! A prediction for free: the DVD sales keeping your boat afloat are about to disappear into the ether also.
Gaming Shop EB. Packed like a music shop would’ve been in 1986. Of which 80% of the sales were gong to PSP, not Xbox, not Nintendo, not PC games. How has their hardware delivery shielded them from zero cost digital duplication and how long will it last?
Surf Shops. The age of the hodad has never been stronger. It is all a matter of strong and continued brand investment. (non of which has ever been on TV) This industry was born in the early 70’s and really hit it’s straps in the mid 80’s. Beach Culture, just like Music Culture hasn’t gone away, they’ve just adapted and innovated better. Once upon a time a surf shop had Surfboards, Wetsuits, Boardshorts and a few surf branded t-shirts. It was a manly domain. Now the store was 80% teenage girls. The power of vicarious living. Today a surf shop ranges, shoes, $20 rubber thongs, Bikini’s, every clothing item imaginable, DVD’s, all surf equipment, watches, jewelry, school stationary, wallets, luggage…I have to stop. Generation Y simply can’t get enough of this surf branded fair. Chances are they are spending 4 weeks McDonalds income on their friends and families for Christmas presents. Charging ultra premiums for textiles made in China must mean shares in Quiksilver and Billabong have a way to go yet.
Myer Department Store: Miss shop was dead (they all must be at the surfshop). In fact the only really busy area in Myer was the electrical and beauty departments. Beauty and fragrance was really happening. They even had a DJ doing some mash ups and make up artists helping their customers live the dream. Great Theatre, no discounts.
Entertainment: The mall was filled with buskers all of which had great crowds. The need to be entertained won’t ever go away. The smart retailers know this and were using this insight as a part of their retail offer (see above)
Coffee: It was over 30 degrees, but everyone still wanted their latte. Lesson: seasonality can be overcome with great marketing.
Borders Books. Books are not just about reading. A book is a trophy, that sits nicely on a coffee table as a sign of intellect. The line was 50 people deep. (I counted). The physical element of book retailing can still be an advantage retailers. Many consumers don’t know what the are looking for until they see it. it’s hard to d this on line. Borders also had a really smart offer providing a $10 gift voucher for spending over $50, but it has to be used in January.
Credit: Everyone was using their credit cards. I hardly saw a dollar note the entire day. Which could mean a number of things. They could be using their 55 days interest free. Perhaps they are spending beyond their capacity. It is my estimation that many will worry about the credit card bill when it arrives. This was especially prevalent with the Want It Now Generation Y. How many bank shares do you own?
I have to stop or this blog entry will never end….
We must ask ourselves: Which of these insights can be used for investing and start up purposes?
By the way, all the things we noticed are yet to be reported in any financial newspapers, or research reports just yet. Get out there and go trend watching.