How to make the Gig Economy ‘Work’

Over 100 million workers around the world are hoping even harder than their peers that they don’t come down with coronavirus COVID-19. Who are they? Those working in the gig economy, where benefits like sick leave are something they can’t rely on. The worst part? If they do get sick, they might just have to keep on working, which puts everyone else’s health at risk. It’s about time we got innovative to improve the gig economy for everyone.

Let’s be clear on one thing – the gig economy isn’t going away. It is not a short-term aberration, but a long-term shift. Currently, the number of gig workers is growing more than 30% every year.

In the past, the reason we became employees was because the place of work was centralised – all the tools to do our jobs resided only in factories and offices. It was also difficult to find, train, ratify the skills and organise the work of people who weren’t under a company’s direct control. But the trajectory of technology today tells us that this is no longer the case. The traditional employee is no longer required and lower paid gig work is just the start of a freelance future for all. Sure, companies will still need to get things done, but they don’t need employees. The latest ABS data shows that 30% of adults participated in freelance work this month. Additionally, it is predicted that by 2027 there will be more independent workers than PAYG wage earners in Australia.

At the dawn of the industrial revolution, the major tools of production (think factory), became centralised. Before this, the large majority of labour was undertaken independently, either on the farm or as a craftsman. When we industrialised, people came to the cities en masse to partake in higher-paid work for large firms. To remove the friction of finding and training every week, workers became employees of the firm. This quasi-permanent engagement between the parties extended into office work as we entered the information phase of industrialised economies.

Fast forward to today and the friction of labour is being removed rapidly. The technology in our homes is as good as any office. Most forms of information work can be done anywhere, with NASA-powered computers in our pockets. Disparate labour can be organised around the world too, in real time. In the future, I believe that most people won’t be employees, but ‘digital craftspeople’ who hire their time to one, or many organisations. I’ll go as far to predict that within 50 years we’ll see global multi-billion dollar corporations with exactly zero employees. All their work will be performed by independent contractors – Uber on steroids. This will happen not only because it’s logistically possible, but far more profitable.

Problem: The current situation for gig workers is sub-optimal. Workers fought hard over decades for access to safe workplaces and fair remuneration, but these rights are now being eviscerated. Benefits like annual leave, sick leave, training, OH&S standards and superannuation have conveniently become the responsibility of the worker. This is a problem when we have economic shocks like the coronavirus. We don’t need to ban gig work, or make gig workers employees. We can be smarter than that. All we need is structural innovation and we only need look as far as superannuation to find an answer.

Gig Worker 2.0

It wasn’t until 1983 that employee superannuation contributions started with The Accord and became mandatory in Australia in 1992. Prior to that, superannuation was a benefit bestowed on only the fortunate few and workers with strong unions. What we need now is a new kind of gig worker benefit scheme akin to superannuation. This benefit scheme would provide a form of security for gig economy workers. For example, a simple percentage loading on labour fees could go into a fund to create employee-style benefits (annual leave, sick leave, superannuation etc) for gig workers, paid for by the firms hiring gig labour. Gig workers currently forego these benefits many of us take for granted. This way, gig workers can maintain their living standards and dignity while they are making their economic contribution . Governments the world over would do well to implement such a policy.

While the numbers would need to be verified, I would estimate the gig worker loading should be around 20%. While that might sound quite high, studies show that employee on-costs are anywhere up to 50% of their wages. If firms employing flexible labour say it won’t work – then I’d argue they don’t have a sustainable business model in the first instance.

The fund would need be in the worker’s name and ported wherever they perform gig labour. If we managed to pass such a law, our economy would be better placed to cope with the long-term shift to independent labour gigs, remain flexible, but also be able to cope with periodic shocks to the economy. It could also invent an entire industry for Australia – one whose model could actually become an export.

A New Industry

At some point in the near future, a smart government somewhere will implement such a policy (which is better than forcing gig workers to become employees), and lead the world in inventing an entirely new industry. In Australia alone, our Superannuation industry (which was spawned by the union movement) is now a $2.7 trillion industry and the 4th largest pension fund asset holder in the world. We’ve led the way. If we are first to set up this kind of a policy structure, we could export the financial management model of gig support the world over. However, this takes foresight, courage and political will.

Unions & The Gig Economy

Union memberships are in steep decline – it’s now less than 15% of workforce. In 1960, it was 60%.  It is difficult to see a future for unions. unless they reinvent themselves and pivot to offering non-union workers something they need in the future. Fighting for gig economy workers is the perfect innovation staring the union movement in the face. Unions should start focusing on representing new types of labour, who have powerful forces (like Big Tech) exploiting them. Enter, gig workers. Fuelling the erosion of the union member base is a myopic view of the type of labour that fits their model. They have an opportunity right now to go beyond traditional blue collar work, start a movement and become relevant again. Instead of using standover tactics to create profit share and inordinate wage rises, they can focus on what gave them relevance over 100 years ago, and that is fighting for fairness and a sustainable workforce.

If there’s anything we need in our economy, it is regulatory innovation to match the rapidly changing technology driven labour market. Yes – governments need to innovate too.

I spoke about this topic on ABC radio yesterday – click here to listen.

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The Economics of Automation & You

It’s true that many tasks people do in their work will be automated in the future. It’s also true that the only reason for a company to it is to save money.  So where does the saved money, and do the displaced people go?

Firstly, we know what happens, because it has already happened a number of times. It happened when agriculture was automated. Prior to the industrial revolution the vast majority of people worked directly in agriculture, and now it is less than 5% in developed economies. We also saw it when production line labour was replaced with robotics. And even though this time the displacement will involve intellectual labour, the pattern will remain unchanged, and it goes like this…

  1. Company replaces workers and reduces operating costs.
  2. Company must then decide where to distribute cost savings – options include;
  • Increase profit margins
  • Reduce prices and sell more
  • Reinvest funds for growth (New Product / Distribution / Promotion / R &D)

All of which must be considered in a competitive context. Yet, invariably the same thing happens again, and again and again. The new margin gets competed away. Competitors respond and also reduce price to maintain market share either by adopting similar technology or cutting margins. (Monopoly markets and IP protected innovations being rare exceptions)

Car prices are a good example. In the past 30 years due to automation prices have dropped radically. Comparing the same General Motors model large sedan in Australia gives us the following cost in real terms:

  • Price when new – 1998 = $25,077 (96% of average annual income)*
  • Price when new – 2018 = $35,990 (42% of average annual income)*
*Aust Bureau of Statistics.

Mind you, cars today are infinitely better than models from 30 years ago.

Why does this matter for workers? It matters because it tells us that while automation reduces the need for labour, it also reduces the cost of goods. Which means that consumers get to allocate ‘savings’ on other goods and services – often in entirely new markets creating a substitution effect. And this, is the art of being future proof:

We must also substitute ourselves.

To stay relevant, we need to change places like the money does. It may mean we need to develop new skills, it may mean we have to change location, organisationally and even physically. Work will change, work will move, but it will never disappear. To be sure, the transition for the ‘automated’ will be uncomfortable. Just like it was uncomfortable for the 80% of people who could not read in 1800. But here is what would be more uncomfortable:

If we had no possibility to reinvent ourselves. If the worlds education resources weren’t mere keystrokes away and mostly free. If you couldn’t read or write (the most complex intellectual task humans have ever developed – which proves we’re smart enough to learn new skills with effort).

But we know that these things aren’t true. Reading this is evidence in itself that we all have access to the tools we need to cut new ground. The only real question is if we’ll make the investment in ourselves to become what tomorrows market will probably demand.

Why machines can never replace humans

The internet is terrific at serving up things we didn’t know we needed, enjoy and very often love. That’s why there are currently 72 million cat videos of youtube. I happened upon one such youtube channel recently – Dude Perfect. For the uninitiated, it’s a channel which shows a bunch of people doing ‘trick shots’ – like getting a basketball through a hoop from a bounce off a 10 story building – I’m betting they’ve done this, thought I haven’t checked.

Their latest version shows a Super Bowl champion Drew Brees doing amazing trick shots with a football. You can watch it here. It is mind blowing.

There are machines that can already do many of the shots they do with a 99.9% success rate. In a few short years some soft robots will be able to beat these guys at every shot they take. But here’s the thing – we’ll still watch their channel. And for one simple reason – it’s amazing because a human is doing it.

The future of what we get paid for in many realms wont be because it is the most efficient way it can be done, but because people are doing it. As a society we are interested in what we can achieve, even if a car can go faster than a human, we all still know who Usain Bolt is. There’s a good chance a lot of things robots will be able to do, the highest paid versions of it will be those with human imperfections as part of the reason we buy. Humanity is where the future of work and money lives. Who knows, maybe intelligent robots will pay to watch humans play sport one day?

Artificial Intelligence isn’t about replacing us, but outsourcing the things we’d rather not do. Once artificial intelligence takes away the mundane, the inhumane and repetitive, we can get on with the creative, the interactive and the enjoyable.

Come and hang with me on June 20th – I’ll be giving you the human live version of my new book – I’ll be wearing my heart on my sleeve in all I say, some of which will include truths my publisher wouldn’t put in print or the screen…

Book your seat here – see you there.

Stay rad, Steve.

"What’s exercise?" a question about the future of work

Let’s imagine you somehow got your hands on a working DeLorean – and took a trip back to the not-too-distant past of the pre-industrialised world. And when you arrived, you sat down with someone and asked them this simple question over a semi-dirty glass of water at their kitchen table.

Future Human: Did you exercise today?

Pre-Industrial Human: What’s exercise?

Future Human: It’s when you move your body around and lift things to stay fit.

Pre-Industrial Human: Oh, you mean work – is exercise a new word for work? Yeah, sure, I worked today. All day, in fact. All of the daylight hours. I’m very tired.

Future Human: No no, not work…I mean extra movement of your body before or after you’ve finished work.

Pre-Industrial Human: Why would I do that? I’m exhausted. I already did that all day.

Future Human: The reason is that you want to stay fit.

Pre-Industrial Human: What’s staying fit?

Future Human: It means you keep your body in good shape – like ‘thin’, and you remain strong.

Pre-Industrial Human: But my work already does that, and everyone I know is very thin, although I’ve heard stories about the King having a big belly.

Future Human: Well, in the future people do exercise, because they mostly sit down while working, and get fat from eating too much food.

Pre- Industrial Human: Wow, they sit down at work! How much food do they have?

Future Human: As much as they want, all kinds from all over the world…. but let’s focus here…

Pre-Industrial Human: So where do they do this…exercise thing?

Future Human: In gyms, mostly, or running or swimming. Or play sports.

Pre-Industrial Human: What’s a gym? 

Future Human: A place with weights, where you lift them, or do classes like spin or aerobics. 

Pre-Industrial Human: Oh, where do they put these heavy things they lift? Who are they lifting them for?

Future Human: Oh, the weights are specially made, only for lifting. People just lift them up and down. And the classes teach people how to move their bodies…

Pre-Industrial Human: Wow, this sure sounds strange…

Future Human: Strange, well you should see how they look in their spandex…

Pre-Industrial Human: What’s spandex…

Pre Industrial revolution dirty water

Of course this conversation could go on forever, in many directions and fill the void of the Middle Ages pre-industrial mind with all kinds of physical automation and wizardry of tomorrow. The Exercise Industry, and any flow of money, work and exchange of value associated with it, is of course a pertinent example. The positive energy balance (Read here excess food intake) many humans face would not exist without the invention of machinery to remove human labour in farming and food manufacture. The consequences of outsourcing of gathering our food are not limited only to the gym, weights and spandex. We could add to the list the birth of refrigeration, packaged foods, powered transport, television, the diet industry, Jane Fonda aerobics, education, sporting brands and all manner of things which are the result of us, the first generation in human history to have more people to die from over eating than malnutrition.

For every solution technology invents, it presents two more problems to be solved. It’s a less than a zero sum game where two new revenue streams arrive for every one it takes away. New unintended problems arise and new entrepreneurial solutions can be brought to market. Everything outside of the most basic physical needs are human inventions and the result of some previous invention. But ask me what the jobs in the distant future will be and I can’t tell you, just like a pre industrial human couldn’t fathom the need for ‘exercise’. And while AI will take away the need for many forms of intellectual labour in the near term, we will find new tasks for idle humans. Of this, I have zero doubt. Yes, there will be pain for the unimaginative, unprepared and stagnant humans during the transition, but it’s not the first time this has happened and our personal future depends on our personal actions.

Who knows, perhaps an entire industry might emerge to keep our brains in shape as we outsource left brain logic to the micro chip?

Get secret free chapters of my new book – The Lessons School Forgot – out now.

Omnipresent deflation & the longer tail

I’m convinced that pretty much everything is getting cheaper as time progresses. Relative to incomes there are not many things I can think of that have increased in price over time (excluding property). I wrote about this in a recent business manifesto post:

Omnipresent Deflation – While tabloids decry the rising cost of living and most everything we purchase, the reality is the opposite of what is being reported. Energy, housing, technology, entertainment and even food are all getting cheaper in ‘real terms’. Rapid technological change, Moore’s law and developing nation labour forces will ensure this continues. It’s creating the great business revenue maintenance challenge as we quickly move the price of ‘free’.

This is good news for startups. The barriers to entry have been infinitely reduced to well, almost nothing. One such service that is so cheap it is ridiculous is fiverr.com While it may not represent a bastion of quality, there sure is a lot of interesting services one can get for $5. Some of which could form interesting fun stuff to pimp your new brand. Many of these services could never have been available at such low prices… while many would never exist at all without the craziness that goes with all things web. Here’s a few of my fav’s from Fiverr:

Another case of the tail getting longer and the impact of connected labour.

Just when it feels like it’s all been done, it seems that the next idea will just take that niche a little further, and they’ll be some people who demand it too.

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