Tag: future

Programmable Currency is coming

Posted on by Steve Sammartino

China’s 2021 crackdown on crypto currencies has continued unabated. They’ve now banned all types of Crypto transactions. But don’t be mistaken, China wants nothing more than to move to a crypto economy. The Digital Yuan – their own Crypto.

Currency Creates Control

It is said that you need control the three M’s to capture and control a society. The Media, the Military and the Money. The loss of control of any of these elements can lead to destabilisation of a Government. China is clearly intent on having a firm grip on all three. I’m with China on this one. Any government in the world that moves to a non-sovereign currency (Like El Salvador has making Bitcoin its national currency), will lose control of its economy. That’s not to say we shouldn’t have crypto – just Government issued Crypto. And the reason is simple – crypto currency technology, has many features fiat currency does not. While we may not like China’s policies and record when it comes to human rights – they are out performing other global powers when it comes to economic and geo-political strategy.

The Birth of Programmable Currency

One of the main features of blockchain based crypto currencies is their potential to be digital, yet anonymous. They key word here is potential, because the direct opposite can also be true. The Digital Yuan features what is known as ‘Controllable Anonymity’ given that it will require citizens to register and download the central bank app on their smartphone. But it doesn’t end there. The currency will literally be programmable. The China Government will be able to not only ‘air drop‘ money into people’s accounts, but they will have the ability to easily freeze and close accounts – something which can’t be done with, let’s call them ‘democratic’ crypto currencies.

This is where the move to the Digital Yuan gets interesting. They won’t just be able to control their currency distribution digitally, they’ll also be able to define where and when it can be spent. It will enable China to have a level of control over their monetary system not seen in the history of currency. Transfer payments will take on an entirely new meaning. When economic stimulus is required, they’ll be able to set expiration dates on money transferred to ensure it is injected into the economy and not saved. If it is not spent by a certain date it will literally evaporate from people’s digital wallets. They’ll be able to dictate where certain amounts money can be spent. Grants for students or unemployment may only be able to be spent on groceries, rent and transport for example. If a wallet is presented for payment to an unauthorised type of vendor, the transaction will be declined. They’ll be able to shape spending and investment in a way the global economy has never seen. It will give them an inordinate economic advantage on a global scale. And while it does sound slightly dystopian, it is clearly aligned to all their other economic policies we’ve seen recently as they tighten their grip on their ever-wealthier populace.

Non-Fungible Currency

While it’s not my hope that Australia moves over to a system like this in totality – a more democratic version of programmable currency is an incredibly powerful idea. Countries like Australia and the USA could create incredible productivity via programmable currencies.

Let’s take Job keeper. As published via the independent Parliamentary Budget Office’s analysis –the Morrison government paid $12.5 billion of JobKeeper in the scheme’s first 13 weeks to firms that didn’t experience the turnover declines they forecast in order to qualify for it. Extrapolated to the full 26 weeks of JobKeeper 1.0, that amounts to $25 billion of taxpayers’ money misspent. Around $9 billion was paid to firms whose turnover not only failed to decline as forecast, but actually increased.

This overspend could have been avoided if we could code into the money that it could only be used in wages and salary. We could also remove amounts from their accounts post-hoc once it was clear the firm didn’t face a decline. We could also make sure jobseeker benefits have restrictions on where funds can be spent, which protect the sanctity of the system. We could direct future stimulus payments into preferred economic sectors.

In the future, we’ll all have crypto wallets with two balances – money we can spend as we choose, and restricted funds. The eventual upside is that we’ll enter a pre-emptive tax code – a code where money is directed before it is collected. We won’t re-allocate money after it’s earned, but pre-determine where it can go. This will be something corporations will be able to do with their employees and spending budgets, no purchase will order would be required when money can be programmed on where it can be spent in the first instance. Even parents will be able to use this with their children – restricted handouts if you will.

This fundamentally changes what currencies can do and are. It’s clear that this is a big shift – and it won’t suit everyone, but it is my belief that most economies around the globe will move to Sovereign Cryptos (AU-c / US-c) and remove cash entirely from the economy within the 2020’s.

When this happens, we can also expect traditional cryptos to take the place of cash – and be the bastion of the hidden economy and dark money, and tradies doing crypto cash jobs – humans always find a way to hack any system!

Having money which isn’t fungible really marries up with the shift to increased control and autocracy the world over. What we need to ensure is that this shift doesn’t leak into the free market and remains a tool for more efficient Government resource allocation.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve.

NFT to TV Star

Posted on by Steve Sammartino

So here it is: my latest world first! As part of The Rebound TV show, we are selling the final episode of Series Two as an NFT. This is the first ever Australian TV show to be sold as an NFT.

Here’s the kicker: The winning bidder of this NFT will also become part of the next series of The Rebound. We call it NFT to TV Star! We will mentor them in their business or career, as part of the Accelerator programme on Series Three and broadcast nationally in Australia. This NFT will be someone’s ticket to TV stardom and a new financial trajectory.

You can buy this NFT on Rarible.com – check out the NFT here. Heck, why not bid on it? At the time of writing, it’s a mere 10% of 1 Ether (around $323 USD). I’d love to have one of my readers win it and come on the show – that’d be rad.

As you may know, NFTs are tokens of digital assets. The cool part is that you can attach other entitlements to these tokens – all of which are verifiable on the Ethereum blockchain. In this case, the buyer wins the token to our Crypto episode, as well as the right to actually appear on the show. But it doesn’t end there. The person who buys it can sell the NFT to someone else, or even a company looking to promote their business (a TV show would be a pretty good place to do that). So the NFT could also become a traded asset that increases in value before a smart contract is executed against it.

Bonus: You can buy this experimental NFT gif here. It also comes with an hour long mentoring session from me or Tommy. I have already sold four of these this week. Only one is left! I have listed it at a very reasonable price of 0.01 Ether (around $30, the minimum listing price). It’s a good way to dip your toe in the water to experiment with the tech and learn – which is what I did. Get on it and chat NFT / future stuff with me!

This is a nice example of how we can better use digital assets by attaching real physical things and future contracts to them. The world is getting increasingly meta. This means the most important asset isn’t the technology itself, but how we apply our imagination to it.

Keep Thinking,

Steve.

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Surfing into the Future

Posted on by Steve Sammartino

There is almost no industry this technology revolution doesn’t touch – its impact is everywhere. How could anyone ever keep up with such broad and rapid change? Answer: no one can. But what we can do is understand the pattern of the changes, be in tune with enough of the shift that when something new arrives, we can get across it quickly. The best hack to do this is to leverage what you love.

Rather than trying to study all the emerging technologies on their own merits, assess them in the context of something you are totally into. While technology is reshaping industry, it has a similar effect on what we do in our free time as well. It could be your favourite sport, hobby or passion. For me, that happens to be surfing. I’m always using the lens of a surfer to experiment with and understand emerging tools, behaviours and business models – which I then relate back to my work as a futurist.

Some of the ways I’ve used surfing to gather tech knowledge include:

  • Building Sneaky Surf, an iPhone app. This tool tracked surf sessions, created social groups and integrated surf reports from weather APIs.
  • I learned to fly drones and understand their capability while making videos of my buddies surfing. This led to me working with the federal government to design new drone regulations for the AIS.
  • I used 3D printers to print experimental fins for my surfboards. Now I’m working on printing a stronger surfboard capable of withstanding the pressures of Melbourne’s new concrete wave pool. (Yes, that’s me in the picture above – YEW!)
  • I’m now working with UrbnSurf wave pool to run events demonstrating what businesses can learn about innovation through surfing. (Without artificial intelligence, the current wave pool boom would remain merely the stuff of childhood fantasies.)

In addition to my own little projects, I take a keen interest in the surf industry and how it is struggling to evolve its business model from a retail and brand perspective. Consider UrbnSurf or SurfLakes. Wave pool innovations really should have sprung from the surf industry giants like Quiksilver, Billabong and Rip Curl. I study the media implications of the World Championship Surf tour whose profile has evolved from a few highlights on weekend sports TV shows to being its own bonafide media empire. Innovations in surfing also include the impact of materials science on wetsuit design and how we can use tools like Google Earth to discover world class waves no one has ever ridden. Of course, the list is much longer, but you get the idea. All these tech knowledge hacks didn’t feel a bit like work and kept me at the beachhead of what’s next.

You too can transfer this principle into your passion and know more than just about anyone in your industry on emerging tech. Maybe even get a few tax deductions along the way!

While this post is mostly about hacking your own mind to learn and help your career, it’s about unlocking the power of our passions. While some people say it’s dangerous to mix up work and pleasure, I say we should never under estimate how much we cross-fertilise what you do for fun and turn it into funds.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve.

Beyond the NFT Bubble

Posted on by Steve Sammartino

Imagine for a minute that you owned something, but you did not control it, others had access to it, they could share it, use it, copy it, and that there was an infinite number of exact replicas of the thing you owned. If you’re asking the question: ‘How does that amount to ownership?’ – you’re not alone. Welcome to the world of NFTs, or non-fungible tokens.

NFTs are a closely related cousin to cryptocurrency, and as far as booming asset classes go, NFTs are the star of early 2021.

NFT – WTF? – Non-fungible tokens have been used to sell ownership of digital goods and I feel a natural evolution within the crypto economy. NFTs allow buyers to purchase and claim ‘ownership’ of a digital good. At this stage, the good is usually an image, a GIF, animations, or even a piece of video footage. The ownership element takes the form of a unique digital token, which lives on a blockchain as proof of ownership. Unlike a traditional cryptocurrency, these are not fungible – in that they cannot be broken into pieces and partially sold.

The primary purpose at this point has been in support of the artists themselves who trade in digital art.

Now for the weird bit… The only thing the buyer truly owns with NFTs is the claim to ownership, which is the token itself, but not the actual asset. Buyers do not have exclusive use or control of the asset.

The NFT Bubble – As is often the case in burgeoning economies, artists have led the way. Some artists are selling their NFTs for serious money. The advantage for these artists is that if the NFT is on sold again, they get a percentage commission of future sales via smart contracts. A new version of the ‘internet famous’ Nyan Cat’ – (the image at the top of this post) fetched the original artist Chris Torres US$590,000 (which was 300 Ether at the time of sale). The Artist Grimes (also the partner of Elon Musk) has sold art worth more than US$6 million this month. This included some individual pieces for nearly $400,000, as well as pieces for which up to 700 NFTs were sold of the exact same item – yes, you read that right – over 700 claims of ownership – against the same copy-able digital asset. Let’s just say it is a very good result for Grimes. While the digital artist Beeple has been the absolute gangster of this game selling his piece 5000 Days for US$69 million through Christies auction house. The advantage for these artists is that if the NFT is on sold, they get a percentage commission of future sales via smart contracts.

If you think this is an irrational bubble – then trust your instincts.

The Future of NFTs – NFTs present an interesting future for much more than art, but potentially all forms of creative work. After the bubble bursts, the potential for smart contracts around the ownership of not just digital assets, cannot be understated.

Imagine having the rights to the NFT of a song, an image, or even a sporting highlight.  Via the use of smart self executing contracts, royalties could be paid to you as its rightful owner, verifiable on a blockchain. It could change the way monetisation of the internet works, it could go from from a battle of attention and advertising dollars, to actually rewarding the creators of the digital content we consume.

On the flip side imagine you want to use a Drake song on a Youtube video you’ve created. Today, copyright wouldn’t allow it – it would be pulled down. But in the future musical artists could have NFT contracts against their songs which allow you to use it, and pay the artist directly a few cents per view. All of a sudden artists can escape the Youtube vortex and get paid hundreds of dollars from million of fans around the world using their music on their content.All we’d need to make this happen is an AI engine which scours the internet assigning creative credit and revenue to artists in much the same way that google crawls the web. But this would be done via a BlockChain protocol. This would be far more profitable than what they get from advertising dollars and subscription services, and the occasional big pay day from an advertising campaign using a song. It would be better for the artists and consumers. The only losers would be big tech and the music industry.

NFT’s Get Physical – The Kings of Leon did a really interesting NFT play on their recent album.  They launched a token priced at $50 which includes enhanced media — kind of like an alternate, moving album cover — as well as a digital download of the music, and a limited-edition vinyl. They also had other NFT’s which would give purchasers lifetimes access to concert tickets and things like front row seats. This is where things can and should go. We need to remove the delineation between the physical and digital worlds – because they are quite frankly, the same place. We need to think of NFT’s as a set of rights and conditions for which contracting parties can mutually benefit and create long term loyalty. If we do that, then we’ll have a pretty good chance of moving away from big tech as the arbiters of all that we do when it comes to transacting online.

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Keep Thinking,

Steve. 

 

 

Make it Real – Write it Down

Posted on by Steve Sammartino

Things of value need to be held onto and protected. Some things become more valuable the longer we hang onto them, or when we put them to use and unlock their potential. Our thoughts are one of these things.

There’s a good friend I speak to nearly every day. We chat about life, business and technology. We’ve arrived at the conclusion that we come up with our best ideas when bouncing off each other on the phone. One of the phrases we’ve got in the habit of saying to each other is:

“Write that sh*t down”

And we do. We both trade in ideas for a living and we know that writing them down isn’t just a smart hack to remember them – it actually makes them real. It takes something from being ephemeral to existing in the physical world. It’s the first part of getting the idea into the real world – it’s a chasm we must cross.

For more than 15 years, I’ve been keeping a physical journal of tasks, to do lists, people I’ve met, things we discussed, business ideas and technology hacks. It’s now the most important part of my library. I still go back and refer to catch ups I had years ago to review those thoughts. If I’m in a flat spot, I go to them as though they are a collective secret cave filled with conceptual goodness. Many of the ideas I’ve kept in said journals are now part of The Rebound – which you can catch up on here. (our ratings increased 25% since the first week!) 

Never underestimate the power of your thoughts and ideas. Make sure you capture them so they don’t fade into the ether. Your thoughts have you inside them – your personal experiences and perspectives. They are far too valuable to waste. While perhaps only very few of them will might morph into a project, only those that are written down ever will.

Bonus Stuff

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Keep Thinking,

Steve.

 

Tech Investing Tricks

Posted on by Steve Sammartino

First off – here’s a link to the very first episode of my new TV show  The Rebound to watch on 9Now. So far the feedback has been amazing. We’ll be doing lots of content on the social channels for it too – all of which are here.

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The Tale of 2 Tech IPO’s

Recent IPO filings in the USA for two tech companies Door Dash & Airbnb are quite revealing for investors. Given that everyone is so in love with technology investments, it seems many players are claiming to be something they are not. It’s important not just from a regulatory perspective, but for anyone who plans to invest in the sector. So today, I’m going to help you get a better at understanding true technology / software plays versus those who, in truth pretend to be something they are not. Today, almost every business relies on software in some way. But those which are hybrid software – human labour businesses faces very different economics from true software pure plays. In short, always be nervous when a company calls itself a tech firm when their service isn’t possible without humans in every customer interaction. This is key. Below I have two examples. In my view one is a terrific technology firm, and the other is a disaster in the making.

DOOR DASH – IPO

DoorDash is a large US based firm specialising in app based food deliveries. Here are some of their key numbers below:

  • Filed to float with a valuation around $13b.
  • Lost $450m last year.
  • Has already raised $1.9 billion from investors
  • Relies on army’s of Gig workers who also happen to be fighting for rights / wages / greater compensation & benefits.

Main issue is that this are not real technology company, because it is really just using software to connect physical labour. The problem is that it has a technology company valuation. No amount of scale will solve their problem of ‘labour’ and if this can be automated via something like ‘Local Drone Delivery’ – then the restaurants can do it themselves and save the 20-30% fee they pay such services. The app delivery sector seems to be falsely propped up by Venture Capital investments so they can expand quickly, even if they lose money. By the way, these VC’s aren’t silly – but they’ll make their money when they exit at the IPO – it is the retail investors who will get caught carrying the can. The reason retail investors buy such stocks is that they falsely believe it will be like Google or Facebook, which too were unprofitable in their expansion phases. The fundamental difference here though, is that they were software pure plays.  The delivery sector has the pesky people and cars problem which won’t just magically be solved.

We can add to this that the sector is highly competitive – with no real competitive moat. It tends to be lots of competitors in different geographies (in Aust we have MenuLog / Deliveroo / Uber Eats) all of which are unprofitable. Eventually restaurants will work out it is cheaper to do their own delivery with staff. If this sector is to survive at all, the future is probably just for a software firm to send orders to places for a single digit percentage fee – and not provide drivers or deliveries.

AIRBNB IPO

Now let’s compare this to internet darling Airbnb. They also filed for IPO, and some of their key numbers are below.

  • Valuation around $30b.
  • Raising $3b in capital at float.
  • Lost almost $700m last year.
  • But, turned a $219 profit this quarter.
  • Sacked 25% of workforce at start of the pandemic – smart rightsizing.

They key difference with this firm is that it doesn’t rely on any physical labour to perform each transaction. It is purely connection via software, and hence deserves a technology company style valuation. It also has the advantage in that real estate is usually a solid margin business with higher price per transaction (Airbnb averages $167 USD per transaction). Compared to low order values of food delivery, it is simply a better business model. It has less running costs, no labour issues, higher value per transaction and it takes a smaller percentage clip (3%) from users. I feel this is a truly global powerhouse in the making with a very strong long term future.

The stories we tell ourselves and our customers (investors in this case) are all important. The narrative itself can make something worth twice the price – just think of luxury handbags. But when it comes to investing, we need to be sure the story matches reality, because eventually the numbers will reflect the truth, and the market will wake up.

Keep Thinking,

Steve.

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Graduate to Greatness

Posted on by Steve Sammartino

To make it to the upper echelon in any field, we need to be able to do one thing:

Graduate from competence to confidence.

The foundation of any career is technical capability. You need to prove you are a competent accountant, lawyer, marketer, electrician, whatever. This is your time in the field and getting some metaphorical dirt under your fingernails. It’s when you convert study and training into action. It’s also when you find out that nothing is more valuable than real world experience. At this point in your career, you ARE the factor of production. It’s a vital stage to becoming a leader in any field – people want to know you’ve had your time on the tools. But you can’t stay there. You have to graduate.

The next phase in your career is all about confidence. In fact, you don’t even have to be the greatest ‘technocrat’ to rise above. It’s all about the belief you have in yourself to be more than someone who manages tasks and projects.

This time, there is no graduation ceremony.

You need to decide when you deserve and want to be more – and it is all about attitude. The ironic thing is the people who give you the chance to lead in your field are looking for the signs that you’ve made this internal decision. They are not looking for technical ability. They are looking for vision and leadership. When it comes to decision makers around you and your career, one simple thing is true: they believe what you believe. If you don’t believe in yourself, they’ll be able smell it.

The reason this matters is that you’ll never be able to know everything in your field.  No one does, no one ever will. There’ll always be someone who knows more, and the next generation coming up will have new technical skills and abilities you won’t. Yes, it’s important to be across what’s new and its impact, but going back to study its implementation is a fool’s errand. Leave that to the newbies. If you go there, you simply drag yourself back into the competence pool. You become an undergraduate again.

Don’t think for a second that Steve Jobs was writing code for the new iPhone, Elon Musk is sketching out blueprints for new car batteries or Jeff Bezos is designing his new in-home drones. They have competent people to do that for them. How many times have you seen people who are great technocrats, the best at getting stuff done, who know more than anyone in their field, but never seem to get to the top? It’s because they didn’t graduate. I used to write code, build new technologies and be very hands on – but now, I get other people to do that for me instead. My job is to think, write and speak about technology and economics. I graduated and it was the best thing I ever did in my career. I didn’t ask for permission. I just did it.

Sometimes you might even need to change places to graduate to confidence. For example, you may be overlooked for promotional opportunities in your current organisation. As soon as you are overlooked – move on. If management doesn’t have confidence in you – leave and leave quick. Go somewhere where you can refresh your self confidence and your personal brand. I’ve seen people who were out of favour in one company, change places and go on to become CEO elsewhere or start a successful business. The world’s a big place.

Next week, I’ll lay out the three competencies that great careers are built on, once you graduate from the operational level.

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Keep thinking,

Steve.