There’s lots of predictions every year of what will happen. But before we do that, it’s worth considering some things that won’t change in 2018.
- People will continue to use Facebook, and hand over the almanac of their lives, despite its lack of responsibility, and refusal to invest in stopping inappropriate use of their platform. It will continue to create deep echo chambers and division in society. Its leader Zuckerberg will continue to believe that Facebook is, and should be the internet. Remember they’re not a media business, but a technology company, right?
- The 4 monopolists (Facebook, Amazon, Google and Apple) will continue to dominate the internet and be joined by a couple of others, possibly Netflix. They’ll continue to point out their small market share in their revenue arenas, while their share of digital infrastructure use and attention will grow further. Their power will increase, with the convenience they provide blinding the populace to the longer term externalities.
- Brands reliant on these new infrastructure providers above will continue to take the short term revenue solutions provided (foolishly growing their vegetables in someone else’s garden), while handing over direct connections to their own customers – which they could instead build with some effort.
- The jobs and growth narrative corroborated by Government and large corporations will continue to allow them to write laws and tax breaks which suit these new masters of the universe. Like last year, there won’t by any trickle down.
- Leading edge thinkers, will continue another year of educating the populace on the current problems and future problems being caused by the above behaviours and that the internet needs saving. These will gain momentum, but probably won’t change consumer behaviour much in the coming 12 months. There will be change, but not until the full cost of these behaviours becomes more evident. Only once events caused by the big few hurt the general population will there be action.
- Some big fines will be given to the above companies for violations (Think in billions) but unfortunately they’ll be financial rounding errors against their free cashflow.
Wow – that was dark and semi-apocalyptic – but watch out for tomorrow where I turn this reality into a set of positive actions and prognostications for the future. The year 2018 will be a good one for those who choose it to be, but before anything can ever be improved, we must first admit where we are… a good news post to follow 🙂
Have a great year, Steve.